Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Driver Dave]

Whack! $990.50

TSLA this morning:

 

[phantasms]

It is soooo tempting to day trade TSLA, but a 75 point spead isnt enouph motivation for me. I could try for a sell at $1,100. But I didnt buy more yesterday, so I suck at that method.

Despite popular TMC believe to the contrary it is absolutely ok, and profitable, to trade AND invest in TSLA.


p.s. I'm deep in the hole today. lol

 

[SOULPEDL]

Despite popular TMC believe to the contrary it is absolutely ok, and profitable, to trade AND invest in TSLA.

So then everyone sees the sawtooth pattern and selling to do it again. It explains the crazy ride.

 

[farzyness]

I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO TODAY

 

[phantasms]

I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO TODAY

Same. I'm about to shut the computer down for the day and go for a trail run. My kid is getting his toy Model S today. That's all that really matters.


p.s. anyone else on Strava? Strava Runner Profile | Gene Leeds

 

[Intl Professor]

I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO TODAY

Watch a movie at home and at least enjoy some popcorn. Let things happen, but then I'm always long. Easier on the organs. As the Buddha says, be in the present.

Edit: If you must be active, or think you are being so, think of doing nothing as an activity. Buddha is really a psychologist. You can't do anything about the past, now, and you cannot guarantee any action now will assure positive results but by doing nothing in the present you hedge against negative results too. If you let fear dominate you may miss out on the positive also, as shorts like Trump favor for destructive purposes. Is Elon fearful or positive about the future? Fearful about the future of humanity due to climate change or vengeful AI, so he takes positive actions now, in the present.

 

[willow_hiller]

Since opricot is no longer accessible, I've been using maximum-pain and trading volatility to look up max pain with vastly different results. Which one is more accurate? Maximum pain is showing only a $500M difference between max pain of $830 for this week and $1,000. Can't be right, right?

Looks like a relatively flat curve for this week:

$830 strike shows a minimum cumulative yield of $2,178,701,000 yield for option buyers. $1,000 strike is only $2,982,410,500. So if market makers could spend less than $800 million on driving the SP down to $830 it would be worth it for them, but otherwise we could see them settle for a $1,000 close.

EDIT: Forgot to multiply by 100 shares per contract, figures above are now updated.

 

[dc_h]

For options buy low on Fridays and sell high on Tuesdays has worked 9 times out of 10 over the past few months going back to Feb.

As for today’s action 984/985 apparently was the 5 day support so good to see it hold. We now wait to see if we get some more buyers on good volume.

Where?

 

[dl003]

Looks like a relatively flat curve for this week:

View attachment 552193
$830 strike shows a minimum cumulative yield of $21,787,010 yield for option buyers. $1,000 strike is only $29,824,105. So if market makers could spend less than $8 million on driving the SP down to $830 it would be worth it for them, but otherwise we could see them settle for a $1,000 close.

REALLY appreciate this. Where did you get this? Aren't we supposed to have much higher spread this week due to a multiple of witching occurring?
EDIT: Saw that $800M now. Makes perfect sense. I still expect a bit more, probably in the billions, but happy to be wrong.

 

[tinm]

Good grief, who's selling? On no news. Stock keeps falling.

 

[Christine69420]

REALLY appreciate this. Where did you get this? Aren't we supposed to have much higher spread this week due to a multiple of witching occurring?

Triple witching week on friday. Dunno where Willow gets the graph - I look here:

Stock Option Max Pain

 

[computerchuck]

Good grief, who's selling? On no news. Stock keeps falling.

I see a buying opportunity if this keeps up.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Good grief, who's selling? On no news. Stock keeps falling.

Macros have taken a pretty big dive from their highs, in a relatively short time frame.

On the plus side, pretty decent volume so far which tells me there's buyers in this upper 900 level. So whenever the selling pressure exhaust itself, we are poised to jump higher. Might be later today or might be later this week

 

[EdKan]

Good grief, who's selling? On no news. Stock keeps falling.

If there's one thing than can be said, it's that nothing is as entertaining as the TSLA SP. Wild swings, unpredictable, and that's just in 2 hours! Who needs Netflix?

 

[Fishy Fish]

Good grief, who's selling? On no news. Stock keeps falling.

macros are all starting to dip as well it looks like...

 

[willow_hiller]

REALLY appreciate this. Where did you get this? Aren't we supposed to have much higher spread this week due to a multiple of witching occurring?

