Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Consumer Reports returns to the roots of Journalism: "If you don't buy this magazine, we'll shoot this dog": (I expect a prompt full investigation by the SEC LOL!)

The Consumer Reports story was based on stale data, ignored preferences stated by actual consumers, and was leaked to certain Media in advance (shades of the Bloomberg Bear Raid on Sep 18).

Starting at 12:37pm today, Traderz sold 537K shares in first 3 min, and 1.13M shares in first 10 min. Best part, everyone knows it's a coordinated hit-piece, so large actors trade with confidence that 'this too shall pass'. SP dipped an absolutely predictable 10 bux from the Open to the Low. Jolly jokers... this their M.O.

So comedy aside, let's have a quick look at TSLA technicals:

• Today's Low (290.50) was within 30 cents of the Lower Bollinger Band (290.21)
  • this is close to a Technical Bottom
• Mid-BBs at 305.95 (above today's rge)
  • this is a hold signal
• Upper-BB (321.69) and 50-day MA (322.16) now within 50 cents
  
  • this is another Technical Bottom
• the Upper-Lower BB range (31.18) is the tightest since early December
  • it will take some news to move the SP out of this tight range
• My conclusion: TSLA is primed for the next run up
  • but when?

So what triggers the next run up? There are many possiblilties:

• March 1st Bond repayment in cash
  
• Q1 Delivery numbers
• a late-April Q1 ER
• introduction of the Model 3 SR
• availability of a $35K Model 3
  
• Model Y reveal
• Tesla Pickup reveal

There's so many positives with TSLA, it takes an entire @Buckminster to maintain a tally of all the Milestones ahead of this company (thanks for the frequent updates, mate!)

I miss anything? What do you think?

Cheers!

 

[KarenRei]

Note Tesla's statement today in response to the CR decision:

"Not only are our cars the safest and best performing vehicles available today, but we take feedback from our customers very seriously and quickly implement improvements any time we hear about issues. That’s just one of the reasons why, in this very same survey from Consumer Reports, Model 3 was rated as the #1 most satisfying car, and why Tesla vehicles have topped Consumer Reports’ Owner Satisfaction survey every year since 2013 – the first year Tesla was included in it."

“We’re setting an extremely high bar for Model 3. We have already made significant improvements to correct any issues that Model 3 customers may have experienced that are referenced in this report, and our return policy allows any customer who is unhappy with their car to return it for a full refund. This new data from Consumer Reports comes from their annual Owner Satisfaction survey, which runs from July through September, so the vast majority of these issues have already been corrected through design and manufacturing improvements, and we are already seeing a significant improvement in our field data.”​

Note the final part: Tesla is already seeing "significant improvements". (To the extent you trust Tesla's data.)

What is the logic in Consumer Reports not recommending their subscribers to buy the objectively safest, most satisfying car in their category?

What is the logic in Consumer Reports recommending less safe, less satisfying cars that might get owners injured or killed with a higher probability, just to save them from ... "panel gaps" and "paint specks"?

I mean, I would support a decision that includes reliability data that impacts safety or utility, but most of the defects CR listed were cosmetic.

The "owner satisfaction" score already includes reliability: an unreliable car will make owners less satisfied.

So CR ist basically double counting the negative votes of owners and is using mostly cosmetic reliability complaints as grounds to disqualify the safest, most satisfying car on the list...

There's also the observation bias issue.

Name another car where most of its buyers showed up to delivery with a "checklist" of possible issues, compiled on the internet, to scour the car for. Who does this for any other car? Specifically because of the anti-Tesla FUD, buyers were hypervigilant. Scouring the car is great for buyers, but it's an automatic bias when you're basing a quality survey on self reporting: people who scour their vehicle in detail are much more likely to find issues than those who don't.

Any body shop that does PPF will tell you that most new cars have at least some minor cosmetic issue or another, which the owner generally has not noticed. That's why paint correction is the first step to applying PPF.

 

[UncaNed]

The March 2019 edition of Consumer Reports scores Model X well in the "Yes I'd Buy It Again" section on page 58, however, on page 61 where they purport to "evaluate the latest... while inexplicably listing Model X90D with a low score of 56 despite model X90 not having produced for quite a while- wasn't it a year or two since they offered those?

I am a subscriber, and I plan to complain about that, I'm thinking about what else to say about Model 3 while I'm at it.

