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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Last week he tweeted about an Autopilot rewrite being 2-4 months away...
Elon Musk talks Tesla Autopilot rewrite, says 'a lot of new functionality in 2-4 months' - Electrek

"Now Musk commented on Twitter last night with an update about the Autopilot rewrite:

Going well. Team is kicking ass and it’s an honor to work with them. Pretty much everything had to be rewritten, including our labeling software, so that it’s fundamentally ‘3D’ at every step from training through inference.

In another tweet, the CEO said that he believes the update is two to four months away:

A lot of functionality will happen all at once when we transition to the new software stack. Most likely, it will be releasable in 2 to 4 months. Then it’s a question of what functionality is proven safe enough to enable for owners."

Pretty surprised that it wasn't 3D before. Hopefully this will get rid of the problems with overhead road signs and static objects.
 
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Elon did have an epiphany during the model 3 ramp - some tasks were more efficiently handled by humans, such as connecting hoses (not dissimilar to plugging a car).

One human could manage a very large supercharger station.
I was thinking about this from a previous post I read today...
Ya know the vehicles have a summon mode? Soooooo
If an attendant was needed to plug and unplug the super charger it wouldn't be that hard a software fix to have the car then "Summon itself" to a designated "regular" parking spot so the super charger could be open for the next car. And the next tesla could "summon" itself to be charged. This would reduce waiting.
 
Its been sad to see neroden making one mistake after the other in evaluating Tesla by weighting service issues that happened way too high. Later I have seen some very bearish posts from him in the comment section at CT in my articles and he looked almost like a troll. Sad development.

I do not know whether he did ever reinvest, understanding he made a mistake that is today obvious for everybody.

The same happened with Curt Renz who sold everything because of how and what Elon did tweet. I never understood how that can be a reason to invest or not in a company (Sorry, Curt). Elon acknowledges he sometimes tweets nonsense and just for fun and regrets it later.

Luckily Curt went in again but the challenge some have is to extrapolate an issue they see if justified or not, to the entire investment thesis. Its just one element of many and not anything that brings a company with superior technology down.

I can only add that Neroden is on the autism spectrum (he said so himself) - meaning that he can be hyperfocused on some details, sometimes losing the big picture. For him, service was the single point of failure. Moreover, he has a cronical health condition that makes him *extremely* risk averse in terms of investments, because he lives off capital gains and dividends, which also need to buy his cures.
I sure hope he did entry again but I don't think so. Hope he's well anyway, I for one miss his wisdom.
 
1) S&P does NOT have to accept TSLA into the index; there is NO must add rule, people get to decide, people are notorious for being vindictive, selfish, stupid etc...

There is also the criteria:

The U.S. portion of fixed assets and revenues constitutes a plurality of the total, but need not exceed 50%. When these factors are in conflict, fixed assets determine plurality. Revenue determines plurality when there is incomplete asset information. Geographic information for revenue and fixed asset allocations are determined by the company as reported in its annual filings.

I think that Tesla meet that criteria at present, but it is pretty close on revenue.
 
Tesla hasn't installed any charges that would be able to automatically connect the charging plug with the car port. Neither has there been any mention about such chargers during the last couple of years. Isn't this strange if FSD really was only a few years away? Perhaps someone could ask about this at the shareholder meeting.
Better yet (or easier to do) would be a way to at least auto-UNPLUG when finished charging and FSD drive away to a parking place to at least free up the finished charging space faster with all cars, robo or not... faster turnover equates to higher Supercharger capacity.
 
Better yet (or easier to do) would be a way to at least auto-UNPLUG when finished charging and FSD drive away to a parking place to at least free up the finished charging space faster with all cars, robo or not... faster turnover equates to higher Supercharger capacity.
Reverse summon combined with simple automated charges should make that quite simple. No more overstay fees, if a Tesla is done charging then Tesla movies it for you.
My technical analysis on TSLA today is that it is showing a strong bullish spiky-spike-spike pattern.
Easy with the jargon. Some of us aren't CFAs.
 
