Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Steve m]

I think the county is trying to force Elon to provide the testing for them. There are 78K people in Alameda county. If Tesla has to test all 10,000 workers every day then BOOM, the county meets their quota.

"....the document doesn’t include any plans to test workers...." (referring to Tesla's Return to work Playbook)
"Alameda officials have said more testing needs to come online"

Musk Emerges as Loudest Reopen Proponent With Tesla Threats

I have spoken about this earlier. If the county had asked Musk to help, Musk would have gone full speed And helped.

Testing is cheap in comparison to being shut down.

Musk would pull the right people and resources together and got it done.

My guess is Musk has offered and been refused.

 

[mblakele]

I think the county is trying to force Elon to provide the testing for them. There are 78K people in Alameda county. If Tesla has to test all 10,000 workers every day then BOOM, the county meets their quota.

"....the document doesn’t include any plans to test workers...." (referring to Tesla's Return to work Playbook)
"Alameda officials have said more testing needs to come online"

Musk Emerges as Loudest Reopen Proponent With Tesla Threats

Sorry, but you're confusing the city with the county. The city of Alameda is indeed that small. But the county was 1.5M in 2010, and probably close to 1.7M now.

Alameda County, California - Wikipedia

 

[Steve m]

I think the county is trying to force Elon to provide the testing for them. There are 78K people in Alameda county. If Tesla has to test all 10,000 workers every day then BOOM, the county meets their quota.

"....the document doesn’t include any plans to test workers...." (referring to Tesla's Return to work Playbook)
"Alameda officials have said more testing needs to come online"

Musk Emerges as Loudest Reopen Proponent With Tesla Threats

Yes Alameda County Health Department wants to be able to test 200 per 100,000 people per day. As of last week they could test less the 30 per 100,000 people per day. That is where the times 7 comes from. Alameda County also only has about 80 people working on contract tracing for a population of 1.7 million people. One story I read stated there should be about 30 people working contact tracing for every 100,000 people. Using that Alameda County needs 510 people and only has 80.

 

[Curt Renz]

The Verge - hour ago: Tesla reopens Nevada Gigafactory after bringing California car plant back online

MarketWatch - half hour ago: Tesla to fully reopen Nevada 'gigafactory': report

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The Verge - hour ago: Tesla reopens Nevada Gigafactory after bringing California car plant back online

MarketWatch - half hour ago: Tesla to fully reopen Nevada 'gigafactory': report

Tesla shareholders really should band together and file class action lawsuits against some of these sites with their use of "sources" and "workers who wish to remain anonymous".

They literally can just make up whatever they want and use "sources" to substantiate it. Its so frustrating reading any articles nowadays. Journalism has really turned into a dumpster fire

Edit: Please no one respond to that post below mine. Don't give that troll any benefit of even one response.

Edit 2: And that was fast. Ignore Edit 1

 

[skybluecgreen]

Alameda pointing to May 18 to approve Fremont reopening: Alameda County Public Health Department on Twitter

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

View attachment 541223 Alameda pointing to May 18 to approve Fremont reopening: Alameda County Public Health Department on Twitter

So are they just going to ignore that tesla is definitely open during this week and then magically congratulate tesla on starting production on Monday??? Lol

 

[Prunesquallor]

Many of the automakers with production approval have higher COVID rates than Alameda County. I don't see a problem comparing them. Additionally, they compete against one another.



People are saving money right now because they can't spend it. Just between my wife and I, we are saving around $1900/month solely from not eating and drinking out. We don't want or need to be saving the money but it's literally impossible to eat or dine out (not that we would if we could right now). Your average consumer can add on the savings of cancelled vacations, tuition, clothes, tires, gasoline, oil changes, etc. The list goes on. As long as your income is secure, and many are, this money just builds up or is used to pay off credit cards, etc. In any case, it puts these people in a better position to buy a new car. Sure, a lot of people have reduced income during these times but you would be surprised how many are feeling no economic pain (quite the opposite actually).