 

[RobStark]

Note Tesla's statement today in response to the CR decision:

"Not only are our cars the safest and best performing vehicles available today, but we take feedback from our customers very seriously and quickly implement improvements any time we hear about issues. That’s just one of the reasons why, in this very same survey from Consumer Reports, Model 3 was rated as the #1 most satisfying car, and why Tesla vehicles have topped Consumer Reports’ Owner Satisfaction survey every year since 2013 – the first year Tesla was included in it."

“We’re setting an extremely high bar for Model 3. We have already made significant improvements to correct any issues that Model 3 customers may have experienced that are referenced in this report, and our return policy allows any customer who is unhappy with their car to return it for a full refund. This new data from Consumer Reports comes from their annual Owner Satisfaction survey, which runs from July through September, so the vast majority of these issues have already been corrected through design and manufacturing improvements, and we are already seeing a significant improvement in our field data.”​

Note the final part: Tesla is already seeing "significant improvements".

What is the logic in Consumer Reports not recommending their subscribers to buy the objectively safest, most satisfying car in their category?

What is the logic in Consumer Reports recommending less safe, less satisfying cars that might get owners injured or killed with a higher probability, just to save them from ... "panel gaps" and "paint specks"?

I mean, I would support a decision that includes reliability data that impacts safety or utility, but most of the defects CR listed were cosmetic.

The "owner satisfaction" score already includes reliability: an unreliable car will make owners less satisfied.

So CR ist basically double counting the negative votes of owners and is using mostly cosmetic reliability complaints as grounds to disqualify the safest, most satisfying car on the list...

CR doesn't trust manufactures own claims and they shouldn't because they are likely biased. OEMs are also incentivized to just plain lie.

Two years ago Tesla said FWD issues were largely fixed and that those problems were on early cars. FWD issues are still being seen on CR surveys on 2018 models and Model X ranks second worst in reliability largely because of it.

Any potential buyer can see the numbers for themselves.

Highest owner satisfaction combined with reliability problems that require servicing and servicing that can be problematic.

Do you want a clean super fun car with cutting edge tech that is also the safest ever built but has some reliability problems?

My answer is Yes. My eldest sister only considers buying Hondas and Toyotas because reliability/dependability is #1 factor for her and those are the brands that have earned California baby boomer's trust.

 

[Fact Checking]

Name another car where most of its buyers showed up to delivery with a "checklist" of possible issues, compiled on the internet, to scour the car for. Who does this for any other car? Specifically because of the anti-Tesla FUD, buyers were hypervigilant.

Exactly - and CR's methodology not only didn't correct for this bias, they are increasing it.

After all who would buy cars with such panel gaps:

Oh, it's a 2018 BMW:

Never mind!

 

[UncaNed]

BTW, why would any average consumer subscribe to Consumer Reports?
The internet is full of free and excellent info.

And the items they evaluate are usually not the same models you'll find for sale, so it's not been very helpful when you really need advice for shopping decisions.

 

[Fact Checking]

Any potential buyer can see the numbers for themselves.

Highest owner satisfaction combined with reliability problems that require servicing and servicing that can be problematic.

Do you want a clean super fun car with cutting edge tech that is also the safest ever built but has some reliability problems?

That's the problem: it's not just the numbers, "CR recommended" is an important additional summary qualifier, which is based on flawed methodology that is now resulting in the absurd outcome that CR doesn't recommend the safest, most satisfying car...

You haven't answered the fundamental question I asked:

What is the logic in Consumer Reports recommending less safe, less satisfying cars that might get owners injured or killed with a higher probability, just to save them from ... "panel gaps" and "paint specks"?​

 

[Don TLR]

Here's an update from Tasha talking with yahoo finance about the podcast.

Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance)

2/21/19, 3:01 PM

Highlight: Tesla CEO Elon Musk "sets very aggressive goals and they’ve fallen short of those goals in the past, but they still achieve the impossible," ⁦‪@TashaARK⁩ says, adding: "They might [achieve] them a month or two late but they do them." Full interview: pic.twitter.com/q2PdiPdpE4

 

[MXWing]

Love the advertising banner from CR that I am seeing on TMC.

I think I can confidently say that I have collected enough samples to where Chebyshev himself could declare with high confidence that CR should be dining on *sugar* sandwiches for dinner.

 

[UncaNed]

View attachment 379349 This was the latest survey.

They keep on coming.

I filled out a few for my Model X too. I love that there's so little bad to say about it.

