Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

When Elon first mentioned getting into mining I was as surprised as everyone else.
But after watching a lot of videos (I linked some in the battery day thread) Tesla Battery Investor Day

My hunch is a 60% chance Tesla would get into mining and processing of battery raw materials.

The reasons to do it are the same as the reasons to do anything else:-

• Assets are well priced, relative to future cost savings.
• Supply certainty de-risks other investment decisions
• Investment in Battery raw material mining and processing lags projected future demand - price spikes/materials shortages are likely.
• Tesla can scale vehicle and cell production - this is a potential bottleneck.

Some mining and materials projects are "shovel ready" what they need is capital, others need R&D so are higher risk but offer potentially higher returns. Projects of both types exist in the US, and are at early stage..

My hunch is that investments might reduce the cost of raw materials for a car battery by a significant amount.

My guess 5-7 year payback, perhaps shorter, 20-50 year operational life.,

There is also the "Tesla effect" that this will get other investments off the fence, and get other projects built...


When people say some other type of battery might obsolete Li-ion, the questions are:-
1) What is that battery?
2) When will it be ready at scale?

Every Tesla sold in the next 1-2 years possibly sells another 5 Teslas over the next 5-7 years..

It is by no means a certainly that Tesla would get into mining and processing, but it isn't something they should dismiss without a "deep dive". They have done that "dive" and we will find out the answer on Battery Day.

 

[Beltsbear]

What does it mean ?

More dilution for Nikola shareholders. If the float was normal on nikola I would short. But borrowing costs arE high.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Hopefully...this will be shorts next week:

 

[Curt Renz]

Not only would S&P related index funds have to buy TSLA after S&P 500 inclusion. So would other funds that at least want to keep up with the S&P, as noted in the article posted below.

I would add that perhaps overlooked are funds that have a similar rule requiring a component to have four successive quarters of profitability, and have been holding back on buying TSLA until that occurs.

Barron's - half hour ago: The Big 3 Index Providers Have a Huge Amount of Power–Even Over Tesla

Excerpt:

If Tesla is added to the S&P 500 stock index this year, it will be a big win for the electric-vehicle maker and its shareholders. That's because money managers who run funds that track the index or compare their performance against it will have to buy Tesla's shares. Not owning the stock (ticker: TSLA), even though it has already soared 259% this year, netting Tesla a market value of $278 billion, could mean that a large-cap fund manager's performance would instantly trail that of the index, something no money manager specializing in the biggest stocks would want to risk.

 

[Artful Dodger]

NKLA down 20% in AH

Nikola tumbles 18.4% on share offer filing by company, holders (NASDAQ:NKLA) | Seeking Alpha

 

[MC3OZ]

https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1283126451198406661

If Elon sees this twitter post it might be game over

NaughtyPilot

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Fri, Jul 17, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "MMs Enforce MaxPain for Mthly Options Expiry"

Traded: $14,159,554,838.62 ($14.16 B)
Volume: 9,386,541
VWAP: $1,508.50

Closing SP / VWAP: 99.51%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $278.368B / $176.485B = 157.73%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $227.88B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $148.18B*
*High confidence $150B 6-mth Mkt Cap will be exceeded on Tue, Jul 21, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 56.4% (52nd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 49.3% (55th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.99% of Short Volume (49th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "Elon is very likely to earn his 2nd Tranche on July 21st, 2020"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[BornToFly]

Don't want to clog this thread, so started a poll: Poll: Will Tesla show a profit Q2 2020?

 

[willow_hiller]

I've always thought about "disruption" in the macroeconomic sense, but today I think I found my first example of disruption at a microeconomic-level.

In a thread on Reddit about the new Tesla Solar pricing, a solar installer said "I just looked at Tesla pricing yesterday and ran the numbers and was shocked how they can sell a 4KW at $2.01 watt. Nonetheless, I’m in a career shift."

Probably a lot of cumulative factors led him to make that decision, but it's hard not to feel like Tesla just rocked the solar industry with these price cuts, and it's already forcing smaller installers to re-evaluate their business models.

