Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AZRI11]

Texas Governor spoke with Musk Musk, Texas governor talk about potential Tesla move to Lone Star state

 

[StealthP3D]

So Alameda County has pressure from Elon, Mnuchin, Trump, Pelosi (just saw on Twitter, not sure if true) and many others. The state has given the go ahead for manufacturing to resume and they also have a comprehensive plan from Tesla. What exactly are they waiting for?

They know they're incompetent so they want to keep everything locked-down until the public screams to be let out. That way if it's a disaster (because they still haven't procured enough masks, test capability or contact tracing), they will have a scapegoat, ie. "we said we shouldn't end the lockdown yet but the public insisted".

 

[SMAlset]

Many of the automakers with production approval have higher COVID rates than Alameda County. I don't see a problem comparing them. Additionally, they compete against one another.

People are saving money right now because they can't spend it. Just between my wife and I, we are saving around $1900/month solely from not eating and drinking out. We don't want or need to be saving the money but it's literally impossible to eat or dine out (not that we would if we could right now). Your average consumer can add on the savings of cancelled vacations, tuition, clothes, tires, gasoline, oil changes, etc. The list goes on. As long as your income is secure, and many are, this money just builds up or is used to pay off credit cards, etc. In any case, it puts these people in a better position to buy a new car. Sure, a lot of people have reduced income during these times but you would be surprised how many are feeling no economic pain (quite the opposite actually).

People can compare to other states/counties but the reality is they aren't Alameda County and that's kind of all that matters right now. And Gov. Newsom has reiterated a number of times it's up to the local governing body to decide what is appropriate for them. Unless he changes position on that which I think would cause a lot of local jurisdictions a lot of concern (and why I don't think he would), I don't see any official opening until next week...or as he said maybe a few days. It's those local officials that have to feel good about the requirements they set for relaxing openings and I have no doubt with thousands of people coming into Fremont for work they are concerned for the healthcare workers too.

Don't disagree with you on the home front mostly. We have been cooking and eating at home a lot. One of our favorite intown restaurants is now doing takeout orders so we'll be supporting them tonight but yes my husband was saying we are probably saving money on food overall. And we're fortunate that my husband is getting paid for WFH. I see the Model 3 and Model Y as more the middle income family models of choice. So won't be surprised if sales aren't as strong in the coming months. Despite the stimulus check I think that group of potential customers has been hit the hardest and those are the models that Tesla is expecting to do well.


@StealthP3D, I'm not so sure incompetent is appropriate. If for whatever reason Alameda doesn't have sufficient back up of PPE for everyone (and we know shipments of PPE have been erratic, sometimes non-existant or as we are hearing not the quality they need to be), why would the County open up more places yet? I don't know where their inventory is coming from but getting in supplies may not be all in their control.

 

[Artful Dodger]

if the MM or hedge funds are engaging in naked short selling, I assume they have to buy/cover those shares at some point. When they cover they are essentially going long correct?

Thanks for asking. No, in a 'Buy-to-Close' they're returning to neutral. Unless they are using the purchase to unlock funds from the previous short sale, then immediately sell short again.

This is what we call 'walking the price down', and we see it almost daily as the result of high-frequency trading (HFT). Some estimates are that computer algorithms conduct about 90% of all trading on NASDAQ these days.

I mean do they hold on to the shares and probably use it to delta hedge their call options? Does this explain the recent 8K filing from Citadel? What am I missing? This also explains the huge swings in TSLA’s price.

Delta hedging was explained very well recently in a post by @FrankSG so I'll refer the question to him. WRT Citadel, I think their new large position in TSLA is not so much to take a stake in the company, but to support their retail hedge customers, many of whom are high volume short sellers. This'd fall under the "Croupier's Take" part of my 10 Rules:

9. Minimize the Croupier's Take, Don't use Margin​

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Right. So all talk no action. They should put together a committee to talk about what can be done. Oh, wait...

Once again absolutely nobody except Elon wants to stick their neck out.