Let me dumb it down further and ‘prepare’ you;

1) S&P does NOT have to accept TSLA into the index; there is NO must add rule, people get to decide, people are notorious for being vindictive, selfish, stupid etc...
2) There is NO guarantee TSLA will even budge a bloody CENT when or if it enters the S&P
3) All this hype talk about inclusion and SP hitting the roof is just that — hypothetical talk
4) See 1 thru 3

The more certain people jabber on about how freaking awesome the event is going to be, the more certain I become that I’m about to find poo in my Corn Flakes. :D:D:D:D:D

And that’s me being positive.
So what you're saying is.....if S&P doesnt accept TESLA...it goes up....and if enters the S&P....it wont go up :). You'll might poo in your corn flakes when your uber driver, cashier at a fast food restaurant, or your barber asks you if you're in the stock market and if you think its a good idea to buy $TSLA. It's a guarantee that you find poo if they start talking to you about LEAPS! :D:D:D:D:D:D
 
Just an FYI on this whole Supercharger broken promise discussion that seems to be so important at the moment. Tesla has ALWAYS adapted their business plan as needed. For example, there was a time when Elon believed, like Fred, that EVs don't need any more range than it takes to make it from supercharger to supercharger, to destination. However, through the years, they've learned that most people want and need MORE range in order for EVs to go mainstream.

It's no different with the superchargers. A few things have reduced the need for all the superchargers they once thought were needed. The biggest one is the aforementioned increase in range. It's obvious that the more range you have, the less chargers you will need. How many superchargers would really be needed if every model got 1000 miles of range? Probably not a single one more than we have today. So, as range moves up from the original max of 265 miles, fewer chargers are needed. Secondly, note that Tesla recently added 3rd party chargers to Navigation. It's also clear that Tesla is going to leverage these chargers. Even though U.S. cars can't currently charge using the CCS chargers, you can bet it's in the pipeline. Tesla isn't in the business of building chargers, they've done it out of necessity. They won't build a single charger that don't absolutely have to. And that's a good thing.
 
Aren't these the clowns that have a $295 PT on $TSLA? :confused:o_O

JPMorgan upgraded Nikola to overweight from neutral
JPMorgan upgraded the hybrid truck manufacturing company and said the stock is “starting to look attractive” for long-term investors.

“The stock has fallen 40% in July month-to-date (S&P 500 up 1.5%), and could fall some more in the near term when the special purpose acquisition company shares are freely tradable (and can be sold short), but NKLA stock is now trading below our $45.00 price target and starting to look attractive for long-term investors in view of a number of potential positive catalysts in coming weeks and months. In our view NKLA is currently a story-stock, but we are on board as long as the company executes to plan, and providing the stock offers a favorable risk-reward trade-off.”

Read more about this call here.

The first horseman...
 
Alive and well and posting as usual, except mostly now about trains and the NYPD. So not much has changed for him overall. He's here:

Disqus Profile - neroden

Cheers!

I also notice that the Supercharger route through North Dakota has been finished. Neroden always complained about that one.
 
A point regarding robotaxis:
Its not an all/nothing proposition. I will alwwyas own my own car, mostly because I lvie in a super-remote area. But I'd still *buy* a robotaxi, because I like the idea of it driving me home drunk from restaurants...
And when I do travel to a city, I'll likely use robotaxis to get around, because it saves the hassle of parking.
And imagine this:

You drive to the school to drop your kids off, then on to work. Around 3pm, your car goes off to pick up the kids and take em home, then comes back to your office ready for your drive home. Your kdis will behave on the drive home because of that cool internal camera.

I reckon even with true FSD, a lot of people will still own their own car, but that doesnt mean the FSD robotaxi element of it is not being used (and that it adds to the value of the car dramatically).
 
I’ve actually tried to find Elon’s original statement with no joy. What did he actually say re a million robots is. Seems to be some misinformation out there.



“I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year,” Musk said on stage at the Tesla Autonomy Investor Day in Palo Alto, California. They won’t be “in all jurisdictions, because we won’t have regulatory approval everywhere, but I am confident we will have at least regulatory approval somewhere, literally next year,” he said.


Given he's now saying he "hopes" to have the base re-write out late this year but remains unsure how fast any actual new features will be safe enough to use from it his confidence appears to have been...misplaced.

Source for the quotes (and some more stuff) here-
Elon Musk claims Tesla will have 1 million robotaxis on roads next year, but warns he's missed the mark before
 
The only thing I can conclude about the spiky-spike-spike pattern is that someone (short MMs?) is trying to initiate a cascade of stop loss sales, but institutions and retail investors keep buying up the dips. Any other theories on why we're seeing this wild, high frequency spiking going on but staying in generally the same trading range?