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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If we assume Market (& Makers) are forward looking, we should consider that part of the run up to $1K was folks already positioning for S&P inclusion.
No one is expecting a profit Q2, not even bulls with a shutdown. No one was expecting a profit Q1 either especially Covid botched the very important end of Q push, but stock was already 800 prior to the report. S&P inclusion was and still is uncertain. The run up to 1k was a combination of surprise profit, Semi production early, competition scaling back EV projects, and overall how Covid resistant Tesla has been. So basically no major losses. Being profitable to the point of S&P inclusion in this climate is actually pretty insane.
 
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Normally I'd say S&P inclusion was priced into TSLA already, but these guys are going to have to buy shares. What we've seen that's semi-unique to Tesla is NOBODY sells, even on massive spikes.

At the end of the day, these shares have to come from somewhere. Plus there's the huge short position! I see a monumental spike in SP if "inclusion secured" in 2Q, then a quick drift back down to $1000-1150. Gonna be f'ing wild.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: elasalle
08:00 a.m. Whistle: Tue, 30 Jun 2020
  • TSLA share price: $1008.25 -1.0964 -0.11%
  • NASDAQ Pre-market Vol: 83,937
TSLA.2020-06-30.08-00.png


Comment: "Final Trading Session for 2020 Q2"

Cheers![/QUOTE]
 
Sales data from Europe looks like a strong finish so far.

In the first two months of Q2, 5,648 Teslas were delivered in Europe. For the whole quarter, Troy estimated recently 10,759 units (Hence, he expects June volume to be around 90% of the combined volume of April and May).

Data from Netherlands, Spain and Norway shows that June deliveries so far are around 138% of the combined volume of April and May:
Unbenannt.png
 
Global Top 20 May 2020

EV Sales: Global Top 20 May 2020


Based on EV sales blog:
April Tesla total: 14,793
April + May Tesla total: 39,400


View attachment 558508

View attachment 558509

So far I haven't really paid much attention to Q2 deliveries, because I thought it'd be too hard to estimate this quarter because of everything that's been going on.

However, this data that @Todesbuckler shared made me want to look into it, and see if I couldn't use this and other data to make a prediction.

It's too late here in Asia to go into detail now, but holy cow, I actually think 100k+ deliveries is in the cards :eek: I'm pretty stunned by this myself, but it actually seems very possible.

I'll try to write up a quick blog post tomorrow with all the data, calculations, and assumptions.