Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[samppa]

After Tsla is added to s&p500, are there any other major indices that will add it?

Msci world already has it.

 

[MC3OZ]

Excerpt from the S&P 500 blog that I posted today:



I mostly based this on the Investopedia article on benchmarks.

I think the point is if a benchmarked fund chooses to not buy Tesla, they are betting their alternative investments perform better than Tesla.

If they are not confident they weight their Tesla holding according to the index, and try to make a difference elsewhere.

If we step back a bit, lots of these funds have big holdings in oil stocks, there is significant risk of a downside there, especially if Tesla is successful.

IMO most people with money in funds are perhaps too trusting and too slow to move their money to a better option, but the fund managers know bad performance might ultimately cost them

 

[MC3OZ]

Another thought from Fact Checking on Twitter, this time about a capital raise. Includes an interesting GIF.

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1284368559653695490

My thoughts are similar, if Tesla plans more aggressive expansion, a raise coupled with the S&P 500 and Battery Day, with outlining of future plans... will not hurt the share price at all...

One way or another the funds will buy much more than the shares issued..

 

[kanweg]

When Elon first mentioned getting into mining I was as surprised as everyone else.
But after watching a lot of videos (I linked some in the battery day thread) Tesla Battery Investor Day

My hunch is a 60% chance Tesla would get into mining and processing of battery raw materials.

The reasons to do it are the same as the reasons to do anything else:-

• Assets are well priced, relative to future cost savings.
• Supply certainty de-risks other investment decisions
• Investment in Battery raw material mining and processing lags projected future demand - price spikes/materials shortages are likely.
• Tesla can scale vehicle and cell production - this is a potential bottleneck.

Some mining and materials projects are "shovel ready" what they need is capital, others need R&D so are higher risk but offer potentially higher returns. Projects of both types exist in the US, and are at early stage..

My hunch is that investments might reduce the cost of raw materials for a car battery by a significant amount.

My guess 5-7 year payback, perhaps shorter, 20-50 year operational life.,

There is also the "Tesla effect" that this will get other investments off the fence, and get other projects built...


When people say some other type of battery might obsolete Li-ion, the questions are:-
1) What is that battery?
2) When will it be ready at scale?

Every Tesla sold in the next 1-2 years possibly sells another 5 Teslas over the next 5-7 years..

It is by no means a certainly that Tesla would get into mining and processing, but it isn't something they should dismiss without a "deep dive". They have done that "dive" and we will find out the answer on Battery Day.

I can only hope that they already settled on the price then, because if Tesla goes up much further or does a capital raise, if I were a mining company I’d raise the price for which I want to sell significantly.

Mining is one, purifying is another. With respect to the latter, Tesla may put innovation to good work and reduce the cost of that. They are not afraid of making big decisions instead of running old machinery a bit longer to squeeze out more profit that way.

 

[MC3OZ]

I can only hope that they already settled on the price then, because if Tesla goes up much further or does a capital raise, if I were a mining company I’d raise the price for which I want to sell significantly.

Mining is one, purifying is another. With respect to the latter, Tesla may put innovation to good work and reduce the cost of that. They are not afraid of making big decisions instead of running old machinery a bit longer to squeeze out more profit that way.

Most of these projects are finding it hard to get finance, it seems they are being valued on current demand, not future demand.. and the 2 projects I think Tesla might be most interested in (i'm fairly sure) haven't even started mining or processing.

If they are doing it, they probably announce on Battery Day that they have made the acquisitions, capital raise is for the purposes of building the mine and processing plant.

 

[Tslynk67]

Racehorse style names like SpaceX's drone ships.

The SpaceX drone ships are named after Culture ships (and if you didn't read Iain M. Banks yet, then get started - will give you a glimpse into Elon's thinking)

List of spacecraft in the Culture series

Legacy
The The Player of Games, as a posthumous homage to Banks by [11] The construction of a fourth drone ship, named A Shortfall of Gravitas, was announced by Elon Musk via Twitter on February 12, 2018.[12] It is named after the Experiencing A Significant Gravitas Shortfall, a ship mentioned in Look to Windward and Matter as a GSV and GCU respectively.

 

[Tslynk67]

There will always be shorts....if this happens..there will just be a lot more poorer shorts.

