Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

Thank you. What does it take for the IV to go back up in the coming week/weeks, realistically, if at all? A very significant rise in the SP?

Volatility. The more the stock behaves unpredictably, IV will go up, and options premiums go up. When a stock is pinned, as MMs like to often do, the IV goes down and premiums go down.

As a call buyer, your primary concern should be the stock price going up, but you should be aware of how IV crush might impact you following an event. It won’t really matter when the SP pops next week - your contracts will still appreciate (but a lower IV results in a lower delta). This is why lotto calls often don’t work out as hoped for the day or two after unless the buy was timed correctly.

 

[dww12]

Plot twist, Tesla offers new shares @$2500. S&P can not fix the price if they insist on making new shares can they?

 

[mrmage]

We’ve seen this story before. After a positive report the SP is suppressed on Thursday and Friday, rises the next week or the week after. In the past I sold options on Friday for a 30% loss rather than a 10,000% gain two days later.

I didn’t buy before earnings this time because of the expected IV crush and this pattern. If TSLA stays around 1600 through tomorrow, I’ll pick up some options.

 

[EVMeister]

A dash of perspective — GM and Ford earnings draw nigh.

Bah, Ha, Ha, Ha...

What earnings would they be?

 

[dl003]

What earnings would they be?

My sympathy. Not.

 

[cricketman]

Ha ha, this is funny

I was expecting shares to shoot up to over $2,000 overnight!

I have picked up another few this morning at $1,555.

My plan was to sell maybe 30% of my shares between $2,000 and $3,000 and hope it drops back to $1,500 long term to buy them back. That way I make an easy $1 million. No big deal if that doesnt happen as if it is more stable I will just hold them long term, but surely the fund managers need to be buying TSLA big time soon? Maybe the S&P announcement will be the trigger? But that sounds too obvious...

 

[ninpb]

My gut tells me the MMs are using their ammunition trying to keep a drop going, and the rest of the market is scooping up those shares. When the MM's clip runs dry, we shoot back up.

Can someone explain in layman's terms how MM's can do this? What are they spending their money on and how? Stocks, options, propaganda?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Also, the recent Boring Co substation mockups with only Model 3 don't make sense: a van that can take 9 (3 persons in 3 rows, no driver seat) would be far better than a 3/Y that can take 5, especially if getting in/out of the vehicles is the bottleneck. I guess Elon knows this but is just waiting robotaxi to be prevalent before introducing Tesla vans (people must understand how practical they are to appreciate them), and thereforre keep the SEXY lineup image as long as possible.

Those mockups are for the three station Las Vegas convention center Loop. Boring will be using it as a showcase for Tesla cars, effectively giving all convention goers test drives. Other projects may have different vehicles.

Having said that, if Boring ever gets a chance to build the equivalent of a metro subway system, it may use a lot of one person pods as well as a smaller amount of higher capacity pods. A metro system will have many parallel tunnels which will allow pods to go directly from start to destination and bypass all intermediate stations, as well as being able to automatically switch “lines”, so no need to disembark when taking different lines.

When people get to a station, they’ll be able to choose among pod types.

Think underground freeway rather than subway for the Boring company projects.

 

[jhm]

Thank you. What does it take for the IV to go back up in the coming week/weeks, realistically, if at all? A very significant rise in the SP?

In theory, neither a rise or fall in stock price should change IV. Rather the expectation of future increased volatility drives changes in IV. Now that the Q2 results are know, it is natural for actual volatility and IV to fall back to typical levels.

 

[Opus BC fan]

But I've also seen the fake MMD recover a bit so they catch a few more fish.
They want my shares so bad, makes me clinch harder. I reviewed Hyper Change EC summary this morning. Ya 1% of everything is a lot considering R&D and growth are on full throttle. It's actually perfect.
One possible headwind short term is that the next big news (Battery day) is a ways out. So don't be surprised by bear "attempts" for weeks now. Ongoing news on innovation keeps it afloat until then.

I think there are many wildcards in play before battery day. Among them are the S&P inclusion announcement, possible stock split, possible cash raise, FSD, and the ongoing innovations you mentioned. The long term trend is undeniable (by those with rational minds). I don't have the fortitude it would require to play TSLA short term, but it is fun to watch.

 

[chrsk]

Can someone explain in layman's terms how MM's can do this? What are they spending their money on and how? Stocks, options, propaganda?

Almost 10 millions shares have been traded in the first 90 minutes. Typical is around 15, for a whole day...

 

[Jack6591]

I spent nearly seven years in the United States Navy. Dating myself, that was from 1974 until 1980. That experience has often brought me to reflect upon the Navy’s role in protecting the world’s shipping lanes.

When considering the billions and billions of dollars spent on the U.S. military, the argument against Tesla regulatory credits leaves me speechless.

The U.S. Navy is tasked with protecting oil tankers and their cargo across the globe. Is this not a direct subsidy of the fossil-fuel industry?

Tesla regulatory credits; pocket change. The gall of the fossil-fuel industry is mind boggling. We should be crying bullshit in a loud and clear voice.

 

[Krugerrand]

Today is going to be wild. I want to see how the big whales react, they don't trade AH.

Wild, huh? So far I feel like I’m on the kiddie ride.

 

[Beezer_9]

Found some!
I’ve done my part for Q3.

We are BULLS dealing with Bull###t!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Wild, huh? So far I feel like I’m on the kiddie ride.

 

[Krugerrand]

Talk about desperate FUD....

View attachment 567925

At least they picked the perfect picture for the headline. That’s the exact same look I had on my face reading it.

 

[tinm]

Tesla's stock price and market valuation are 'insane,' says AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson

The CEO of AutoNation thinks Tesla is insane.

Well of course he does.

“But he has a business model that is still very dependent on the government.”

Oh you have to love that coming from an auto dealer, the most middleman of middleman industries in history, which has only managed to exist by wrapping itself around state governments like an anaconda and holding on tight, enshrining their century-plus-old business model in state laws as a protectionist ploy from uppity manufacturers like Tesla. Dealers are utterly dependent on the government, and in many states the legislatures are utterly dependent on dealers for campaign contributions.

Awful nice ecosystem you got there, Mr. Jackson. It would be a shame if something happened to it.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla sues Rivian for poaching employees, stealing intellectual property.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

*Angry face*. Scumbags

 

[Knightshade]

Or, in other words, Elon wants Tesla to be a high growth stock. Sheesh. I guess we can infer from that headline that their readership knows almost nothing about stock investing?

Yup- I cringed when I heard Elon say that on the call- because I was sure anybody who didn't understand the company or the mission would jump all over it... "He doesn't ever want to be significantly profitable! WTF is the stock price going up for?!"

(those that do of course just nodded, but then we also knew what the 3k Y cut was about while FUDsters screamed NO DEMAND)

 

[aubreymcfato]

And this points out the fallacy of the short-seller talking point that the profit is fake because it relied on regulatory credits that won't be around forever. While the credits won't be around forever is true, it's only true because "forever" is a long time. In the interim, they are growing faster than production costs are declining! By the time the credits are declining, production costs will be so low they won't even need to credits to be strongly profitable (much more profitable than the current situation WITH the credits).

I really don't get it. Auto industries got subsidies globally, for decades, at different steps of their value chain (gas, state incentives, etc.). As any analyst yelled "FRAUD!!1!" because of those?
Credits are there. Tesla is sucking money from Big Auto. Deal with it.