Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

What value would two bloated companies have to Tesla (especially with direct/ on-line sales and their own supply chain)?
Tesla could hire the installers directly and avoid the technical and fiscal debt.

Potentially, I'm not exactly sure how their installers relate to the sales portion on the company.

Tesla could certainly use the service an communications expertise. Keep that plus the installers. Fire all the salespeople. Scrap their business model.

As I said, I'm interested in a scrapheap bargain only!

 

[charlesgres]

Thats my understanding as well, OTM's will have better leverage (but more RISK). Here is simple formula I picked up googling a while back. and sampled prices with. The other greeks are not considered here, but they too will impact the Option Price.

Leverage = (Delta*SP – OP)/OP ... where SP is the Stock Price, and OP is the Option Price.

Yup, that's the formula..

As to risk, I think it does not depend on the strike price but on the expiry date: the sooner the more leverage, the further the less risk.. Is a question of what you're comfortable with.. For me that would be around 6 months to one year out..

But I suppose that's also because with what Tesla has up its sleeve, six months is a long time and the only way the SP can be then is higher..

 

[Artful Dodger]

08:00 a.m. Whistle: Tue, 07 Jul 2020

• NASDAQ-100 Futures: -24.62 -0.23% 09:00:15 ET
• TSLA share price: $1401.86 +30.28 +2.21%
• NASDAQ Pre-market Volume: 406,163 @ 08:00 ET

Comment: "Pre-Market Volume is even higher than Mon, Jul 06, 2020"

Cheers!

 

[dc_h]

With these stock prices and this demand for TSLA I think Tesla should do a capital raise ($10 billion?) and use that capital to build several gigafactories simultaneously and develop even more (cheaper) models. That will have the ICE manufacturers shivering.

I'm not disagreeing, but I think they may be expanding as rapidly as possible already. There is human capital that takes time to build and they did not hit stride with the manufacturing teams until after the Model 3 was built. They are making great progress, but I think 50-75% growth is about as they can grow without wasting a lot of capital.
I also think they'll be generating adequate cash flow moving forward to avoid any more cap raises. Elon wants to maintain as much control as possible and selling more stocks dilutes his ownership (as well as ours). Recalling how the high stock price of Cisco in the 1990's killed innovations (it became cheaper to buy innovation), I'd prefer Tesla keep making small acquisitions of high value add subs (Grohmann & Maxwell) and focus on maintaining growth from internal cash generation. I think that will lead to the best and most efficient use of capital.

 

[Twooz]

08:00 a.m. Whistle[/B][/U]: Tue, 07 Jul 2020

• NASDAQ-100 Futures: -24.62 -0.23% 09:00:15 ET
• TSLA share price: $1401.86 +30.28 +2.21%
• NASDAQ Pre-market Volume: 406,163 @ 08:00 ET

View attachment 561557

Comment: "Pre-Market Volume is even higher than Mon, Jul 06, 2020"

Cheers!

Hopefully we stay green today!

 

[ggies07]

ok guys, I've wanted to do this to our garage since I saw others do it back in 2013. I wanted a red wall, but the wifey said only black.....We've been checking off a lot of house projects that we had on our list during our time at home due to COVID-19 and this is the last one for now. After 10 years, the walls had become dirty and worn down. Took me two and half days and two thumb blisters getting the logo on the wall, but it was well worth it!

I put this in this thread because Tesla truly has been an investment - money, time, research, discussion with others.....etc.

 

[LJS22]

08:00 a.m. Whistle: Tue, 07 Jul 2020

• NASDAQ-100 Futures: -24.62 -0.23% 09:00:15 ET
• TSLA share price: $1401.86 +30.28 +2.21%
• NASDAQ Pre-market Volume: 406,163 @ 08:00 ET

View attachment 561557

Comment: "Pre-Market Volume is even higher than Mon, Jul 06, 2020"

Cheers!

I think we’ve seen a couple attempts already to get the price lower this morning to possibly scare some into profit taking early. It appears every dip is being bought up. A couple early drops to 1380’s seemed odd as futures weren’t moving much. What are your thoughts? Always appreciate your post

 

[hoang51]

Do you have another stop loss set now?

I haven't set one up yet, still mulling on it.

 

[Todd Burch]

I think we’ve seen a couple attempts already to get the price lower this morning to possibly scare some into profit taking early. It appears every dip is being bought up. A couple early drops to 1380’s seemed odd as futures weren’t moving much. What are your thoughts? Always appreciate your post

I was thinking the same thing.

Seemed to me to be a fake pre-market dip do get retail investors to panic and sell so MMs could get in at a better price. The attempt hasn't been strong enough. As many are saying, we could have a few sustained days of decent margin calls.

 

[Big Time]

I feel like it’s the rodeo and I just got on top of the bull. Just a min till they open the gate. Take one last swig of whisky and straighten my hat. Drop down on to the jittery, glassey eyed dinosaur. Tighten the reins. Giddy up!
Hiyah!!!!!

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm happy to pay my fair share of taxes, but if one strategy of withdrawing my funds results in many 10's (or 100's?!) of thousands of dollars more taxes paid over my lifetime than a different strategy, then I want to make sure I'm pursuing the best strategy.

The best way to minimize taxes and maximize returns is to buy companies that will have decades of good growth and hold them tight (don't trade in/out of them). This defers taxes as long as possible and allows your gains to compound tax free. That is a big deal and the key to building wealth.

My observation is those who are overly concerned with minimizing the amount of taxes they pay tend to make a lot less money. If you're killing it, eventually paying the taxes is no big deal. The main consideration is to let your gains compound for many years before the taxes are paid.