 

[new_sneakers]

A while back Jeff Dahn's presentation about the million mile battery was on YouTube. I made a complete transcript with screenshots. I will post it here on the weekend (or perhaps I am allowed to make a new thread, and will just post a link here). Many will have seen the presentation through the dropbox link in this thread but the transcript may be useful for some. He describes the process to make the million mile battery as "easy".

Happy weekend! I have posted a transcript of Jeff Dahn's presentation about the million mile battery, including every slide and every word he said, in the "Battery Improvements - Pieces of the Puzzle" thread.

Battery Improvements - Pieces of the Puzzle

 

[EV forever]

Looks like he is back on Twitter

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1284291528328790016?s=20

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Don't want to clog this thread, so started a poll: Poll: Will Tesla show a profit Q2 2020?

I would fall out of my chair if they posted a profit of exactly $420.69.

 

[phantasms]

I would fall out of my chair if they posted a profit of exactly $420.69.

That would immediately value the stock so high we could all get La Ferrari’s and convert them to proper Raven S drivetrains.

 

[CorneliusXX]

53.39 million shares common stock offering lol.

with $1b in the bank and only 256 employees ($4m raised per employee!!) Trevor can have his products "coming soon" for many years to come.

 

[mekberg]

That would immediately value the stock so high we could all get La Ferrari’s and convert them to proper Raven S drivetrains.

Or wait and buy a roadster and an island.

 

[Singuy]

I've always thought about "disruption" in the macroeconomic sense, but today I think I found my first example of disruption at a microeconomic-level.

In a thread on Reddit about the new Tesla Solar pricing, a solar installer said "I just looked at Tesla pricing yesterday and ran the numbers and was shocked how they can sell a 4KW at $2.01 watt. Nonetheless, I’m in a career shift."

Probably a lot of cumulative factors led him to make that decision, but it's hard not to feel like Tesla just rocked the solar industry with these price cuts, and it's already forcing smaller installers to re-evaluate their business models.

Is that a question on Say.com yet? Because someone needs to ask them about this solar craziness. An eye brow has been raised when you are making panels cheaper than the Chinese.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

That would immediately value the stock so high we could all get La Ferrari’s and convert them to proper Raven S drivetrains.

Yes even though the La Ferrari is Ferrari’s first plug in able Ferrari ( if you look closely at the one in my avatar pic - it’s plugged in ), I would love to see Ferrari make a “Ferrar-e” to go up against the roadster.

their last CEO said said they would never make an all electric car, but he’s dead now. And the roadster will prompt some thought on that front.

I really hope the roadster comes out soon because it will have the effect of as Elon said “ putting the final smack down on gas powered cars” and fast track the laggards into the present

that could also have a halo effect on the Tesla and the SP, because it will mean Tesla is locking horns with the titan of racing, the most winning team in F1 racing history and the arguably the most respected sports car brand in the world

 

[UkNorthampton]

Fossil Fuel Companies Are Beginning to Fall Behind on Their Loans

As predicted here.

Dominoes.

1. Fossil fuel companies fall.
2. Banks fall. In the sense of a domino. Most exposed, most FF connected suffer most.
3. FF directors not wanted on boards of directors of other companies especially banks.
4. FF rightly viewed as toxic in every way
5. FF can't borrow
6. FF further collapses
7. FF viewed as failed
8. Ambitious people run from FF
9. FF can't get talent
10. Lobbying by FF falls
11. Politicians flip against FF
12. Media flips against ff
13. Renewable industry rises.
14. Renewables directors wanted on boards of directors of banks and others
15. Renewables influence grows and overwhelms last dinosaurs.
16. Finally we have stopped digging one environmental hole.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Dominoes.

1. Fossil fuel companies fall.
2. Banks fall.
3. FF directors not wanted on boards of directors of other companies especially banks.
4. FF rightly viewed as toxic in every way
5. Ambitious people run from FF
6. Lobbying by FF falls
7. Politicians flip against FF
8. Media flips against ff
9. Renewable industry rises.
10. Renewables directors wanted on boards of directors of banks and others
11. Renewables influence grows and overwhelms last dinosaurs.
12. Finally we have stopped digging one environmental hole.

Agree with all except I hope not for #2 - and only because my TSLA stock is held at my bank brokerage!

 

[Curt Renz]

Awesome Finance - today: