Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Cringe.

Actually, I'm in it for the long haul as well. That's why I would like a "somewhat" stable CEO (I know, I know, I shoulda known about ELon all along, brah!) Just don't understand the cult worship of the clearly unstable CEO of the company. I've always seen Elon as an amazing mind and innovator, but this past week has made me question a lot.

Scratching my head over how you could have possibly have invested in $TSLA without knowing about Musk, his skills, weaknesses and recent history? I mean even if you aren't an investor, it's plastered all over the MSM on a daily basis anyway and as an investor it's very, very, very basic due diligence.

I had a sell order for $765 to drop off those 100 shares I received this morning after last week's mess (I prefer to stay in cash in the trading account for the moment), so close! Will try again in AH when I can put an order (15 minutes after the bell)

Well, I placed an AH $765 and woke this morning to a $769 quote, but seems there was a technical glitch with the order and it didn't get acknowledged by the market. Normally I'd be pissed, but in this case...

Looks like ya made it!

Fortunately not now I'm thinking to keep hold of them for selling a weekly call. I will rebuy my Friday put so I don't have to worry about that any more (was $10k short in case of assignment).

I'm pretty sure Elon and Grimes won't name the kid "Jonas"

Charley Mark Ross Musk, or if gender-neutral Linette Ross Musk....

 

[FrankSG]

A very informative series of tweets from our own @avoigt about the German auto industry and subsidies that are being considered.

 

[wnorris]

From the Economist today:

"Chancellor Angela Merkel and her senior cabinet ministers, including Olaf Scholz, the finance minister, will confer virtually today with the heads of Germany’s three largest carmakers about how to help the country’s most important industry. Led by Herbert Diess, the boss of Volkswagen, along with his counterparts at Daimler and BMW, the firms are lobbying the government to revive demand with a buyers’ premium of several thousand euros for both petrol-powered and electric vehicles. Mrs Merkel and Mr Scholz are unenthusiastic, especially as VW is still planning to pay shareholders a dividend. Opponents of the carmakers’ idea argue that it merely persuades customers to bring forward car purchases, meaning sales will decline next year. Moreover, it will help the better-off disproportionately, while subsidising a technology in decline. Better to raise subsidies for buyers of electric cars, which would incentivise makers to push on with their electrification—and get more carbon-neutral cars onto Germany’s streets."

Future case studies on the decline of the German auto industry will be fascinating. Merkel has for years tried to get BMW, Mercedes, and VW shift to EVs. It will be hard to find an argument for why they did not see the coming disruption sooner and take the necessary steps in earnest.

Is it really disruption when everyone around you sees what is happening and is trying to get you to shift directions or is it simply arrogance mixed with cowardice toward making tough decisions?

 

[jerry33]

That presumes that money = happiness. It does not. If you’re unhappy without money, you’ll be unhappy with money. You may experience less stress in certain areas of life with the money, but you won’t be happy.

Truth.

True, but if you don't have stress from how you're going to afford to live in two or three years, you have more time to work on the other issues (not saying that you will, but there's a better chance of it).

 

[jerry33]

The two-step might be a better fit for him.

I have noticed that the new X doesn't require the Tesla Two-Step the way the S did.

 

[FrankSG]

From the Economist today:

"Chancellor Angela Merkel and her senior cabinet ministers, including Olaf Scholz, the finance minister, will confer virtually today with the heads of Germany’s three largest carmakers about how to help the country’s most important industry. Led by Herbert Diess, the boss of Volkswagen, along with his counterparts at Daimler and BMW, the firms are lobbying the government to revive demand with a buyers’ premium of several thousand euros for both petrol-powered and electric vehicles. Mrs Merkel and Mr Scholz are unenthusiastic, especially as VW is still planning to pay shareholders a dividend. Opponents of the carmakers’ idea argue that it merely persuades customers to bring forward car purchases, meaning sales will decline next year. Moreover, it will help the better-off disproportionately, while subsidising a technology in decline. Better to raise subsidies for buyers of electric cars, which would incentivise makers to push on with their electrification—and get more carbon-neutral cars onto Germany’s streets."

Future case studies on the decline of the German auto industry will be fascinating. Merkel has for years tried to get BMW, Mercedes, and VW shift to EVs. It will be hard to find an argument for why they did not see the coming disruption sooner and take the necessary steps in earnest.

Is it really disruption when everyone around you sees what is happening and is trying to get you to shift directions or is it simply arrogance mixed with cowardice toward making tough decisions?

I so hope there are some Netflix crews making documentaries about the automotive industry that we can watch in a decade.

Who killed the EV? (2016)
Revenge of the EV (2011)
The ignorance of an industry (2021)
The beginning of the end of the ICE (2025)
Who killed the ICE? (2030)

I also sincerely hope some people are making documentaries about Elon and his life, although I'm not too hopeful about this happening. I suppose Elon succeeding in his goals/ventures is more important, and TV crews would distract him from that. At least we got the biography by Ashley Vance, and the WaitButWhy series.

 

[wnorris]

Elon with his new son (#6)

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[LN1_Casey]

During general premarket open, TSLA is still doing pretty good at +$29. Surprised the shorties, who are now free from the 10% uptick, haven't started their normal shenanigans.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon with his new son (#6)

Elon Musk on Twitter

<Dad+Baby>

Well I can see by that foto that Elon IS NOT sneaking out on the quarantine to get secret haircuts...

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

During general premarket open, TSLA is still doing pretty good at +$29. Surprised the shorties, who are now free from the 10% uptick, haven't started their normal shenanigans.

SP actually seemed to jump a little just BEFORE 7 am... I think sum bigger dogz wanna move it on up

Cheers!

 

[dgodfrey]

A very informative series of tweets from our own @avoigt about the German auto industry and subsidies that are being considered.

