Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[X Fan]

Oh, ok, so TSLAQ loves Tesla now. You're REALLY not very bright.

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This is the downside of Mods taking a more passive approach....trolls/TSLAQ folks will post nonsense and clutter this discussion.

I welcome fact based or even SWAG views on TSLA's financials/future but this guy is just spouting garbage.

 

[StealthP3D]

This won't have too much of an impact on the SP. Neither will any lawsuits follow.

Therefore, to those few panicking about it, please compare it to the "taking Tesla private at 420" tweets and the Thai cave diver incident, both of which led to lawsuits and an image problem.

If you truly take an effort to make the comparison, you can see his current rantings are very tame. People will have forgotten about them very quickly.

My takeaway from this is you think Elon's current controversy won't be nearly as effective at getting free publicity and boosting the share price as the whoppers he pulled off 2018- 2019?

That raises the question then, what kind of outrageousness is it going to take to get us firmly into the quadruple digits?

Perhaps a romp on a petrol-powered JetSki with two beautiful women sans bikinis?

 

[Curt Renz]

StreetInsider - this morning:

Tesla (TSLA) PT Raised to $1,020 at JMP Securities on Multiple Expansion to Pre-COVID Levels

Tesla (TSLA) PT Raised to $939 at Piper Sandler

Benzinga - this morning:

Oppenheimer Maintains Outperform on Tesla, Raises Price Target to $968

 

[StealthP3D]

Your post made me realize for the first time (yes, I can be slow at times) that a FSD Semi will most likely need camera's on the trailer for a good view of the surroundings. Therefore there will have to be custom built Tesla-trailers as well.

Or am I wrong in this assumption? (I always thought the Semi would be just that, the front part of the truck)

That would be a real engineering challenge for a company like Tesla to delve into cameras that could somehow communicate through the air without wires! And they would need a method to hook them on the back of the trailer. Maybe some sheet metal nails?

Oh snap! Screw that, I guess they would have to build custom trailers! /s

 

[jeewee3000]

My takeaway from this is you think Elon's current controversy won't be nearly as effective as getting free publicity and boosting the share price as the whoppers he pulled off 2018- 2019?

That raises the question then, what kind of outrageousness is it going to take to get us firmly into the quadruple digits?

Perhaps a romp on a petrol-powered JetSki with two beautiful women sans bikinis?

My post was aimed at those few that feel Elon's remarks regarding COVID-shutdowns will negatively impact the SP. To those I say: no, I do not believe so.

Will it impact the SP in a positive way? Possibly yes, but I contribute SP rises more to the analyst upgrades and the strong earnings. (Lots of hidden gold nuggets in there, as some others pointed out. For example the lessons learned from Model 3 did pay dividens (thank god))

So I think we're on the same side in this argument.

(Except on one thing: I don't like Elon getting into lawsuits to "boost the SP". Just let the numbers tell the story. They are strong enough.)

 

[ZeApelido]

Not at all I love Tesla and Elon and all thing related, and think by 2022 they will have come through as as a major auto maker globally (milllions of cars a year).
Cheese
But the next 6 months to 2 years could destroy them unless they navigate well.
Tomato
I think they will though and will buy back in when it's clear they made it.

Were you working the McDonald's drive thru window when making this post???

 

[jerry33]

Is it likely that cybertruck factory will need no paint shop? Maybe some chemical treatment for underbody and none steel parts.

If so, then no stamping and no paint shop?!

It's 100% certain.

 

[ZeApelido]

My takeaway from this is you think Elon's current controversy won't be nearly as effective as getting free publicity and boosting the share price as the whoppers he pulled off 2018- 2019?

That raises the question then, what kind of outrageousness is it going to take to get us firmly into the quadruple digits?

Perhaps a romp on a petrol-powered JetSki with two beautiful women sans bikinis?

Look maybe I'm too hungry, but why does everyone keep talking about hamburgers here?

 

[jeewee3000]

That would be a real engineering challenge for a company like Tesla to delve into cameras that could somehow communicate through the air without wires! And they would need a method to hook them on the back of the trailer. Maybe some sheet metal nails?

I'm misunderstanding you possibly, apologies (English is not my first language).

But I'm just saying I realized that indeed, you would need the (ELI5) back part of the truck built by Tesla also, with integrated camera's, connected via wires to the front end of the truck (like they do with the electricity cables for lights, braking cables).

My previous assumption of Tesla only building the front part of the truck came from the assumption FSD would be possible with only vision from the cabin (camera's on the cabin), just like the human Semi drivers only see what they can see from up there.

 

[Jack6591]

I’ve never been a fan of utility power poles. They are UGLY.

Battery Day will amplify the capabilities of renewable energy. The disruption of utility companies draws nigh.

 

[Eugene Ash]

If I may chime in on the Elon-COVID-rant(s) on Twitter and the conference call:

He may have expressed himself poorly, but the content was earnest and only an expression of his opinion. (Freedom of speech, it's becoming rare these days )

This won't have too much of a (EDIT) negative impact on the SP. Neither will any lawsuits follow.