Unless your "average consumer" is a restaurateur, cook, waiter, bartender, etc. I bet they’re not saving much money. We order curbside every night just to try to help keep those businesses afloat. Many won’t make it.

 

[Buckminster]

So it seems unlikely that we will make it into the S&P500 in Q2. Q3 is however likely which should provide us with the all important short squeeze in November.

In the mean time, TSLA has a good chance of getting a positive P/E ratio in late July. Last 3 qtrs have been:
143m
105m
16m
Typical TTM P/E ratio is measured on GAAP unfortunately otherwise we would already be in positive territory.
So TSLA can lose 263m and still have a positive P/E ratio. It should get a fair bit of interest in the media. Even if high, it will be compared to other similar stocks. NFLX was 300+ not so long ago. A positive P/E ratio is the first (and sometimes only) metric that most armchair investors around the world look at - thousands of new investors will buy a stake. Many will dismiss without it.

It should also limit FUD a little - no one can claim TSLA is unprofitable anymore. It will also signal that S&P500 inclusion is inevitable.

I expect a reasonable SP jump beyond $1k even without battery day.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So it seems unlikely that we will make it into the S&P500 in Q2. Q3 is however likely which should provide us with the all important short squeeze in November.

In the mean time, TSLA has a good chance of getting a positive P/E ratio in late July. Last 3 qtrs have been:
143m
105m
16m
Typical TTM P/E ratio is measured on GAAP unfortunately otherwise we would already be in positive territory.
So TSLA can lose 263m and still have a positive P/E ratio. It should get a fair bit of interest in the media. Even if high, it will be compared to other similar stocks. NFLX was 300+ not so long ago. A positive P/E ratio is the first (and sometimes only) metric that most armchair investors around the world look at - thousands of new investors will buy a stake. Many will dismiss without it.

It should also limit FUD a little - no one can claim TSLA is unprofitable anymore. It will also signal that S&P500 inclusion is inevitable.

I expect a reasonable SP jump beyond $1k even without battery day.

Considering Fremont is back open since Sunday, a profit for Q2 is definitely still possible. If they can get some cars over to Europe, they can still collect on some fca credits. They also have fsd revenue recognition and operating costs will be lower since a majority of their workforce has been on furlough for a month and a half. Also probably going to see rapid model y margin expansion this quarter. I wouldn't be surprised if they use any and all one time items to boost profitability since they know S&P is on the table

 

[Buckminster]

I promise you, this will be my first and last post under this account. you will immediately put up your guard when I tell you that I am "myusername". I was banished from this thread a couple of years ago... but I will promise you, this will be my only post under this account and I have no other accounts. please do not automatically delete or dismiss.

I've been watching this thread and have continued my opinion on Tesla for all these years. But we are now in a very interesting moment that is decisive on our morals. What is the right thing to do right now.

Many businesses will fail. The economy will be damaged. People will die or be physically hamred by a global pandemic. We are all watching the numbers and hope for the best outcome.

And then there's Tesla. An innovative company that can be quantified in two camps:

1) An auto company that to date produces luxury priced vehicles for a small portion of the auto market
2) The financial foundation that will be capable of globally benefiting society for a century

My personal belief is that it is #1 and not #2. The reason why I believe it's not #2 is because I believe that Telsa, the auto company, was destined to fail. It is by definition, a company in a constantly failed state.

Your immediate reaction to this is -- "hang this guy! burn him at the stake!"... but before you do, hear me...

Hypothetically assume Tesla failed tomorrow. San Fran announced a 3 month shutdown along with LA and Elon freaked out and crashed the stock. No available equity raise without extreme dilution, etc... worst case scenario.

Does this mean science stops? Do all of you stop trying to make the world a better place? Does climate change win?

If you think that's the case, then we're all screwed. You've bet WAY too much on one guy and one outcome.

The world becoming a better place and Tesla succeeding are not entwined. It is ok for Tesla to fail. Most businesses eventually fail. It's those that leave an impact that succeeded. There is a clear movement that has started. TSLA has a $145B market cap that is nothing more than a vote for something better.