View attachment 538852

From the Economist today:

"Chancellor Angela Merkel and her senior cabinet ministers, including Olaf Scholz, the finance minister, will confer virtually today with the heads of Germany’s three largest carmakers about how to help the country’s most important industry. Led by Herbert Diess, the boss of Volkswagen, along with his counterparts at Daimler and BMW, the firms are lobbying the government to revive demand with a buyers’ premium of several thousand euros for both petrol-powered and electric vehicles. Mrs Merkel and Mr Scholz are unenthusiastic, especially as VW is still planning to pay shareholders a dividend. Opponents of the carmakers’ idea argue that it merely persuades customers to bring forward car purchases, meaning sales will decline next year. Moreover, it will help the better-off disproportionately, while subsidising a technology in decline. Better to raise subsidies for buyers of electric cars, which would incentivise makers to push on with their electrification—and get more carbon-neutral cars onto Germany’s streets."

Future case studies on the decline of the German auto industry will be fascinating. Merkel has for years tried to get BMW, Mercedes, and VW shift to EVs. It will be hard to find an argument for why they did not see the coming disruption sooner and take the necessary steps in earnest.

Is it really disruption when everyone around you sees what is happening and is trying to get you to shift directions or is it simply arrogance mixed with cowardice toward making tough decisions?

Simple solution for a net neutral effect on taxpayers is to tax the ICE's to provide the incentive to BEV's. But does Merkel have the cojones?

 

[jeewee3000]

Simple solution for a net neutral effect on taxpayers is to tax the ICE's to provide the incentive to BEV's. But does Merkel have the cojones?

Unfortunately she doesn't. That would mean immediate destruction of Germany's biggest sector. (In contrast to the slow destruction we are witnessing)

 

[LN1_Casey]

SP actually seemed to jump a little just BEFORE 7 am... I think sum bigger dogz wanna move it on up

View attachment 538865

Cheers!

If one of the two max pain charts is correct, 785 is the price to end, so lets see if it branches out of that zone.

Edit; removed incorrect message. My mistake, I was thinking of a different day.

 

[shootformoon]

1. Let me rephrase. His average post quality is as good as yours, if not better.

2. Also, insightful and valuable is very subjective. I really learn new things/ways of thinking from his posts. If you can't, it is your loss.

3. The simple fact he thinks opinion could be worthless is valuable. He does not deny he makes mistakes quite often. It is funny you keep attacking the mistakes that he might've already got over with and ignore his wisdom. Again, your loss.

Did he? Give valuable and insightful info? Really?

He just told us FRIDAY - 1 trading day ago - that the stock was going down to — what was it? $375? in the next several weeks. Something about technicals pointing to that and possibly as low as $180? or some such.

Now here we are on MONDAY and just like that the stock isn’t going to do what he just said it was. Now it’s going to +$1200 and some such in the next several weeks to months.

Maybe it’s just that I don’t know the meaning of valuable or insightful.

 

[jbcarioca]

So where do parts come from? If from Asia, higher cost of transport and time delay in getting to a factory other than West Coast.

From Mexico no change. s we all know there are many variables to consider, with parts sourcing being one.
From my observations, no technical qualifications, I suggest that significant parts suppliers tend to locate conveniently to their customers unless there are compelling reasons to do otherwise. Samsung, for example, fabricates chips for Tesla in Texas already although transportation is insignificant for those. Major fabricated parts are almost always colocated or nearby. A typical example is the Tesla/Panasonic deal. There are countless examples.

Chances are that GF-5 will have crucial supply arrangements well established with attractive economics long before production begins. For GF-4 I'll wager all critical items have already been arranged, just as they were for GF-3. As in GF-3 it is not improbable that production may begin with some parts sent from other Tesla locations, which will be replaced by more convenient sourcing as production builds.

In years past I was involved in several corporate/industrial relocations and new facilities. In each logistical decisions were a continuous struggle against competing interests of price, quality (itself a complex array of factors), labor/skills content as well as speed and reliability of sourcing. Location is never a simple decision.

That said if Texas were to eliminate all restrictions on direct sales and support Texas would be the winner IMHO. Add to that a solid renewable energy base, easy access to highly skilled engineers and workers and convenient geography plus the world's largest pickup market. It is very hard to beat Texas, even with the insane auto dealer political clout.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here is a brand new interview with the creator of the recent series of Youtube videos in anticipation of "Tesla Battery Day":

Tesla battery Q&A with the Limiting Factor | EV Stock Channel (17:26)

Cheers!

 

[mrdoubleb]

Since we are sharing good news on Tesla sales data... This is from Europe, month of March, all cars sold in the 27 EU states.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Since we are sharing good news on Tesla sales data... This is from Europe, month of March, all cars sold in the 27 EU states.

Do we know the number of Model 3's shipped to the EU before the Coronavirus hit? We could extrapolate the information to see how many may be accounted for on Q2's books, if Tesla doesn't ship more out there this quarter.

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon with his new son (#6)

Elon Musk on Twitter

I’m going to caption that photo and hopefully by doing so the people who think he and his company are no longer worth investing in will put their heads back on straight.

Incentive

 

[Artful Dodger]

For GF-4 I'll wager all critical items have already been arranged, just as they were for GF-3.

You'd win that bet:

"BASF to produce cathode materials in Brandenburg. BASF finally made it official: Schwarzheide in Brandenburg will be the new corporate site for the production of cathode material. The German production facility planned is part of a multi-stage investment plan to establish a European value chain for electric vehicles."

Feb 12, 2020​

BASF to produce cathode materials in Brandenburg - electrive.com

Cheers!

P.S. Blackheath is just 138 km South of Greenheath on the A14