Therefore, to those few panicking about it, please compare it to the "taking Tesla private at 420" tweets and the Thai cave diver incident, both of which led to lawsuits and an image problem.

If you truly take an effort to make the comparison, you can see his current rantings are very tame. People will have forgotten about them very quickly. No harm done.

-------------------------------------------
ANECDOTE
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(Maybe the opposite (of harm done) but that remains to be seen. Personally I always advocate to keep calm but that is not always easy.

When I was studying Law at University some undisclosed time ago, a Professor in my second year - which happens to also be a famous Belgian politician - talked about a political debate he had the night before (which his students had witnessed).

He told us then and there: (Dutch) "Verlies nooit je zelfbeheersing. Zoniet verlies je al je geloofwaardigheid en daarmee het debat." (Rough translation: Never lose self-control/your temper. If not, you will lose all your credibility and therefore the debate.)

Those words have stuck with me to this day and I live by them. That's why I find Elon's response a bit clumsy, but hey, he's human and I'll never lose faith in his abilities/vision.)

That is cultural. Dutch culture values evenness and measured responses.
Bernie is human, Elon is human.
Humans like humans on a mission, not corporate drones like Hatchet.

 

[Tim S]

Its Apr 30th 2020, there's a global pandemic decimating the economy, and TSLA Jan2022 $1k calls are $220. If someone had told you that 6 months ago, you'd lock them up and throw away the key.

$230 now. I have one of those that I paid $90 for 6 weeks ago
Edit: My mistake, I have a Jun 2022 call, not Jan. Sorry.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Breaking: US Mulls Retaliation vs China Over Virus

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla has payments outstanding to supplier for all the parts they use to build the cars etc. They are at $4Bn which is normally ok as the have a short cash conversion cycle (selling cars and realising revenue). However with the factory closed this is going to be due soon.

So, if you listen to the ER you’ll come across Zach addressing this point exactly. Let me just give you a little hint, accounts payable is expected to be covered by mid-quarter at which point Tesla will then experience a 30? 45? 60? day lull of not having to pay a cent for materials/parts.

Let me also remind you, Tesla has been selling their large inventory of cars. My guess is that money is going to payables rather than paying for Hawaiian vacations and caviar.

Let me also remind you Tesla can quite literally roll a car off the line and sell it right out of the Fremont parking lot - meaning the initial restart of production can immediately start making them money until such point as production is fully ramped and excess cars can ship other places.

Tesla has +$8 billion dollars in hand. They’ve significantly reduced expenses, etc., etc.

This might all be too complicated for you, or more accurately it’s likely you don’t care to know because you have an agenda. Regardless, I say it in case a lurker gets lulled in by your fear mongering.

 

[jeewee3000]

That is cultural. Dutch culture values evenness and measured responses.
Bernie is human, Elon is human.
Humans like humans on a mission, not corporate drones like Hatchet.

Not cursing or raising your voice does not imply you are a corporate drone.

Sigh.
TMC really is a minefield these days. I get stomped on by people I agree with for miniscule reasons, while trolls run rampant.

Anyway, go longs! I'm very bullish for the next couple of weeks.

 

[mickificki]

Breaking: US Mulls Retaliation vs China Over Virus

it'd be nice if you posted a link or actual article?

 

[LN1_Casey]

It's 100% certain.

No, it'll also have the Y there, which will need a paint shop and stamping. But there will be lines there that skip those steps for the Cybertruck.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

it'd be nice if you posted a link or actual article?

Google is your friend

 

[JusRelax]

Oh man, Ford's not gonna like this Munro video:

 

[jbcarioca]

I don't mean to encourage trolling but I'd like to learn more about accounts payable.

A brief lesson specific to Tesla would be most welcome

A quick superficial look at the Q1 report shows Tesla with actual positive operating cash flow when excluding the $981 million inventory increase, thus $86 million. Q1 is typically the worst quarter for auto sales and Q1 losses are quite common. Tesla had an inventory increase only because of inability to deliver the finished product that buyers worldwide were ready to take.

Accounts payable were $3,970 million
Current Liabilities were $11,986
Current Assets were. $14,893

During a difficult quarter, ending with the prime selling weeks almost totally halted with factories closed, Tesla still ended out with a 1.25 current ratio.
Further had they ended as a normal quarter they'd have hard roughly $15,800 million in current assets with not much change in current liabilities.

As several very well informed accounting people who know the auto industry have repeated observed, Tesla has the strongest balance sheet in the industry.

Today as all the others are in intensive care Tesla is robustly healthy. Without a doubt The $354 million of regulatory credit sales were hugely consequential. However, had it been business as usual and the inventory had therefore not increased, Tesla would still have had $627 better cash flow.

Frankly this is amazingly positive news. The only way to spin it negatively to to compare 4Q , historically the strongest auto quarter with Q1 , historically the weakest quarter.

Show me another capital goods manufacturer with such strong results. Hard to do because thus far there have been exactly zero.