I get all that. I really do. But what I don't get is... why are we willing to accept what we lose by forcing Tesla to succeed under these conditions?

Forcing employees back to the factory? Cozying up with Trump, Nuchin and these likes? Wall Street beating the Elon drum for "Freedom" against the liberal tyranny?

What are you guys doing? We are in the BEGINNING of a pandemic that harms real people. And there's bantering on about "Freedom" to make sure we TODAY are capable of delivering luxury priced vehicles to a micro segment of the world's population?

This is a very interesting forum. It's filled with brilliant minds. I just don't understand how it can fall so far so fast.

So, I ask of you... put your support in the basic math that you guys can easily understand that clearly shows that taking risks right now for anything... especially something as trivial as getting the next Model X out the door... is just not worth it.

And if you are truly investors in the future of this planet, then you'll understand what I'm saying, even if it means you take a loss.

Hey, I remember you. A blast from the past - I am feeling very sentimental about you - in a good way I think... Anyway, no idea what you are talking about. I have given 1500 ratings here - you got my 4th disagree.

 

[MC3OZ]

So are they just going to ignore that tesla is definitely open during this week and then magically congratulate tesla on starting production on Monday??? Lol

Most probably they officially open on the 18th with all necessary and agreed checks and processes in place.

The legal action is then settled, most probably Tesla makes a small donation to Alameda County Health as a good will gesture rather than kiss-and-make-up everyone social-distances-and-makes-up.

Wanting everyone to be as safe and healthy as possible was never inconsistent with reopening Fremont, we all want both.. everyone will be happy... Elon was right to kick things along..

 

[SMAlset]

I think your view on what different socio-economic groups choose to drive is rather uninformed....

No, they are incompetent. Especially when compared to someone like Elon Musk and his top deputies. They can't even ramp a contact tracing program when given months! It's INSANE incompetence and I don't know where you get off making excuses for this kind of incompetence. They are not even fully competent at trying to APPEAR competent!

I grew up in a middle-class blue collar family and community at a time when steel mills were a good job. In fact my dad worked in a GM plant. I’ve driven Chevys, Plymouths, Ford (Mustang), Hondas and Toyotas. Dad always had a GM car. After college I worked a full-time job and even did some part time. I’ve lived paycheck-to-paycheck sometimes and have been laid off once before in the past. I don’t think I’m uninformed or uneducated about living in the middle class. To shout in your post in reply to mine and ask me where I get off, well have to say I’ve lost respect for you even though I have enjoyed reading some of your views in the past. This really isn’t the thread any longer that I’d come to enjoy reading these past many months as Tesla’s started its increased production and new models and we all shared in seeing our stock investment grow. It does seem to be an expressed feeling among some of us who find it’s become hostile instead. I guess nothing lasts forever but hopefully Tesla continues to thrive.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I have spoken about this earlier. If the county had asked Musk to help, Musk would have gone full speed And helped.

Testing is cheap in comparison to being shut down.

Musk would pull the right people and resources together and got it done.

My guess is Musk has offered and been refused.

It will be interesting to see how the county rationalizes allowing Tesla to ramp up next week if the county has not met their own self-imposed testing/tracing/PPE requirements.

 

[AZRI11]

So are they just going to ignore that tesla is definitely open during this week and then magically congratulate tesla on starting production on Monday??? Lol

Only making model 3. That's basic min

 

[Steve m]

It will be interesting to see how the county rationalizes allowing Tesla to ramp up next week if the county has not met their own self-imposed testing/tracing/PPE requirements.

Yep... It will also be interesting to see how discovery goes in the lawsuit if musk offered and the county declined.

 

[FrankSG]

Thank you for your insight. My purpose in discussing naked shorting is identify if it is being used to drive down the SP with sudden large unexpected dumps, creating a follow-on cascade of panic selling. Look at the 'icicles' in this chart: ( @Papafox explains it well )

View attachment 541174

There are 3 obvious 'icicles' on today's chart (circled above in RED). Let's focus on the icicle at around 1:24 pm: the SP dropped $6.81 over the course of 4 min. This is about as obvious manipulation as it gets.