It’s the difference between being a leader and playing at being a leader.

Yeah, why not? The first Court date for the law suit isn't until October. They gots plenty o'time. /S

 

[Steve m]

I'd like to ask you to re-read your first paragraph and then your last paragraph.

Those of us that found the tweets distasteful did not assume good process was happening. We evaluated the information that was publicly available.

My take on this is that the county shut everything down and was planning on reopening when 6 conditions were met. But, 3 of the conditions were the counties responsibility and all three of those the county has completely failed to do. Testing capabilities and Tracing capabilities. So the county wants more time when they have no visible plan to fix their failures. Having sufficient PPE.

There is no guarantee the county would allow tesla to open on the 18th. There is no way the county is going to ramp testing 7 fold in a week. Let alone get enough contact trace agents deployed.

Alameda County Government is and has been acting in bad faith.

It has to be costing Tesla close to 100 million a week to be shut down. What is a 1k per day fine in comparison to that?

 

[Intl Professor]

So is there consensus that the drop in macros this afternoon was about word that the $3T Democratic-sponsored stimulus bill would be DOA?

(Holy cow, how are we ever going to pay for all this...)

You don't have to when you print your own money and the bulk of it is owned domestically or to heavies like China buying it to finance their exports to us. Chinese have as much interest as we in keeping status quo. Cf banking rule: Borrow a million, the bank owns you, a 100 million, you own the bank. In the very long run it can debase the currency, but not for awhile and who disagrees, just the Reeps whose arguments make little sense. We have to push dollars into hands of the public so they can spend. It's called, trickle up. Or, the billionaires have to do it voluntarily. They don't, that's why they invented the national government. Why at the beginning, did USG assume debt of the states in fighting the revolutionary war?

They've eaten their cake (the scrumptious tax bill), now they must feed the masses some cake. (It's Marie Antionette time. A beer ad?) If the Dems win big time in November, the top wealth will be taxed. Krugman has already said so.

 

[MC3OZ]

Yeah, why not? The first Court date for the law suit isn't until October. They gots plenty o'time. /S

Hmmm.... string out court proceedings until Texas is up and running ...

(Better keep Fremont running until the court decides)

 

[Krugerrand]

I'd like to ask you to re-read your first paragraph and then your last paragraph.

Those of us that found the tweets distasteful did not assume good process was happening. We evaluated the information that was publicly available.

So you jumped to a conclusion before knowing or having all information. You assumed he was ranting for no valid reason but to feed his own inner child.

Have you not been paying attention to who he is? That’s a serious question. Because I’ve watched, listened or read every single interview he’s given. I’ve watched, listened or read every single interview/story that others have done about him.

Elon Musk does not get emotional or rant just because it’s Tuesday. There’s always much that has gone on before to bring him to that emotional point. We don’t always get to know it nor is it necessarily our business to know, but it’s there.

Let me put it a different way. I’ll assume you’re minimally a regular Joe; at least of average intelligence, a modicum of common sense, fairly reasonable, of soundish mind etc...

Tell me, when was the last time you had an outburst, lost your cool, or broke down without there being a valid reason for it?

Everybody is entitled to be human, including expressing themselves in less than ideal ways when everything just gets to be a bit too much. Never mind it’s healthier to let it out than to stuff it down.

When I come across someone new during my day, who gives me attitude or in some other way is unpleasant towards me (and I didn’t deserve it), instead of assuming they’re a nasty person, I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume something not so good is going on in their lives because we’ve all been there before.

For all that Elon Musk has done and continues to do, for all the crap he’s taken and will continue to take, don’t you think he deserves the benefit of the doubt at least until you have ALL the information?

 

[StealthP3D]

Interesting development, surprised we haven’t heard from Elon yet.

