Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

Tesla could soon join the S&P 500 — but inclusion isn't automatic, even with a full year of profitability

The backroom dealers will do all in their power to try to slow this down.
If S&P doesn't add Tesla, then S&P might lag Tesla

 

[oldTAVguy]

Adam Jonas has no butthole

2

 

[Prunesquallor]

Many remember last January's ARK-Invest analysis of possible TSLA SP trajectories during the next five years:
Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

I've modeled time-histories of these scenarios as simple exponential SP functions starting at the beginning of 2020 Q1 (SP of $425) through the end of 2024 Q4 (ending at ARK's price target). These appear linear in the following semi-log plot. I've also started plotting the actual Tesla SP on a quarterly basis.

Note we are about 6 months ahead of ARK's most optimistic "Golden Goose" scenario.

 

[scaesare]

Adam Jonas has no butthole

Now, now... that's not nice.

It's just that you can't see it because his shoulders are in the way.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

2

He has '2' buttholes??

 

[Rammstein]

First you ask about Q3, then you talk about other than automobiles. Are you implying that Q3 will show huge growth in something other than automobiles AND that Mr. Market will value that growth highly today?

Nope not at all. I was implying you can’t compare Tesla to other OEMs. To me it just doesn’t make sense to do that. I’m implying that Tesla will eventually have higher margins than other OEMs because of the software they sell and who knows we might see that in Q3.

 

[smorgasbord]

FYI, SP fine before I entered dentist office, got teeth cleaned the old fashion way because that’s how they do it now, walk out of office a big drop in SP.

Today’s informative message: floss more and skip your dentist cleaning appointments until further notice.

Only Dr. JellyFinger can positively affect TSLA's share price:

(Start at 1:40)


"Moon river!"

 

[Ameliorate]

Many remember last January's ARK-Invest analysis of possible TSLA SP trajectories during the next five years:
Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

I've modeled time-histories of these scenarios as simple exponential SP functions starting at the beginning of 2020 Q1 (SP of $425) through the end of 2024 Q4 (ending at ARK's price target). These appear linear in the following semi-log plot. I've also started plotting the actual Tesla SP on a quarterly basis.

View attachment 567201

Note we are about 6 months ahead of ARK's most optimistic "Golden Goose" scenario.

I'd be curious to see this plotted from 2013-2014. It's fairly obvious Tesla was worth more than 300 in 2019, fair value had to be closer to 700+ fun exercise though.

I was trying to explain the underlying value of the company to family looking like one of your projections with a rising linear line, then overlaid the stock chart as the markets best guess as to what current valuation was. When you do so it looked like a huge buying opportunity in 2018-2019 as the markets guess was 100% or more below my theoretical real value of the company.

Since there is no correct answer for the actual valuation, even if one did buy at 1600 and the true value was 1200 today, in 5 years the true value will be significantly higher than 1600 so it's no big deal. Great if you can buy at a discount but in the long run you'd do fine either way so long as Tesla keeps growing YoY.

 

[Steve m]

Do you think Q3 results will be bad?

What I find silly is there are still bulls on this board that compare Tesla to other automakers. Tesla is a completely different company that will have higher margins with software. Tesla is more of a software company that provides transportation and energy solutions.

Tesla is a car maker.
Car dealership
Car repair
Car filling station network
Power plant manufacturer
Power re-seller
Internet service provider
Large scale Neural Network trainer
Automation Equipment Manufacturer
And
The CEO can even give dance lessons

 

[oldTAVguy]

He has '2' buttholes??

Both ends, can't tell the difference of output between them.

 

[capster]

LOL. At $2,000/share, Tesla is more highly valued than all other automakers in the world. COMBINED.

Yes. And?

It is certainly far more valuable to me, but then I’m pretty sure I know how the story ends.

