Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Batteries are going to replace peaker plants. They are already more economical, and only getting more so as batteries drop in price.

This would probably already have happened if the Texas legislators hadn't decided to call batteries as energy production rather than energy storage. This means that the distribution companies, such as OnCore, are not allowed to use batteries to store electricity.

 

[mickificki]

Google is your friend

a better friend is IGNORE

 

[SageBrush]

So you think a depression would be better than a methodical plan to open the economy back up?

I think "methodical" means very little unless you can provide details how the "method" will reduce infectivity.
Do not misunderstand me -- I am not advocating for SAH per se, but I do understand that the devil is in the details of what is regulated by the authorities and how compliant the population is with the dictates.

The people that want a stop to SAH yesterday because it is costing them money but have no clue how the epidemic will take off afterwards are morons. And be clear: a step-level opening of the economy is just creative accounting meant to give authorities an easy way to back-pedal; it is not a fundamental change to the disease dynamics.

 

[kbM3]

We seem to be getting into the same type of qualitative discussion that lead many to have a negative feeling about the Q1 results that we can now see were unfounded. Q1 was not as good as it would have been without CV but it was not a disaster.

If we assume 13 weeks of production in GF Shanghai at 3.5k vehicles per week plus 6 weeks of production in Fremont we can then add say 15k sales of inventory vehicles from Q1. That would give total sales of 108k vehicles in Q2. That is getting very close to Q4 19 sales levels. Reducing the number of weeks of production in Fremont to only 4 weeks still gets close to the sales volume of Q3 19. Neither of these scenarios would appear to generate significant cash burn unless I am missing something significant.

Don’t assume Tesla just hits the ground running when Fremont opens. From the update letter:

“It is difficult to predict how quickly vehicle manufacturing and it’s global supply chain will return to prior levels.”

Also: “ For our US factories, it remains uncertain how quickly we and our suppliers will be able to ramp production after resuming operations.“

Even though Tesla is very vertically integrated, they still have tons of suppliers, some of whom are struggling. Getting these all ramped back up, and operating at full speed is no trivial task.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Current marketcap picture.

• TSLA worth 76% of Toyota (was worth 1/5 of Toyota in 2016)
• TSLA worth more than Honda, BMW, Daimler and GM combined
• TSLA worth 7.5 times the value of Ford

 

[SageBrush]

Last time I checked over 95% of deaths are people over 80

Still reading Pravda I see

 

[StealthP3D]

$230 now. I have one of those that I paid $90 for 6 weeks ago

Charles Schwab is showing them at $203 (last trade) or $199 (bid). The share price has more than doubled from $400 as well from 6 weeks ago. Do you remember the price of the shares when you bought the calls? Because I would have expected stronger performance relative to the shares given the strong run-up we've seen. Because if the share price went the other way the calls would have lost most of their value.

 

[SageBrush]

I have great hope that the COVID-19 Indicators will continue to improve and this Order can be revised before May 31, 2020 in a manner that focuses more on behavior (social distancing, face masks, etc.) and risk of disease transmission in contrast to categories of businesses (essential vs. non-essential).

That person GETS IT

 

[StealthP3D]

• TSLA worth 7.5 times the value of Ford

Ford is trading for less than its book value (by about 30%). That means the market understands it's probably not a going concern. The potential for a government bailout is probably the only reason it's even worth that.

 

[Tim S]

it'd be nice if you posted a link or actual article?

I have no idea if this source (teletrader.com) is reliable or accurate. I just googled the headline.

US mulls action against China over virus response - report

 

[SOULPEDL]

It's 100% certain.

Sticker shop maybe for some color.

 

[Driver Dave]

Great numbers.

Bad Elon.

Elon talking about public policy on a pandemic is like
Fauci talking about landing rockets on barges.

He may have some points, but overall, he’s just not quite on the actual reality and facts of things.

I’ll put in super harsh terms. If Elon’s mom just went through what my friend’s Dad just went through, hooked up to a tube, dying with his family stuck on the other side of a glass wall, he’d have a way different outlook.

Other than that, great numbers. Keep it up Elon. You are doing great work. Just don’t get ahead of yourself on things you just don’t quite know yet.

Just keep checking yourself: “Am I Fauci talking rockets?”

 

[Nocturnal]

Calling it now. Now that Ford is out of the picture Amazon is going to wind up buying Rivian. (or effectively doing so)

This would probably already have happened if the Texas legislators hadn't decided to call batteries as energy production rather than energy storage. This means that the distribution companies, such as OnCore, are not allowed to use batteries to store electricity.

That just means that Texans will pay more for power until that is resolved.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think "methodical" means very little unless you can provide details how the "method" will reduce infectivity.
Do not misunderstand me -- I am not advocating for SAH per se, but I do understand that the devil is in the details of what is regulated by the authorities and how compliant the population is with the dictates.

The people that want a stop to SAH yesterday because it is costing them money but have no clue how the epidemic will take off afterwards are morons. And be clear: a step-level opening of the economy is just creative accounting meant to give authorities an easy way to back-pedal; it is not a fundamental change to the disease dynamics.

You remind me of all the people who want to have a meeting to create a committee to discuss an issue for like, forever, but never wants to take the first step to ‘do’ because;

a) that requires you to get your hands dirty
b) what if you’re wrong
c) what if it doesn’t work exactly

Stop lecturing us and instead do us a favor and call the Alameda County officials and tell them you’ll be there later this afternoon to show them how to do it.

At what point will you tire of simply talking about how you’re right and others are wrong and get off your phone/laptop and go do? Asking for a lot of people.

 

[SOULPEDL]

How come there's no FUD here today? No hard selling the sell story... unusual?

Recalling I wrote this just yesterday, we now have our answer. They were all waiting for today.
So obvious!!!

 

[mrdoubleb]

View attachment 537464

I’ve never been a fan of utility power poles. They are UGLY.

Battery Day will amplify the capabilities of renewable energy. The disruption of utility companies draws nigh.

To be fair, at least over here you only see this in the countryside where the cost/benefit ratio wasn't too high due to population density... in cities these has all been forced underground. While local (residential) battery storage is great, I think it needs to work hand-in-hand with grid balancing.

 

[jerry33]

Calling it now. Now that Ford is out of the picture Amazon is going to wind up buying Rivian. (or effectively doing so)


That just means that Texans will pay more for power until that is resolved.

Correct. When my current contract expires in a couple of months the next one will be around 40% higher.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Still reading Pravda I see

@Rammstein may have slightly exaggerated but read and refer to fact 2:

The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

California is apparently about to close all the states beaches and wants local police to enforce.

I'm about to go full blown Elon on this thing.

 

[Tim S]

Charles Schwab is showing them at $203 (last trade) or $199 (bid). The share price has more than doubled from $400 as well from 6 weeks ago. Do you remember the price of the shares when you bought the calls? Because I would have expected stronger performance relative to the shares given the strong run-up we've seen. Because if the share price went the other way the calls would have lost most of their value.

My mistake, I have a Jun 2022 call, not Jan. I edited my post. Sorry.

I bought it for $90 on 3/20/2020 when the SP was ~$440. It's now worth ~$222 with the SP at $820.