There's not much to add since nobody's position has changed. County has already said Tesla cannot produce cars.
Tesla has said they will produce cars. And filed a lawsuit to let a judge decide.
County says Tesla can't produce cars.
This could go back and forth until the Court can hear the case if both sides want to continue re-iterating their positions.
Or, an LEO can step in and arrest people. They don't want to do that for obvious reasons, especially now that there is a lawsuit on the table outlining how the County is not even following their own rules. Imagine if they arrest Elon and put him in jail that is infested with CV (after telling him he couldn't run his factory because it was too dangerous). The County is in a very precarious position if they do anything but posture very gently. And Elon knows it.

The County is so incompetent it would be funny if so many people's livelihoods even their lives weren't on the line.

 

[Big Dog]

There is no guarantee the county would allow tesla to open on the 18th. There is no way the county is going to ramp testing 7 fold in a week. Let alone get enough contact trace agents deployed.

Exactly. I'm guessing that if the County gave Elon a guaranteed open date of May 18, there is no law suit. (There'd be no need the odds of an emergency TRO were slim and nil.) Instead, Elon calls back ~20% of employees this week to ensure partitions for distancing, start to prime the robots and grease the gears so the plant can go a full 100% next Monday.

 

[Papafox]

Truly, incompetent government can reach a point where it boggles the mind. In Hawaii, there were 2 new COVID19 cases today, 1 yesterday. Two of the islands, Kauai and the Big Island, appear to be COVID19-free. Nonetheless, the state just now started loosening up the lockdown on the more populated islands. Six weeks after a ton of residents filed for unemployment in March, only about 30% of the requests had been handled. So these people weren't allowed to work and were receiving no unemployment checks. Lines of cars have reached up to two miles long as people await a box of food from the local food bank.

The numbers of new COVID cases are really low, that's the good part, but some people with small businesses are going to lose their life savings. You truly can take the lockdown too far.

 

[Drumheller]

So you jumped to a conclusion before knowing or having all information. You assumed he was ranting for no valid reason but to feed his own inner child.

Have you not been paying attention to who he is? That’s a serious question. Because I’ve watched, listened or read every single interview he’s given. I’ve watched, listened or read every single interview/story that others have done about him.

Elon Musk does not get emotional or rant just because it’s Tuesday. There’s always much that has gone on before to bring him to that emotional point. We don’t always get to know it nor is it necessarily our business to know, but it’s there.

Let me put it a different way. I’ll assume you’re minimally a regular Joe; at least of average intelligence, a modicum of common sense, fairly reasonable, of soundish mind etc...

Tell me, when was the last time you had an outburst, lost your cool, or broke down without there being a valid reason for it?

Everybody is entitled to be human, including expressing themselves in less than ideal ways when everything just gets to be a bit too much. Never mind it’s healthier to let it out than to stuff it down.

When I come across someone new during my day, who gives me attitude or in some other way is unpleasant towards me (and I didn’t deserve it), instead of assuming they’re a nasty person, I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume something not so good is going on in their lives because we’ve all been there before.

For all that Elon Musk has done and continues to do, for all the crap he’s taken and will continue to take, don’t you think he deserves the benefit of the doubt at least until you have ALL the information?

What conclusion did I jump to? Why are you making so many assumptions about me?

I, too, watch, listen, and read every interview I have found with Elon Musk. I've read Ashlee Vance's book. I've read A Woman Makes a Plan by Maye Musk. I follow Elon Musk on Twitter. I've had friends tell me off for being a fanboy. Etc. Is that enough e-cred for you?

Should I ask you why you're on-tilt? Why you're making it personal with so many posters lately?

Would it surprise you to know I agree with you on most of your posts? But I also believe people should agree / disagree with ideas, not people.

My view is that Musk went off his first-principles with Covid-19. That struck me as atypical for him. Shortly after that, he has a fit on twitter without anyone outside of Tesla and the county having information as to what communication has actually happened.

In my opinion, that was a valid discussion for this thread and it is valid for people to hold multiple views on the situation. I can agree with re-opening Fremont, and the direction of Tesla, and most of what Musk writes, and still disagree with some of what Musk writes. In an investor thread, it seems to me that we should welcome discussion of tweets and events that may affect Tesla.