 

[Nocturnal]

Yes, I think Tesla's Q3 results will result in a stock price above $2,000. Tesla doesn't even need Tesla Energy/Solar growth. I'm not sure how anyone here isn't expecting deliveries of at least 135k vehicles in Q3 which is 50% growth. Revenue for the quarter will likely jump to 9 billion for Q3. I personally think Tesla will deliver around 150k vehicles in Q3 which would be an 10-11 billion quarter. The effects of that ramp will profound on Tesla's earnings. Wall St has not factored this in or is unwilling to accept it......which is why I think Q3 numbers will easily support any sell off from S&P inclusion.

I'm not making any specific predictions, but many of the people who can afford a Tesla are currently more flush with cash than they would have been otherwise. This recession has not hurt white collar workers in nearly the same way. What is has done is limited our other ways of spending money like vacations and dining out. No vacation this year? Maybe time to buy that shiny Tesla.

Many remember last January's ARK-Invest analysis of possible TSLA SP trajectories during the next five years:
Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

I've modeled time-histories of these scenarios as simple exponential SP functions starting at the beginning of 2020 Q1 (SP of $425) through the end of 2024 Q4 (ending at ARK's price target). These appear linear in the following semi-log plot. I've also started plotting the actual Tesla SP on a quarterly basis.

View attachment 567201

Note we are about 6 months ahead of ARK's most optimistic "Golden Goose" scenario.

I'll be so sad if the actual line just reverts to the golden goose scenario. ​

 

[Todd Burch]

On the topic of valuing Tesla against other car companies, here's why I think Tesla could easily be worth more than all other car companies combined.

1. Tesla owns all service and sales locations. Other carmakers do not.
2. Tesla has its own proprietary driving autonomy solution which is all in-house, comes in a package that is affordable (low hardware cost) and already deployed. The only thing holding it back is software. Recall the valuation of Mobileye when it was purchased, which is not as complete a deployed solution. Any carmaker that wants to use Mobileye will have to pay a good chunk of cash to Mobileye. Tesla keeps all of theirs.
3. Related to (2), Tesla is the only carmaker with a well-developed software deployment strategy. This is a huge benefit.
4. Tesla has a huge technical, production, and market share lead in the up-and-coming drivetrain technology (EVs), whereas everyone else has the *liability* of the outgoing drivetrain technology (ICE). Again, it is a liability to be focused on a dying technology. Tesla has zero of this liability.
5. Is there any carmaker that is more vertically integrated than Tesla? I don't think so. Result? Higher margins because Tesla keeps more of the pie.
6. Tesla's vehicle margins are far above the industry average. They can make the same amount of money by selling far less cars.
7. Tesla owns the refueling locations (Superchargers) and has refueling infrastructure far beyond anyone else.
8. Tesla has a huge lead in battery production capacity. Nobody else comes close.
9. Tesla is not just a carmaker. They are also a major provider of energy storage, a market which is growing quickly.
10. Tesla solar. Yet another industry.
11. Tesla is also going into the short and long-haul trucking industry, something most carmakers do not dabble in.
12. Tesla collects far more autonomous driving data than anyone else. Not even close. Data is valuable with AI, because data is king.
13. Tesla has the most tenured CEO, someone who is known for his tenacity and for succeeding at doing things previously thought nearly impossible. (Rockets landing without going boom).
14. The best engineers in the world want to work at Tesla. The best engineers in the world don't want to work at GM.
15. Tesla is securing tons of battery supply, or seeking ways to vertically integrate battery production. Again, cut out the middleman, starve others from battery supply, etc. Helps cement your lead.
16. Tesla has strong brand recognition as a leader in EV technology and customer satisfaction.
17. Tesla is a proven innovator, over and over again. This is valuable.
18. Tesla has Silicon Valley software engineers. They're among the best in the world.

I'm sure there are more reasons. This is just what I thought up over the course of 5-10 minutes.

 

[Mo City]

$1600 is the new $1500.

 

[Steve m]

Batteries and insurance.

Soon may be making heat pumps for buildings

 

[smorgasbord]

On the topic of valuing Tesla against other car companies, here's why I think Tesla could easily be worth more than all other car companies combined.