I'm calculating this myself with R. Code below if you can get your own data to plug into it:

list.of.packages <- c("ggplot2","data.table","scales")
new.packages <- list.of.packages[!(list.of.packages %in% installed.packages()[,"Package"])]
if(length(new.packages)) install.packages(new.packages)
lapply(list.of.packages, require, character.only=T)

setwd("~/Data/options")

url = "your_data_source_here"
symbol = "TSLA"

opt.df = read.csv(url)
underlying = opt.df$underlying[[1]]
expiry = opt.df$expiry[1]
data.date = Sys.Date()

opt.df = subset(opt.df,price>0 & open.int>0)
strike.range = unique(opt.df$strike)
strike.range = strike.range[order(strike.range)]
opt.df$opt.id = 1:nrow(opt.df)

opt.df$call.int = opt.df$call*1
opt.df$call.int.inv = (!opt.df$call)*1

strike.opt.grid = expand.grid(opt.id=opt.df$opt.id, state=strike.range)
opt.df.expand = merge(opt.df, strike.opt.grid, by="opt.id")

opt.df.expand = transform(opt.df.expand,
                          return = call.int*pmax(state-strike,0) + call.int.inv*pmax(strike-state,0)
)

opt.df.expand$pain = opt.df.expand$open.int * opt.df.expand$return * 100

pain.graph = data.table(opt.df.expand)[,.(pain=sum(pain)),by=.(call,state)]
pain.table = data.table(opt.df.expand)[,.(pain=sum(pain)),by=.(state)]

max.pain = pain.table$state[which.min(pain.table$pain)]

message("Maximum pain: ", max.pain)

pain.graph$call[which(pain.graph$call==F)] = "Put"
pain.graph$call[which(pain.graph$call==T)] = "Call"

p=ggplot(pain.graph, aes(group=call, fill=call, x=state, y=pain)) +
  geom_bar(stat="identity", position="stack") +
  geom_vline(xintercept = max.pain, color="red", linetype="dashed") +
  geom_vline(xintercept = underlying, color="blue", linetype="dashed") +
  scale_y_continuous(label=dollar) +
  annotate(
    "text",
    x=max(pain.graph$state),
    hjust=1,
    y=max(pain.graph$pain)*0.8,
    label=paste0(
      "Underlying (blue): ", underlying,
      "\nData date: ", data.date,
      "\nExpiry: ", expiry,
      "\nMax pain (red): ", max.pain
    )
  ) +
  theme_classic() +
  theme(legend.title=element_blank()) +
  labs(x="", y="")

p

ggsave(
  paste0("~/Data/charts/", symbol,".",data.date,".",expiry,".png"),
  p,
  height=4,
  width=8
)

opt.df$call.str = ""
opt.df$call.str[which(opt.df$call==T)] = "Calls"
opt.df$call.str[which(opt.df$call==F)] = "Puts"
p2 = ggplot(opt.df, aes(x=strike,y=open.int,group=call.str,color=call.str)) +
  geom_line() +
  theme_bw() +
  theme(legend.title=element_blank()) +
  labs(x="Strike", y="Open interest")
p2

ggsave(
  paste0("~/Data/charts/", symbol,".",data.date,".",expiry,"-2.png"),
  p2,
  height=4,
  width=8
)

 

[Fishy Fish]

Macros have taken a pretty big dive from their highs, in a relatively short time frame.

On the plus side, pretty decent volume so far which tells me there's buyers in this upper 900 level. So whenever the selling pressure exhaust itself, we are poised to jump higher. Might be later today or might be later this week

Powell from the fed is currently testifying. I think there's something else happening today around 6pm as well?

Dow nearly erases all of its opening gains amid Powell's Senate testimony

 

[elasalle]

Powell says the Fed doesn't want to 'run through the bond market like an elephant'

 

[Tslynk67]

Looks like a relatively flat curve for this week:

View attachment 552194

$830 strike shows a minimum cumulative yield of $2,178,701,000 yield for option buyers. $1,000 strike is only $2,982,410,500. So if market makers could spend less than $800 million on driving the SP down to $830 it would be worth it for them, but otherwise we could see them settle for a $1,000 close.

EDIT: Forgot to multiply by 100 shares per contract, figures above are now updated.

Don't think they'll try and push it down to $830, would cost a lot and bring a load of puts into play?

But they want it below $1000, that's for sure...

 

[vikings123]

Where?

Not sure I understand your question but yes that support was broken and we pushed off of 965 which was the next key support level.