Sometimes, when I'm really drunk or doing mushrooms, I imagine there could be some smart short-sellers who could in theory sell short at the peak of the "infinity squeeze".

But then I sober up...

 

[MC3OZ]

(July 16) Tesla Gigafactory 3 steady stream of trucks carrying equipment

 

[Favguy]

The SpaceX drone ships are named after Culture ships (and if you didn't read Iain M. Banks yet, then get started - will give you a glimpse into Elon's thinking)

List of spacecraft in the Culture series

Legacy
The The Player of Games, as a posthumous homage to Banks by [11] The construction of a fourth drone ship, named A Shortfall of Gravitas, was announced by Elon Musk via Twitter on February 12, 2018.[12] It is named after the Experiencing A Significant Gravitas Shortfall, a ship mentioned in Look to Windward and Matter as a GSV and GCU respectively.

I suspected the drone ship names might have been influenced by Iain Banks Culture series of novels. It's such a shame we lost him so early

 

[Jack6591]

So much has been said of S&P inclusion, but I can’t stop thinking about Wednesday’s guidance.

This is going to be an awesome earnings call.

 

[DutchDriver]

I hope and I think TSLA will rise after Wednesday, but still in the back of my head I have a voice telling me not to be too hyped.
During the years I have seen so much strange movements going on when it comes to the stock price.

 

[kanweg]

(and if you didn't read Iain M. Banks yet, then get started - will give you a glimpse into Elon's thinking)
.

Can you recommend a particular title?

 

[juanmedina]

Weekend OT

 

[phantasms]

Yes even though the La Ferrari is Ferrari’s first plug in able Ferrari ( if you look closely at the one in my avatar pic - it’s plugged in ), I would love to see Ferrari make a “Ferrar-e” to go up against the roadster.

their last CEO said said they would never make an all electric car, but he’s dead now. And the roadster will prompt some thought on that front.

I really hope the roadster comes out soon because it will have the effect of as Elon said “ putting the final smack down on gas powered cars” and fast track the laggards into the present

that could also have a halo effect on the Tesla and the SP, because it will mean Tesla is locking horns with the titan of racing, the most winning team in F1 racing history and the arguably the most respected sports car brand in the world

oh yeah. I’m all too familiar with the hyper Ferrari’s, and retooling them. Here’s my old garage with my father-in-law’s whip in it. Recognize it?

I look forward to having the fastest car in the family, the Roadster II. lol

 

[Words of HABIT]

Why does she write this? "The rally has boosted the electric car maker’s market value to $325 billion, making Tesla the most valued car company in the world after Japan’s Toyota Motor Co"

@LAexpress, looks like Claudia Assis read your post, as the article is now changed from "325 billion" to "around $280 billion"). I think without knowing it, she got a little bit ahead of herself and foresaw the future Market Cap of Tesla on after hours, July 22nd, hence the $320B in her original article. We are adding $50B then, right?

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

oh yeah. I’m all too familiar with the hyper Ferrari’s, and retooling them. Here’s my old garage with my father-in-law’s whip in it. Recognize it?

I look forward to having the fastest car in the family, the Roadster II. lol

View attachment 565914

P4/5. Owner initials : JG?

cool car!

 

[Words of HABIT]

Don't want to clog this thread, so started a poll: Poll: Will Tesla show a profit Q2 2020?

@rdalcanto, the results are quite striking. If the poll were to be asked to those outside of TMC I'm positive the results would be reversed. TMC contributors and readers have knowledge, and this knowledge is a very powerful thing. Thank you TMC! I now get all my daily news from TMC except the local weather forecast.

 

[SPadival]

Hello

 

[Krugerrand]

Hello

What? You think you can just show up out of the blue like this after such a long departure time (and no formal goodbye) and assume we’ll just forget you abandoned us?

BTW, nice SP, huh?

 

[Krugerrand]

@rdalcanto, the results are quite striking. If the poll were to be asked to those outside of TMC I'm positive the results would be reversed. TMC contributors and readers have knowledge, and this knowledge is a very powerful thing. Thank you TMC! I now get all my daily news from TMC except the local weather forecast.

Or, we’re just optimistic.