1. Tesla owns all service and sales locations. Other carmakers do not.
2. Tesla has its own proprietary driving autonomy solution which is all in-house, comes in a package that is affordable (low hardware cost) and already deployed. The only thing holding it back is software. Recall the valuation of Mobileye when it was purchased, which is not as complete a deployed solution. Any carmaker that wants to use Mobileye will have to pay a good chunk of cash to Mobileye. Tesla keeps all of theirs.
3. Related to (2), Tesla is the only carmaker with a well-developed software deployment strategy. This is a huge benefit.
4. Tesla has a huge technical, production, and market share lead in the up-and-coming drivetrain technology (EVs), whereas everyone else has the *liability* of the outgoing drivetrain technology (ICE). Again, it is a liability to be focused on a dying technology. Tesla has zero of this liability.
5. Is there any carmaker that is more vertically integrated than Tesla? I don't think so. Result? Higher margins because Tesla keeps more of the pie.
6. Tesla's vehicle margins are far above the industry average. They can make the same amount of money by selling far less cars.
7. Tesla owns the refueling locations (Superchargers) and has refueling infrastructure far beyond anyone else.
8. Tesla has a huge lead in battery production capacity. Nobody else comes close.
9. Tesla is not just a carmaker. They are also a major provider of energy storage, a market which is growing quickly.
10. Tesla solar. Yet another industry.
11. Tesla is also going into the short and long-haul trucking industry, something most carmakers do not dabble in.
12. Tesla collects far more autonomous driving data than anyone else. Not even close. Data is valuable with AI, because data is king.
13. Tesla has the most tenured CEO, someone who is known for his tenacity and for succeeding at doing things previously thought nearly impossible. (Rockets landing without going boom).
14. The best engineers in the world want to work at Tesla. The best engineers in the world don't want to work at GM.
15. Tesla is securing tons of battery supply, or seeking ways to vertically integrate battery production. Again, cut out the middleman, starve others from battery supply, etc. Helps cement your lead.
16. Tesla has strong brand recognition as a leader in EV technology and customer satisfaction.
17. Tesla is a proven innovator, over and over again. This is valuable.

I'm sure there are more reasons. This is just what I thought up over the course of 5-10 minutes.

I can agree with most of those.

None of them, however, justify a $2,000 price on the basis of a good 2020 Q3 in Mr. Market's eyes, as has been claimed.

 

[Nocturnal]

On the topic of valuing Tesla against other car companies, here's why I think Tesla could easily be worth more than all other car companies combined.

1. Tesla owns all service and sales locations. Other carmakers do not.
11. Tesla is also going into the short and long-haul trucking industry, something most carmakers do not dabble in.


I'm sure there are more reasons. This is just what I thought up over the course of 5-10 minutes.

Ignoring all the software stuff, I think #1 is the most obvious, but most over looked. #11 is also huge. Tesla may wind up dominating that Industry. So sure, Toyota dominates passenger cars, but they don't sell any (IIRC) semis. If Tesla can build a cyber type work van they could also dominate that segment.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I can agree with most of those.

None of them, however, justify a $2,000 price on the basis of a good 2020 Q3 in Mr. Market's eyes, as has been claimed.

I am so looking forward to coming back to this page after Q3 earnings. I would gladly eat crow if I'm wrong but I'm confident I'm not..........but I have this page bookmarked now to revisit

 

[SO16]

On the topic of valuing Tesla against other car companies, here's why I think Tesla could easily be worth more than all other car companies combined.