 

[lafrisbee]

Can't edit my previous reply, to add insult to the injury, you can't even do it on calls. They even acknowledged that volatility in options is such that it would make sense to set sell orders way out of the current value, but still, nope, can't do it. Ugh.

At first thought I couldn't envision why not. And then I realized humans were involved. This "rule" has to have its origins in facts:
The Fact is so many chuckleheads thought they were being wise/funny by setting a selling point way out and then they forgot about it. When the order executed guess who they called to cry about it, "You should have known not to let the stock be sold. It was HUUUGE! What do I pay YOU for? YOU should protect me from myself!"
And then they did: No more far-distant auto sells.
(They would rather listen to you complain about something you want to do, than listen to a few people cry and bad-mouth them about how useless they were when "TSLA was going to MARS and THIS Financial group auto-sold me right in the beginning of it.")

 

[Nocturnal]

Well, I guess people pulling their money out of other places are going to stick it in TSLA.

I was thinking the same thing.

Seemed to me to be a fake pre-market dip do get retail investors to panic and sell so MMs could get in at a better price. The attempt hasn't been strong enough. As many are saying, we could have a few sustained days of decent margin calls.

What kind of sucker takes profits at $1400 for a $10k stock?

 

[StealthP3D]

I feel like it’s the rodeo and I just got on top of the bull. Just a min till they open the gate. Take one last swig of whisky and straighten my hat. Drop down on to the jittery, glassey eyed dinosaur. Tighten the reins. Giddy up!
Hiyah!!!!!

The question is, do you have what it takes to stay on, no matter how hard the bull bucks?

 

[Todd Burch]

The best way to minimize taxes and maximize returns is to buy companies that will have decades of good growth and hold them tight (don't trade in/out of them). This defers taxes as long as possible and allows your gains to compound tax free. That is a big deal and the key to building wealth.

My observation is those who are overly concerned with minimizing the amount of taxes they pay tend to make a lot less money. If you're killing it, eventually paying the taxes is no big deal. The main consideration is to let your gains compound for many years before the taxes are paid.

Yes, but as I've discovered you can take "don't trade in/out" too far. I'd modify what you suggested by saying don't trade in and out for small changes, but for significant price changes (like we saw in Q12019 and COVID) you're better to get out and buy back in later than to hold through it all.

Problem is, you never know how deep any drop is going to be so in the end you have to go by your gut.

 

[engle]

Over the years I've converted almost all of our TSLA into our Roth IRAs and paid the taxes at much lower cap gains. Unfortunately, I am now over 59.5 years old so any withdrawals will be tax-free. The only benefit I see in being "senior" is qualifying for "senior hours" at Whole Foods and Costco!

Maybe I'll put in a limit buy order for 1 share at $1,420.69 and see if it executes today...

CNBC just announced Adam Jonas' latest note this morning puts his bull case at $2,050 still "underweight" LMFAO. Andrew Ross Sorkin is rattling off all the mega-caps that TSLA is now worth more than. It reminds him of "the thoughts we had during the earlier part of the AMZN lifespan".

Is it too late for my $1,420.69 share on the way up today?

Let's find out!

The best way to minimize taxes and maximize returns is to buy companies that will have decades of good growth and hold them tight (don't trade in/out of them). This defers taxes as long as possible and allows your gains to compound tax free. That is a big deal and the key to building wealth.

My observation is those who are overly concerned with minimizing the amount of taxes they pay tend to make a lot less money. If you're killing it, eventually paying the taxes is no big deal. The main consideration is to let your gains compound for many years before the taxes are paid.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think we’ve seen a couple attempts already to get the price lower this morning to possibly scare some into profit taking early. It appears every dip is being bought up. A couple early drops to 1380’s seemed odd as futures weren’t moving much. What are your thoughts? Always appreciate your post

I think:

• I bought tickets to this show years ago
• I've been camped out in line for 24 mths
• I can hear the orchestra warming up
• I ain't leavin' early b4 no show!

So the only question in my mind today at this 5 am morning time here in CA is - will we see a repeat of Black Tuesday Feb 5. This price action feels so similar to that week. Want to be prepared for any such shenanigans that MMs May try today.

Oh the bears and MMs are ready, they know just what to do. Here's the secret plan:

Cheers!

 

[Big Time]

The question is, do you have what it takes to stay on, no matter how hard the bull bucks?

Well I’ve survived this long, couple more seconds can’t hurt!!! (Said the dead gorded guy)

 

[The Accountant]

If I am doing my math correct if the stock price were to hold at the current closing price Elon would vest the second tranche of his incentive plan on 7/16(9 days), and the third tranche on 8/19(43 days). (The three necessary operational targets have already been hit, so it is just the 6-month average holding him back.)

Is that anywhere near close to correct?

@The Accountant How much will that impact the Q2 financials? (In terms of how much they have to recognize for his pending incentive?) Is that going to be enough to screw the profit and S&P 500 inclusion for Q2?

Q2 will have a additional $22m charge for Elon's CEO award (this was mentioned in the Q1 filing). I believe we won't see further charges in Q2. Even with this $22m, Q2 should be profitable.

Just as background for those interested:
- The total impact of the CEO Award will never be more than 2,284m
- Over a period of several years, Telsa expenses the portion of the CEO award that they deem "probable".
- They expensed $175m in 2018, 296m in 2019 and $66m in Q1 2020.
- They expect to expense another $461m over the next 2.6 years
- They do not expect to expense $1,286m as that part of the award is currenly considered "not probable",
- Some of the "not probable" amount of $1,286m may become probable and they will need to begin expensing this as well.

We will learn more from the Q2 filing but for now I don't see an impact to Q2.

 

[Nocturnal]

News - "People who don't get it, still don't get it. Film at 11."

Mystified Tesla bears on Wall Street admit there appears to be nothing that can stop the stock right now