Then the shortzes just keep banging away until they reverse all TSLA's gains versus the macros for the day (purple line is the QQQ)

If Market Makers are participating in this naked short selling for their own proprietary trading (ie: trying to move the SP in order to save money on Friday's Options payouts, or 'Max Pain), then that is a violation of SEC regulation SHO.

Problem is, the SEC isn't minding the store. They're but a wooden Indian out front of the shop, collecting pennies in a hollow chest.

#SEC

Although I am, like you, suspicious of the naked short selling, especially what took place on Feb 5th, I'm not so sure there's a correlation between the naked shorting and any of these 3 dips.

TSLA has similar dips (and spikes) on a daily basis, and all three of these dips were in a period where macros were also dropping substantially. I think these dips can more likely be attributed to some combination of macros, trading, and delta hedging.

Thanks for asking. No, in a 'Buy-to-Close' they're returning to neutral. Unless they are using the purchase to unlock funds from the previous short sale, then immediately sell short again.

This is what we call 'walking the price down', and we see it almost daily as the result of high-frequency trading (HFT). Some estimates are that computer algorithms conduct about 90% of all trading on NASDAQ these days.



Delta hedging was explained very well recently in a post by @FrankSG so I'll refer the question to him. WRT Citadel, I think their new large position in TSLA is not so much to take a stake in the company, but to support their retail hedge customers, many of whom are high volume short sellers. This'd fall under the "Croupier's Take" part of my 10 Rules:

9. Minimize the Croupier's Take, Don't use Margin​

Cheers!

This blog post has a section with a detailed explanation on short selling:

The Mechanisms That Fueled TSLA's Meteoric Q1'20 Rise

 

[FrankSG]

Elon Musk, Tesla Cybertruck, & Cyberquad ATV To Appear On Jay Leno’s Garage | CleanTechnica

"CNBC just released the teaser for the 5th season of “Jay Leno’s Garage.” The video shows Elon Musk, the Tesla Cybertruck, and the Tesla Cyberquad ATV. Perhaps these are from only one episode that will cover Tesla, but the specific date of this episode is not yet known.

"The next season of Jay Leno’s Garage starts May 20, and the show will air every Wednesday at 10:00 ET onwards."​

Should be more good PR. Elon's chomping at the bit to build Cybertruck.

Cheers!

Closely look at the 1-2 second clip from 0:46.

It looks to me like that is the interior of the Cybertruck, and the vehicle is in some sort of elevator.

CYBERTRUCK INTERIOR:

JAY LENO CLIP 0:46:

The elevator/upward movement piece is very interesting, and instantly made me think it's got something to do with The Boring Company.

Unfortunately enough, I think it's nothing exciting and simply Jay going for a test ride in the Test Tunnel in Hawthorne, because the stairs and scaffolding look very similar to these:

Which come from this video of a test drive through the Hawthorne Test Tunnel:

 

[Papafox]

View attachment 541223 Alameda pointing to May 18 to approve Fremont reopening: Alameda County Public Health Department on Twitter

"If Tesla's Prevention and Control Plan includes these updates, and the public health indicators remain stable or improve, we have agreed that Tesla can begin to augment their Minimum Business Operations this week in preparation for possible reopening as soon as next week."

Although Google has many translators, I could not find a translator for Bureaucrateeze to English. Bear with me, I'm winging this one. Translated, this sentence means:

In order for we county officials to retain the illusion of control (considering that Peckerwood Elon Musk has gone ahead and opened the friggin' Tesla factory without our anointed approval), we're gonna say that what Tesla is doing right now is to merely "augment their Minimum Business Operations this week". If those miserable peckerwoods at Tesla will just cross a few "T"s and dot a few "i"s for us, we're gonna grant Tesla THE POSSIBILITY of reopening the factory next week (provided the new cases and hospitalization numbers don't climb).

 

[Buckminster]

Gali and Vincent are distancing themselves from ThirdRow.