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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Everyone else?

Edit: It seems several sites (Bloomberg, Google, Marketwatch) post ~$190B while others post $162B. I looked up the number of outstanding shares which is at 1.4B. Multiplied by today’ closing price of 117.95 and it is indeed $162B. My apologies.

That's where the discrepancy is coming: number of shares. CNBC is also quoting $192B rather than $162B, but that is with 1.6B shares rather than 1.4B.

Looks like about 0.2B shares have a different status that does not seem uniformly accounted for.
 
That's where the discrepancy is coming: number of shares. CNBC is also quoting $192B rather than $162B, but that is with 1.6B shares rather than 1.4B.

Looks like about 0.2B shares have a different status that does not seem uniformly accounted for.

Yep, as far as I can tell the difference is in where they get their outstanding share count from. Google uses total shares, including treasury stock, while Yahoo, Morningstar, etc. do not include the treasury stock.

In looking at Toyota's financial reports, they don't include the treasury stock count when calculating their per share net income, etc. So I am going to go with Google is wrong and Yahoo is correct.
 
Disinfecting may also be on the radar for robotaxis after this virus crisis. Maybe Tesla can figure out something automatic that works between rides. Ultraviolet light and aerosol disinfectants come to mind, though each solution has pluses and minuses.

Speaking more generically Tesla and SpaceX solve a lot of difficult problems, but they only solve important difficult problems.
So an essential requirement is, working out which problems are important.

If it is an important difficult problem, which will take a long time to solve, it is best to start early, with a low budget, and do a lot of research before any development.

I very much doubt there are any important problems that they have overlooked, and difficulty will not stop them tackling an important problem

If there is a difficult problem that Tesla/SpaceX can't currently solve, I find it hard to imagine a competitor beating them to a solution, Tesla/SpaceX probably started work 5 years before the competition.
 
Speaking more generically Tesla and SpaceX solve a lot of difficult problems, but they only solve important difficult problems.
So an essential requirement is, working out which problems are important.

If it is an important difficult problem, which will take a long time to solve, it is best to start early, with a low budget, and do a lot of research before any development.

I very much doubt there are any important problems that they have overlooked, and difficulty will not stop them tackling an important problem

If there is a difficult problem that Tesla/SpaceX can't currently solve, I find it hard to imagine a competitor beating them to a solution, Tesla/SpaceX probably started work 5 years before the competition.

You don’t perchance have a YouTube channel do you?
 
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  • Informative
Reactions: shootformoon
This is something else IMO. Might be news we don't know or perhaps the MM's moving the Max Pain goalposts or just dicking with call buyers...?
Whale slapping its tail. Look at the Call volume at the 830 SP (22K contracts). Now look at the OI (3k). IMO, a large options trader walked the price up so they could close their 830 Calls at a profit. Price slump after-hrs supports this.

Stock Option Max Pain
 
The cheapest and easiest solution for the safety of robo-taxi passengers would just be to have a bottle of bleach solution in each of the cupholders for customers to take a swig from to protect them. :confused: As an added bonus, all customers could use the same bottle without any sterilizing between rides since bleach is a natural disinfectant! o_O

Advantages:

1) Widely available.
2) Cheap.
3) Has the Presidential Seal of Approval. ;)
All great! But would not it hurt recurring revenue?
 
  • Funny
Reactions: MC3OZ
:) while Ackman was short, he wanted the whole of US closed. ...
Whale slapping its tail. Look at the Call volume at the 830 SP (22K contracts). Now look at the OI (3k). IMO, a large options trader walked the price up so they could close their 830 Calls at a profit. Price slump after-hrs supports this.

Stock Option Max Pain

The volume spike for sure coincided with Bill Ackman’s tweet.

More manipulation going on is what this was. Some guy who probably had inside information that Ackman was working on a video/tweet for Tesla probably bought the weekly calls, expiring tomorrow, to create the action.
9DB4C2A7-B014-4F50-B6E1-801688CBE848.jpeg





46E5B529-0921-4F4F-9D6C-2DFCCB2801AC.jpeg
 
Jay Leno's Garage teases a new video (alt. CNBC Prime | Youtube)

"In this episode, Jay Leno takes a trip to Tesla's headquarters to meet up with Elon Musk. The maverick tech-entrepreneur has a surprise for Jay! Catch the sneak peek and don't miss an all new episode of "Jay Leno's Garage" Wednesday at 10P ET on CNBC." (Ed. note: Wed, May 27, 2020)​

Elon Musk has a surprise for Jay Leno

Cheers!

I'd guess that's probably the ride through the boring company test tunnel near SpaceX HQ.
 
Correct. Would need to hit 873 if held to experation. Paid 43, so 830 + 43 = 873
Note: At close today they had gone up to 59.
But I will sell them wednesday or thursday before the time value gets too low.

So, what does that mean for you? That they’ve gone up to $59? I’d say it means nothing to you, it’s just more expensive for anyone to purchase a contract now vs when you bought it earlier.

Ok, so next basket question. How do you make money by selling before expiration date if the SP isn’t over $873?