 

[pnungesser]

Bought a single 15 Mar $320 put at the end of the day. Tapped out :Þ

Hopefully we get confirmation on the March convertibles sooner rather than later. Don't want to be in March for long.

They're going to build a M3 convertible in March?!? Where do I sign up?

 

[elasalle]

Or Tesla can allow JD Power and Strategic Vision to access Tesla owners through DMV databases.

Very few will care what happens on Say.

Does DMV DB contain customer satisfaction?

 

[ggr]

I fear it is time that a concerted push to bring up ALL these concerns goes forth to -

• The SEC's Inspector General. In my understanding, the IG is the closest there is to an ombudsman, although his specific charge is, inter alia "to promote integrity, economy, efficiency, and effectiveness in the Commission". In general, OIGs within US governmental agencies are...in theory...independent offices within that agency who have the ability to open doors and drawers and conduct very thorough, severe investigations, and to effect actions. OIG link: SEC.gov | Office of Inspector General
• Friendly congresspersons. Those of you in states with sympathetic Senators or Reps - some kind of letter explaining in brief your beef might be able to induce some action. In theory, this is the purview of your Rep, not your Senator, but I can see a situation in which a Senator might be willing to carry the necessary water.

I wrote to my representative a couple of months ago complaining about the SEC, and got a call back from an aid telling me there was basically nothing he could do.

 

[scaesare]

I trust Tesla more too. But Tesla isn't making a microcar.

Thank goodness.

Weirdmobiles for the most part.

 

[Krugerrand]

I want Tesla to improve and succeed. I think they have the best technology in an EV at this time but are not that great at producing consistent quality products with good customer support. Those who refuse to acknowledge any problems are not helping Tesla improve. Are they better than a year ago? For sure. Do they have more work to do? For sure.

This change from Consumer Reports is a reflection of this. Recently even some of the largest Tesla fans published information on the poor service experiences.

I don’t believe you or your intentions and here’s why: you’ve never hit the helpful, informative, like or love button on any positive post on this forum. Ever. You’ve only ever hit dislike or the new disagree button on positive Tesla/TLSA posts.

All of your like or love button pushes have been on negative Tesla/TLSA posts and almost always on posts by pistets who are known shorts, trolling this forum or themselves never saying anything positive about Tesla/TSLA.

You’ve also never posted anything positive about Tesla/TSLA, only negative toned comments.

 

[UncaNed]

Here is what it shows me:



So after harassing their subscribers they got an additional ~250 people to respond about the Model 3. But it is still a fairly small sample, and people with problems, or a grudge, are most likely to respond.

A small enough sample that well funded corporate level Tesla haters could influence by subscribing, buying Teslas, and reviewing poorly.

 

[Krugerrand]

I have watched Big Three go from 90% market share to 45% market share as Big Three executives and their fans bash CR and insist there are no problems.
I hope Tesla does not follow in that tradition.

No need to hope. Elon has never said a word against CR, has only ever praised them and did it again today. So you can put that worry to bed and not put the idea in people’s heads that it could happen when clearly it won’t as long as CR stays their rigid course.

 

[homer214]

That's the problem: it's not just the numbers, "CR recommended" is an important additional summary qualifier, which is based on flawed methodology that is now resulting in the absurd outcome that CR doesn't recommend the safest, most satisfying car...

You haven't answered the fundamental question I asked:

What is the logic in Consumer Reports recommending less safe, less satisfying cars that might get owners injured or killed with a higher probability, just to save them from ... "panel gaps" and "paint specks"?​

FUD faux news being pushed daily is making Tesla buyers hyper sensitive about quality issues. I’ve experienced no such issues after two months and 2500 miles of winter driving in my 2018 AWD M3.

A high end detailing shop told me my car’s paint and build quality looked excellent before wrapping and applying ceramic coating. Little to no correction was necessary.

 

[Krugerrand]

It is a survey not an interrogation.

And Tesla prevents JD Power from accessing Tesla owner's DMV records in California and other States that require OEM consent.

If Tesla did we would have JD Power and Strategic Vision numbers to verify.

Tesla will likely say they want to protect Tesla owner privacy but more likely they don't want these numbers published until they are consistently good.

Since when has Elon ever shied away from constructive criticism? Answer: Never

He’s always wanted to know what customers think, so no reason to think that’s changed.

So how about we just go with the obvious protection of privacy?

 

[mblakele]

Not directly about TSLA, but Chanos gets a spotlight. You could read this as a TSLA-short fantasy.

The Economist | Shooting the messenger