Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Slight OT. Amazon has a "shipment zero" project - where they want to be carbon neutral in shipments. They have a goal of 50% zero carb shipments by 2030. This explains their interest in Rivian, perhaps - though I'd expect them to procure the most economical EVs with certain reliability thresholds.

Delivering Shipment Zero, a vision for net zero carbon shipments

General consumer vehicles do not survive against the rigors of shipper duty cycles...
Consider the number of times you open and close your door in a day vs a delivery driver.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Looks like they wanted to make it look more like a Tesla. The Mission E is gorgeous. Why wouldn’t they use that design?

Taycan, concept:
View attachment 379617

Taycan, reality:
View attachment 379618

Why do they always do this? :Þ Are there any other automakers beside Tesla who actually make their production cars as pretty as their "concepts"?

 

[DurandalAI]

Minimizing is not preventing it. More people should be aware that options can be called even if exercising the option doesn't make economical sense (giving up on time value). There are legendary tales on /r/wsb about people failing to realize that possibility and bitten hard in the backside as a result.

I've had puts I sold execute early and out of the money and catch me off guard. It didn't bother me much from a financial perspective since I was coming out ahead, but still it was surprising.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

General consumer vehicles do not survive against the rigors of shipper duty cycles...
Consider the number of times you open and close your door in a day vs a delivery driver.

Of course, no reason they couldn’t use the platform/battery for a shipping truck...

 

[Zaxxon]

CR has also always considered safety a primary concern.

Then they sure as hell shouldn't be recommending gasoline-powered vehicles in 2019.

 

[mongo]

Of course, no reason they couldn’t use the platform/battery for a shipping truck...

Oh definitely!
I was responding to this part:

though I'd expect them to procure the most economical EVs with certain reliability thresholds.

USPS tried consumer vehicles, repair and maintenance was not good...

 

[jhm]

Tesla can't sell more cars than it can make and it can't make them fast enough. Trust me, Elon would be way into brand marketing if that is what was required for the mission. The fact is that the master plan is fundamentally a Marketing plan. Build a super sexy, super fast car.. why? To elicit lust for the brand. Then build an even sexier and not powerful sedan? Pure branding. Elon may not want to admit but he is marketer. Look at SpaceX. Every rocket launch is broadcast, every rocket is white and freshly painted after being burned on reentry. It's all brand marketing whether Elon wants to admit it or not.

The Tesla stretch is 100% because of this brand marketing. They could have made a very cheap, small compact EV that was mission focused but the mission would have failed. The key component of the mission is not selling everyone an EV, it's forcing every competors to make compelling EVs. The mission fails without that cause and effect. It's as clear as day to anyone with two eyes. Tesla's top down assault on margins only happens with super sexy, fast and lust worthy cars. That's brand marketing 101 right there.

Don't confuse marketing and advertising. Strong brands don't have to advertise as much. It's more strategic around specific product launches then the brand as a whole. Tesla's are it's advertising and they more demand than supply. A temporary squeeze if demand into 2 QTRs will but change that and the demand rubber band will snap back with a vengeance in the US as all those new Tesla's dominate the roads.

I agree with everything here but the very first sentence. I do think that Musk's dismissal of brand marketing is because he confused marketing with advertising. Strong delivery on the brand promise (what the consumer expects to get from the company) is the essence of a strong brand. In the case of Tesla, the brand promise revolves around bringing highly innovative, cutting-edge products to market as quickly as possible. Even details like Tesla eschewing the model year convention to bring continuous improvements in production without delay is expressive of this brand. When every detail of company expresses the brand promise, this is much more powerful than anything advertising can accomplish.

The reason why I disagree with your first sentence is that Tesla is under no brand constraint to make every product they sell. Tesla could pursue opportunities license its brand and technology. For example, Tesla could charge a premium for EV packs and drivetrains sold to say some pickup truck maker. The brand could be licensed in such a deal to allow the truck maker to feature that it has Tesla inside. The premium paid for this license is a mechanism for monetizing brand value. The downside to this is whether the partner licensing the Tesla brand will be able to deliver a customer experience consistent with the brand promise or would the brand value be diluted by such a deal. Like with Supercharge has brand value and may be monetized by doing deals that allow others to access it. So I'm not arguing here that Tesla should do these deals to monetize the brand. I'm simply pointing out that there are opportunities to monetize the brand that do not require Tesla to be able to build completely more cars. The stronger the brand is the more rewarding these opportunities can be and the more resistant the brands is to dilution in licensing deals.