I spend time online in other areas and the attitude towards Musk and Tesla isn't the same as it is in this bubble. The attitude on Reddit is so negative now that I was silenced multiple times on Monday when I tried to correct misinformation. According to Google, Reddit has 330 million active users.

I believe in the mission of Tesla. That is more important to me than my investment. And outside of this thread, Musk's tweets have increased negativity towards him and Tesla with many people. If the net result is a decrease in future demand (there you go, buy a share please ), then that is germane to discussion in this thread, in my opinion.

I don't like seeing people get personal with another person here when they disagree with their view. That is not a healthy discussion.

 

[FreshPrince]

Exactly. I'm guessing that if the County gave Elon a guaranteed open date of May 18, there is no law suit. (There'd be no need the odds of an emergency TRO were slim and nil.) Instead, Elon calls back ~20% of employees this week to ensure partitions for distancing, start to prime the robots and grease the gears so the plant can go a full 100% next Monday.

The reality is that Alameda intended to prolong the shutdown until next month. May 18th possibility was only mentioned after the lawsuit.

from CNBC:
"Alameda County has a shelter-in-place order effective through May 31, according to the county public health department website. Pan said she expected to know more in another week or two about whether the county could allow manufacturers, including Tesla, to reopen their factories."

 

[StealthP3D]

I see the Model 3 and Model Y as more the middle income family models of choice. So won't be surprised if sales aren't as strong in the coming months. Despite the stimulus check I think that group of potential customers has been hit the hardest and those are the models that Tesla is expecting to do well.

I think your view on what different socio-economic groups choose to drive is rather uninformed. Here's what I know: New cars in general are not a very popular choice until you get to the middle income range. Even then, plenty of people buy used or hang onto their cars as long as possible so they are not buying new cars regularly. Even multi-millionaires do this. When you get to the people with a net worth of 10 million or more, most of them buy new cars but you would be shocked how many buy very normal and regular Hondas, Toyotas, Volvos or maybe Audi's if they are a bit more of a car person. But not necessarily expensive Audi's, just a car that is nice and will get them from A to B without fuss.

Someone who aspires to wealth (but doesn't have any to speak of) might drive a Mercedes or BMW just as likely as someone who is actually wealthy. Probably more so. This kind of person assumes the car they drive is a reflection of how much they are worth (both economically and otherwise, sadly).

My point here is that the Model 3 market (and soon the Model Y market) is bursting at the seams with the same kind of people that buy Honda Accords, Toyotas, Volvos and the like - namely, a lot of people who might be feeling no economic pain during this crisis. And Tesla is such a tiny percentage of the overall new car market, I don't think they will be hurting for buyers, even if total new car sales drop by 40%. It will simply increase Tesla's market share of the overall market.
​

I'm not so sure incompetent is appropriate. If for whatever reason Alameda doesn't have sufficient back up of PPE for everyone (and we know shipments of PPE have been erratic, sometimes non-existant or as we are hearing not the quality they need to be), why would the County open up more places yet? I don't know where their inventory is coming from but getting in supplies may not be all in their control.

No, they are incompetent. Especially when compared to someone like Elon Musk and his top deputies. They can't even ramp a contact tracing program when given months! It's INSANE incompetence and I don't know where you get off making excuses for this kind of incompetence. They are not even fully competent at trying to APPEAR competent!

 

[Krugerrand]

What conclusion did I jump to? Why are you making so many assumptions about me?

I, too, watch, listen, and read every interview I have found with Elon Musk. I've read Ashlee Vance's book. I've read A Woman Makes a Plan by Maye Musk. I follow Elon Musk on Twitter. I've had friends tell me off for being a fanboy. Etc. Is that enough e-cred for you?

Should I ask you why you're on-tilt? Why you're making it personal with so many posters lately?

Would it surprise you to know I agree with you on most of your posts? But I also believe people should agree / disagree with ideas, not people.

