Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[heltok]

Global Top 20 May 2020

EV Sales: Global Top 20 May 2020


Based on EV sales blog:
April Tesla total: 14,793
April + May Tesla total: 39,400


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With May having been a really bad month for Tesla given they that have less inventory and a factory shutdown than the competition. Assume June will be even better for Tesla and soon Y will enter the chart.

Would be nice to see the same chart but with KWh instead of cars.

 

[LN1_Casey]

337 new Tesla Model S's, 798 model 3's, and 437 model X

There are 365 mode S, 642 model 3, and 544 model X.

421 model S, 640 model 3, 644 model X.

This is a increase of Model S by 56, and Model X by 100, but a whopping decrease of 2 for the Model 3.

Overall, since the 25th, there is a +84 Model S, +207 Model X, and -158 Model 3. Since the Model 3 are still probably the #1 produced and sold of the four models (with Y ramping and every model sold), the fact that it's continually decreasing is great news.

Edit: I'll probably post this tomorrow, which is technically the last day in California of June, but 1 July for me in Greece. It'll give a rough idea of how much was sold in the last week or so.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I bought one of the new Tesla hats earlier today. It was "shipped" within a couple hours.

It says something about Elon's marketing genius (or perhaps humanity) that in the middle of a global pandemic, record unemployment and civil unrest that he can get people to literally pass the hat around to support a global techno-industrial juggernaut with billions of $ in the bank.

I get why, but it's still amazing.

 

[Tslynk67]

OK, I put some thought into this... It's 69,000 deliveries. Revenue will come from everywhere, maybe new places for a surprise, so my estimate could be a bit high so to speak. Nonetheless, it's in the bag.

I think you're slightly short with your forecast, I'm going with 69,420...

 

[chrsk]

1010$ in premarket

 

[MABMAB]

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf

 

[cyclingthealps]

1010$ in premarket

10 years anniversary

 

[LST]

Did my part as well FSD for CHF 6‘300.-
you are welcome

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla?lang=en

If this is in fact Factchecking (I believe so), he must be delighted with the attention he got on TMC these last few days: he gained 300 followers

 

[mongo]

Berkshire had a market cap of $170 billion when joining the S&P 500 in 2010. Making roughly 1% weight in the index. Source: Will Berkshire Pop Friday Upon Joining S&P 500?

TSLA weight would be somewhere around 0.6% if joining today. Source: https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1277324996319338497

Only went up 1%ish on inclusion day, but look back to the decision point: Berkshire Hathaway to join S&P 500, shares soar

Standard & Poor’s said it will add Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc to its flagship S&P 500 stock index, as the company prepares to acquire railroad operator Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.

Berkshire’s Class B shares rose $5.40, or 7.9 percent, to $73.40 following the announcement after hours. Its Class A shares, which were not split, closed down $1,449 at $101,751 on Tuesday. They rose 8.1 percent to $110,000 after hours.

For those curious, it hadn't been added previously due to the high share price. A 50 for 1 split fixed that (part of railroad acquisition). https://money.cnn.com/2010/02/12/news/companies/Berkshire_Hathaway_Buffett/

 

[Dreadnought]

New Tesla iOS app just hit tonight. 3.10.7

Sadly, I still can't upgrade my AWD to P. Maybe tomorrow. lol

Usually these updates are for a reason. Maybe Green will find some hints soon. Hopefully we can give more to the cause tomorrow.

I bought mine through Tesla.com.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

SP500 inclusion?

do research. Here ya go:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/40...ing-what-happens-when-stock-is-added-to-index
At least read the abstract: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr484.pdf
2.7-5.4% affect? Is that worth it? https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2469/faj.v64.n5.7?journalCode=ufaj20
Cumulative excess returns zero? https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2469/faj.v43.n1.58?src=recsys

I'd love a big rush up but history does not seem to support.
Any contrary evidence?
I recall Redhat being a nothingburger. I must have been inpatient back then... First is a one year chart. July 17 2009. [WERE YOU EVEN TRADING THEN?]Small green blip up volume shows gap up about 10%. Few days later giant other volume. Price hung out for a bit, then retreated back filling the gap maybe a month later 8/19. Finished the year up about 50% from pre addition price. I'd take that in TSLA

Play around at this link to see what happened. RHT - Red Hat Stock Interactive Chart - Barchart.com

What else do you recall being added?



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It's a good thing to see you row against the tide. Many of us tend to get a bit overenthusiastic sometimes (or often). People need to be careful to not bet everything (in options) on a rally or squeeze after S&P inclusion happens.

There may be a rally in anticipation, but we could also see a sell the news reaction. And for the hodl'ers: a rally could be short lived and only be profitable to those who sell. Twitter is a good example. It is often brought up as proof that S&P inclusion leads to a big rally. What is being overlooked is that pretty soon afterwards the stock dropped back to where it came from.

A much higher stock price needs support from fundamentals, or it will crash right back. That is one thing that Tesla has going for it: good and improving fundamentals. So who knows...

 

[heltok]

Did my part as well FSD for CHF 6‘300.-
you are welcome

Thanks for inspiring me! I did my part also:

66000SEK added to Q2 results.


You are all welcome! Let’s secure this awesome company’s Q2 result and future success!

 

[LST]

OT: You are all an awesome crowd ! Go longs, go Tesla, go TMC !!!

 

[Todd Burch]

Sorry guys. I tried adding FSD to my AP1 car but no luck .

 

[elasalle]

Bought cap. FSD not approved by wifey (yet) ... One time where giving facts about living within your means, financially savvy, only if you need it etc comes back to bite you

 

[jerry33]

Already have all the upgrades. So, I did my part.

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I didn't think the App ever had anything but "You have all of the available upgrades".

 

[Singuy]

Two sell side updates.

Barclays, with their extremely bullish $300 price target decides to title their report "Shelter in cave order for bears extended". Oh, and they're forecasting $4.20 million net profit for the cherry on top. Production estimate is 91k due to a quick Fremont ramp.

Deliveries are as follows:

• S/X: 10.8k
• 3/Y: 74.1k
  • 29.7k Model 3s from China
  • 10.5k Model Ys
• Total: 84.9k

To get to their $4.20mm profit, they are assuming $300mm in regulatory credits and a 17% gross margin excluding credits.


JMP's forecast is much more conservative, following the trend of the more bullish analysts having more bearish estimates and vice versa.

Deliveries are as follows:

• S/X: 10.8k
  
• 3/Y: 63.0k
  • ~25k Model 3s from China
    
  • Only 3k Model Ys
• Total: 73.8k

Is this a joke or is Barclays for real here? 4.20m in profit? Someone should be fired for making troll projections. I would refuse to take their questions during all earning calls until they get their *sugar* together.

 

[plug&play]

Did my part.

I’ve been on the fence on purchasing acceleration boost. It’s time.

Making history and saving the planet has never been more fun.

Long TSLA.

 

[elasalle]

@Fact Checking does a great job explaining it on Twitter.

Many of the names added to the S&P 500 didn't get a big bump in SP because they were already members of the S&P 400. Their shares were already owned by the index funds and just had to be transferred to the S&P 500 index. Those companies were profitable, but they didn't have the large market cap to qualify for the S&P 500. Tesla is coming from the other direction. It more than qualifies on the market cap, but hasn't met the TTM and most recent quarter GAAP+ criteria.

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1277321864101138433?s=20

Edit: I did my part too, and ordered replacement wiper blades and a CyberTruck t-shirt this afternoon.

If we assume Market (& Makers) are forward looking, we should consider that part of the run up to $1K was folks already positioning for S&P inclusion.