1. Tesla owns all service and sales locations. Other carmakers do not.
2. Tesla has its own proprietary driving autonomy solution which is all in-house, comes in a package that is affordable (low hardware cost) and already deployed. The only thing holding it back is software. Recall the valuation of Mobileye when it was purchased, which is not as complete a deployed solution. Any carmaker that wants to use Mobileye will have to pay a good chunk of cash to Mobileye. Tesla keeps all of theirs.
3. Related to (2), Tesla is the only carmaker with a well-developed software deployment strategy. This is a huge benefit.
4. Tesla has a huge technical, production, and market share lead in the up-and-coming drivetrain technology (EVs), whereas everyone else has the *liability* of the outgoing drivetrain technology (ICE). Again, it is a liability to be focused on a dying technology. Tesla has zero of this liability.
5. Is there any carmaker that is more vertically integrated than Tesla? I don't think so. Result? Higher margins because Tesla keeps more of the pie.
6. Tesla's vehicle margins are far above the industry average. They can make the same amount of money by selling far less cars.
7. Tesla owns the refueling locations (Superchargers) and has refueling infrastructure far beyond anyone else.
8. Tesla has a huge lead in battery production capacity. Nobody else comes close.
9. Tesla is not just a carmaker. They are also a major provider of energy storage, a market which is growing quickly.
10. Tesla solar. Yet another industry.
11. Tesla is also going into the short and long-haul trucking industry, something most carmakers do not dabble in.
12. Tesla collects far more autonomous driving data than anyone else. Not even close. Data is valuable with AI, because data is king.
13. Tesla has the most tenured CEO, someone who is known for his tenacity and for succeeding at doing things previously thought nearly impossible. (Rockets landing without going boom).
14. The best engineers in the world want to work at Tesla. The best engineers in the world don't want to work at GM.
15. Tesla is securing tons of battery supply, or seeking ways to vertically integrate battery production. Again, cut out the middleman, starve others from battery supply, etc. Helps cement your lead.
16. Tesla has strong brand recognition as a leader in EV technology and customer satisfaction.
17. Tesla is a proven innovator, over and over again. This is valuable.

I'm sure there are more reasons. This is just what I thought up over the course of 5-10 minutes.

Tesla insurance. This is also huge as they can get access to video for the accident, see how responsible drivers are, etc.

 

[oldTAVguy]

On the topic of valuing Tesla against other car companies, here's why I think Tesla could easily be worth more than all other car companies combined.

1. Tesla owns all service and sales locations. Other carmakers do not.
2. Tesla has its own proprietary driving autonomy solution which is all in-house, comes in a package that is affordable (low hardware cost) and already deployed. The only thing holding it back is software. Recall the valuation of Mobileye when it was purchased, which is not as complete a deployed solution. Any carmaker that wants to use Mobileye will have to pay a good chunk of cash to Mobileye. Tesla keeps all of theirs.
3. Related to (2), Tesla is the only carmaker with a well-developed software deployment strategy. This is a huge benefit.
4. Tesla has a huge technical, production, and market share lead in the up-and-coming drivetrain technology (EVs), whereas everyone else has the *liability* of the outgoing drivetrain technology (ICE). Again, it is a liability to be focused on a dying technology. Tesla has zero of this liability.
5. Is there any carmaker that is more vertically integrated than Tesla? I don't think so. Result? Higher margins because Tesla keeps more of the pie.
6. Tesla's vehicle margins are far above the industry average. They can make the same amount of money by selling far less cars.
7. Tesla owns the refueling locations (Superchargers) and has refueling infrastructure far beyond anyone else.
8. Tesla has a huge lead in battery production capacity. Nobody else comes close.
9. Tesla is not just a carmaker. They are also a major provider of energy storage, a market which is growing quickly.
10. Tesla solar. Yet another industry.
11. Tesla is also going into the short and long-haul trucking industry, something most carmakers do not dabble in.
12. Tesla collects far more autonomous driving data than anyone else. Not even close. Data is valuable with AI, because data is king.
13. Tesla has the most tenured CEO, someone who is known for his tenacity and for succeeding at doing things previously thought nearly impossible. (Rockets landing without going boom).
14. The best engineers in the world want to work at Tesla. The best engineers in the world don't want to work at GM.
15. Tesla is securing tons of battery supply, or seeking ways to vertically integrate battery production. Again, cut out the middleman, starve others from battery supply, etc. Helps cement your lead.
16. Tesla has strong brand recognition as a leader in EV technology and customer satisfaction.
17. Tesla is a proven innovator, over and over again. This is valuable.

I'm sure there are more reasons. This is just what I thought up over the course of 5-10 minutes.

Way too many good points, can't give Like, Love, Information and Helpful at the same time.