 

[EVNow]

Considering the macros - and yesterday's 3% drop, rather dull day today for Tesla. Up 1.3% compared to Nasdaq 0.85%.

 

[KarenRei]

Considering the macros - and yesterday's 3% drop, rather dull day today for Tesla. Up 1.3% compared to Nasdaq 0.85%.

I'll take it - it's "up". Plus, I don't get the feeling that the market has fully decided what it plans to do today yet.

 

[EVNow]

General consumer vehicles do not survive against the rigors of shipper duty cycles...
Consider the number of times you open and close your door in a day vs a delivery driver.

I wasn't saying they would use consumer vehicles - just that they'll buy commercial delivery vans that are the most economical but with some kind of reliability threshold, so not absolute cheapest EVs from China.

 

[EVNow]

I'll take it - it's "up". Plus, I don't get the feeling that the market has fully decided what it plans to do today yet.

Macros look fairly uniformly up to me - with just a few down ticks.

 

[jhm]

I'm not a stylist, but that vehicle is ugly. Am I wrong? What's this preoccupation with grills? Do real men have to wear cod pieces?

Yes

My Cod Piece from the Waterfront

 

[Chop110]

I know it’s too early to say, but there really isn’t that much in the looks department to differentiate the Taycan from the Model S. The Misson E concept was more striking.

 

[mikevbf]

Taycan, concept:
View attachment 379617

Taycan, reality:
View attachment 379618

Why do they always do this? :Þ Are there any other automakers beside Tesla who actually make their production cars as pretty as their "concepts"?

I agree. But even Tesla did this on a smaller scale with their alpha Model S. Look especially at the front end in this video (try 1:20 mark).

It is subtle, but if you look close (while disregarding the old grill) the alpha had a more sexy sloped front. One of the worst concept to production changes was the Volt. Anyone have photos of those?

 

[EVNow]

One of the worst concept to production changes was the Volt. Anyone have photos of those?

I remember the absolute uproar in Lyle's gm-volt site after the change. But the concept was really a brick … IIRC, its aero from the back was better than the aero from the front (or may be it was just a joke) !

 

[DurandalAI]

I agree. But even Tesla did this on a smaller scale with their alpha Model S. Look especially at the front end in this video (try 1:20 mark).

It is subtle, but if you look close (while disregarding the old grill) the alpha had a more sexy sloped front. One of the worst concept to production changes was the Volt. Anyone have photos of those?

I remember drooling over the Volt concept when I worked in the GM towers in 2006-2008. I know I took photos of it, I'd have to dig through my archives. It's faster for me to Google.
Chevy Volt Concept

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I remember drooling over the Volt concept when I worked in the GM towers in 2006-2008. I know I took photos of it, I'd have to dig through my archives. It's faster for me to Google.
Chevy Volt Concept

I... don’t get it. The concept looked like a weird submarine...

 

[ZsoZso]

One of the worst concept to production changes was the Volt. Anyone have photos of those?

Lots of changes, sure, but I am not sure I would prefer the concept vs the production one in this case.
Mission-E vs Trashcan (sp?) is very clear drop of visual appeal, while the Volt concept looked kinda weird...

 

[AZRI11]

Zion's Nike sneaker blows apart on national TV with Obama screaming in the stands creating what could have been a career threatening injury and Nike stock drops about 1%

Tesla has the highest customer satisfaction rate of any car/car maker and has fixed the issues that caused a drop in CR's ratings and the stock drops 3%

<shake's head and heads off to bed>

It's all Tesla's fault Tesla Hires Nike's 'Back to the Future' Sneaker Developer

 

[KarenRei]

I agree. But even Tesla did this on a smaller scale with their alpha Model S. Look especially at the front end in this video (try 1:20 mark).

It is subtle, but if you look close (while disregarding the old grill) the alpha had a more sexy sloped front. One of the worst concept to production changes was the Volt. Anyone have photos of those?

That's the thing - the difference is subtle. Tesla actually designs its concepts the way it actually expects them to look, not some "get people interested" bait and switch for a totally different-looking vehicle. Sometimes some things have to change here and there, but overall, what you get is quite similar to what they unveil. Nothing like what most automakers do, which is present something that looks like it just drove off of a sci-fi set, but then actually deliver yet another ordinary sedan that only mildly resembles the concept.

(And IMHO, I never liked the frontend of the pre-facelift S/X. Always reminded me of a gaping mouth. Honestly, I'm not much of a fan of the facelift S/X grilles either - they look like a moustache - but they're at least better than the pre-facelift ones. I actually like the grille-free 3 frontend the best.)