My view is that Musk went off his first-principles with Covid-19. That struck me as atypical for him. Shortly after that, he has a fit on twitter without anyone outside of Tesla and the county having information as to what communication has actually happened.

In my opinion, that was a valid discussion for this thread and it is valid for people to hold multiple views on the situation. I can agree with re-opening Fremont, and the direction of Tesla, and most of what Musk writes, and still disagree with some of what Musk writes. In an investor thread, it seems to me that we should welcome discussion of tweets and events that may affect Tesla.

I spend time online in other areas and the attitude towards Musk and Tesla isn't the same as it is in this bubble. The attitude on Reddit is so negative now that I was silenced multiple times on Monday when I tried to correct misinformation. According to Google, Reddit has 330 million active users.

I believe in the mission of Tesla. That is more important to me than my investment. And outside of this thread, Musk's tweets have increased negativity towards him and Tesla with many people. If the net result is a decrease in future demand (there you go, buy a share please ), then that is germane to discussion in this thread, in my opinion.

I don't like seeing people get personal with another person here when they disagree with their view. That is not a healthy discussion.

Okay.

FYI, I’m not on tilt. People continue to act how I have come to expect them to act. Love to criticize others when they should start with themselves. And then get defensive when their own bad behavior is pointed out to them.

 

[Sudre]

They need to hire and train 2000 contact tracers per county or something lol

....., 3 of the conditions were the counties responsibility and all three of those the county has completely failed to do. Testing capabilities and Tracing capabilities......

I think the county is trying to force Elon to provide the testing for them. There are 78K people in Alameda county. If Tesla has to test all 10,000 workers every day then BOOM, the county meets their quota.

"....the document doesn’t include any plans to test workers...." (referring to Tesla's Return to work Playbook)
"Alameda officials have said more testing needs to come online"

Musk Emerges as Loudest Reopen Proponent With Tesla Threats

 

[FreshPrince]

Truly, incompetent government can reach a point where it boggles the mind. In Hawaii, there were 2 new COVID19 cases today, 1 yesterday. Two of the islands, Kauai and the Big Island, appear to be COVID19-free. Nonetheless, the state just now started loosening up the lockdown on the more populated islands. Six weeks after a ton of residents filed for unemployment in March, only about 30% of the requests had been handled. So these people weren't allowed to work and were receiving no unemployment checks. Lines of cars have reached up to two miles long as people await a box of food from the local food bank.

The numbers of new COVID cases are really low, that's the good part, but some people with small businesses are going to lose their life savings. You truly can take the lockdown too far.

I would argue that Hawaii did it right. There was no reason to keep Hawaii open when all hotels and flights are shut down. Now Hawaii can open for tourism while claiming that they have COVID under control.

 

[Papafox]

I would argue that Hawaii did it right. There was no reason to keep Hawaii open when all hotels and flights are shut down. Now Hawaii can open for tourism while claiming that they have COVID under control.

You and I both are happy that COVID is so low in Hawaii, but my point is that when you deny people the right to work you need to muster up the resources to get the unemployment checks mailed. That didn't happen. Numbers are so low on the populous islands that shops can safely open again, but that hasn't happened yet. Further, none of the COVID tests that will be presumably given to tourists before they arrive are 100% effective. COVID will be reintroduced to the islands once tourism opens again this summer. There's a reasonable middle-ground where the economy can start opening without threatening the number too much, and that hasn't happened. What we're seeing instead is people dropping many of their best precautions because the numbers are so low now and businesses still shut down.

 

[StealthP3D]

I would argue that Hawaii did it right. There was no reason to keep Hawaii open when all hotels and flights are shut down. Now Hawaii can open for tourism while claiming that they have COVID under control.

Umm, no. You have it backward. The flights were shut down (not all of them) because they couldn't fill them up. Anyone who wasn't showing obvious symptoms could buy a ticket and fly. Once they arrived they couldn't leave their room.

Whether it was the correct thing to do or not might not be known for a year or so. Even then, people will have different opinions. This post and the one I'm responding to belongs in the CV thread.