Adding: Some others have added color to the basket and now it looks like crap.
 
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Has Electrek always played to TSLAQ, or is this a relatively recent development?

Not going to link to them, but half an hour ago they published an article written by Bradley Berman titled "Tesla employees fear unsafe conditions at factory, call it ‘modern-day sweatshop’"

The worst thing about it is they interviewed employees who have not been into Fremont recently and who are talking about conditions on the line as far back as March.

And they cap it off with:

"Fremont police have made a few brief appearances to verify whether social distancing measures are enforced. However, a spokesperson from the Fremont Police Department said, “We would simply not have the capacity to do [inspections] for every business in Fremont, as we have thousands.”"

So the police came to inspect factory conditions and deemed them in compliance.
 
"Tesla Will Beat Guidance in 2020: Delivery/Production Estimates for Q2 and Full-Year"
Tesla Daily - May 21, 2020
  • Tesla delivery and production forecasts for Q2 and full-year 2020
  • With Giga Shanghai and Model Y ramping up, Tesla is poised to exceed their 2020 guidance and deliver more than 500,000 vehicles on the year
  • Q2 production and deliveries will likely outpace TSLA expectations
  • Full forecast walkthrough and methodology
 
Yahoo Finance says TM market cap is $162B. Google says $191B. I don't know why they are different.

They both say $153B for TSLA.
Bloomberg says $195B, and they make their money out of this sort of thing, so now I don't know who to believe. Anyway, I was quoting Yahoo Finance. ETrade says 164.9B.

Doing a little more thinking, the NYSE symbol "TM" represents ADRs (depository receipts, that is there's an entity here that holds shares in Toyota on its home exchange (presumably Nikkei). This is analogous to TL0.F, which are the Frankfurt exchange shares in TSLA. It could be that some of the numbers are just for the ADRs, while the others are the valuation on the home exchange.
Yahoo Finance shows:
Screen Shot 2020-05-21 at 16.49.19 .png


Exchange rate JPY->USD is .00929 (Oanda.com) so the market cap at Japan close (before US opened today) calculates out to 163B$. So my speculation above was wrong, and Google is definitely wrong.
 
"Tesla Will Beat Guidance in 2020: Delivery/Production Estimates for Q2 and Full-Year"
Tesla Daily - May 21, 2020
  • Tesla delivery and production forecasts for Q2 and full-year 2020
  • With Giga Shanghai and Model Y ramping up, Tesla is poised to exceed their 2020 guidance and deliver more than 500,000 vehicles on the year
  • Q2 production and deliveries will likely outpace TSLA expectations
  • Full forecast walkthrough and methodology
Wouldn’t that be a hoot?
 
  • Funny
Reactions: Artful Dodger
Has Electrek always played to TSLAQ, or is this a relatively recent development?
redFay started pushing 'clickbait' headlines about the same time he bought his used Model S. That car is powered by Hydro and paid for in Clicks. It got even worse when redFay needed to pay for his M3P.

He's gonna get hyper-clickish when it finally dahns on him that 'journalists' aren't eligible for free Roadsters via the Tesla Referral Program. :p
 
So, what does that mean for you? That they’ve gone up to $59? I’d say it means nothing to you, it’s just more expensive for anyone to purchase a contract now vs when you bought it earlier.

Ok, so next basket question. How do you make money by selling before expiration date if the SP isn’t over $873?
'Cuz he can sell them on the market for $59 (more or less) tomorrow morning, and pocket the difference.
 
After-action Report: Thu, May 21, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $814.92
Volume: 12,296,381
Traded: $10,020,531,672.97 ($10.02 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 101.59%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 39.6% (43rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 54.7% (55th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.06% of Short Volume (50th Percentile rank).

Comment: "Tail wags Dog (22K Call options traded @ 830 SP)"

TSLA - SUMMARY TABLE - 2020-05-21.png
 
Bloomberg says $195B, and they make their money out of this sort of thing, so now I don't know who to believe. Anyway, I was quoting Yahoo Finance. ETrade says 164.9B.

Doing a little more thinking, the NYSE symbol "TM" represents ADRs (depository receipts, that is there's an entity here that holds shares in Toyota on its home exchange (presumably Nikkei). This is analogous to TL0.F, which are the Frankfurt exchange shares in TSLA. It could be that some of the numbers are just for the ADRs, while the others are the valuation on the home exchange.
Yahoo Finance shows:
View attachment 543717

Exchange rate JPY->USD is .00929 (Oanda.com) so the market cap at Japan close (before US opened today) calculates out to 163B$. So my speculation above was wrong, and Google is definitely wrong.
I wasn't sure what these "treasury shares" were, and how they played.
Toyota's treasury shares are comprised of shares repurchased in accordance with resolutions adopted at Ordinary General Shareholders' Meetings and fractional shares repurchased at the request of shareholders. The 4,305,583 units of Toyota-owned treasury shares are included in the "Individuals, etc." above.
So these are shares that were issued, then bought back by Toyota itself, and they definitely shouldn't count in the market cap.