Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

China played the long game with Trump and are coming out of it practically untouched. They waited him out for 3 and a half years.....they'll be patient and let Trump sour any other relations he can and then use that as leverage with a new incoming president.

Agreed, but doesn't mean the uncertainty won't hit the market first. Or, even, they may intentionally wobble with their response, to weaken our market and to have a stronger position against Biden.

People in the know *understand that he lacks teeth for a lot of things, but the market is far from rational.

*clarified the sentence.

 

[Queeg500]

Interesting excerpt from this book:

One example within the book deals with separating noise and signal (meaning) within investing. Let’s say you have a dentist that can invest with a 15% average annual return with 10% annual volatility. For reference, the S&P 500 index has a ~10% average annual return and ~14% average annual volatility. The dentist has good thing going, with the portfolio doubling in value every 5 years on average.

An unexpected factor in his success is the frequency upon which he looks at his portfolio balance. Here’s a chart from the book showing the probability of a positive change in value based on how often the portfolio is checked.

If he were to check his portfolio every minute, he would only see a positive return 50.17% of the time. That is basically indiscernible from a coin flip. The problem is loss aversion.

Being emotional, he feels a pang with every loss, as it shows in red on his screen. He feels some pleasure when the performance is positive, but not in equivalent amount as the pain experienced when the performance is negative.

At the end of every day the dentist will be emotionally drained. A minute-by-minute examination of his performance means that each day (assuming eight hours per day) he will have 241 pleasurable minutes against 239 unpleasurable ones. These amount to 60,688 and 60,271, respectively, per year. Now realize that if the unpleasurable minute is worse in reverse pleasure than the pleasurable minute is in pleasure terms, then the dentist incurs a large deficit when examining his performance at a high frequency.

Again, this doesn’t go away even if you know about the phenomenon:

Regardless of what people claim, a negative pang is not offset by a positive one (some psychologists estimate the negative effect for an average loss to be up to 2.5 the magnitude of a positive one); it will lead to an emotional deficit.

Now, if he were to check that same portfolio only when his monthly statement arrives, he would see a positive return 67% of the time (2 out of 3). Finally, if he has the patience to check only once a year, she would see a positive return 93% of the time. The time scale matters.

Thought i'd share this with TMC......

OK, I have no money left to buy (I'm all in $TSLA), and I have no intention on selling (learned I'm a crap "trader" and decided I just need to HODL).

So why can't I stop reading this forum, and checking the SP? I'm addicted to both!

(Great post btw, @BlackS , it's got me thinking)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It's inexcusable to provide a factory prepped car for an influencer's You Tube review in that condition. It seems that QC and Communications are still Tesla's Kryptonite. Fortunately, demand comes gift wrapped in a lead lined box.

Yeah the point of my post was not to say it is excusable. I'm merely pointing out that it doesn't matter right now in the competitive landscape. There's no other real competition.

Look at it this way though.....at least Tesla loaned out a car that sets real expectation instead of Porsche who claimed their quality bar was much higher...only for the Taycan to come out and have the same, if not worst, panel gaps and misalignment than they criticized Tesla for

 

[SO16]

Well, first I don't know why all these reviewers keep bashing the key card. Consumer Reports also complained. They both grudgingly acknowledge that most people will use their phone, yet they don't focus on that. Brownlee apparently doesn't realize that after you've unlocked the car from the outside, you don't need to do anything else with the key card or phone to drive it - as long as you do it within 30 seconds. So his complaint that you need to put the key card on the center console isn't really appropriate for every day use. Then, his complaint that the key card flies off as you drive doesn't make sense at all as there's no reason to leave the key card there - once the car has read it, you can remove it and put it back in your purse or wallet. As an early Model 3 owner my biggest complaint here is that the phone and car don't always connect to each other as I walk up and so I'm standing there tugging on the handle and the door doesn't open. Half the time I reach into my pocket to get my phone it does connect, other times I have to wake my phone up (iPhone X, btw). I guess I don't have to actually open the app, but there's nothing more annoying than a convenience feature that isn't convenient.

So, the car he's driving was lent to him by Tesla for the review (as he says and it has Tesla OEM plates). Yet it still has obvious fit and finish issues like a very loose sun visor, large panel gaps, and a loose trim piece:
View attachment 569507 View attachment 569508 View attachment 569509

I appreciate what Brownlee says about the relative importance of such things, it is more than disappointing. When I talk with my fellow Tesla owners and Teslanaires about ordering a Model Y, we literally talk about waiting until Tesla gets its manufacturing act together. My early Model 3 (VIN under 2K) had a really bad panel alignment, very annoying wind noise at 50 mph, and a rear defroster where some of the lines didn't defrost. The Tesla Service Center was great and fixed all three, but 2 of those should never have passed QA. Anyway, we want to trade up to a Model Y and as a big Tesla fan as I am, am literally waiting. I can't be alone in this - and wonder if this is somehow hurting Tesla demand right now, hence the recent price cut ($2k, btw since FSD went up $1k at the same time).

If those delivery issues could not be fixed, I could understand waiting. But since they can be fixed, I’d order it now. My Model S had an issue that was quickly resolved by service. Glad I didn’t wait for the “perfect“ car to be delivered. Now it’s just the “perfect“ car after the delivery issue was resolved. Good enough for me.

But I do agree that it is annoying such glaring issues do get sent to the customer. There’s no question it sours the delivery Experience a bit.

 

[Mo City]

Not if he pisses off China.

Again.

Republicans won't allow Trump to sabotage the country post-election. Trump doesn't give a care what happens after he's gone but they do.

You also underestimate China. They won't be baited by 60 days of rhetorical excess knowing he's out the door shortly. The first thing Biden's team will do post-election is reach out to Europe and China to remove Trump's hands from the steering wheel.

When Obama beat McCain, [EDIT: for all practical purposes] he became president on Nov 5th, 2008 even though he wasn't inaugurated until 2 1/2 months later.

 

[LN1_Casey]

https://twitter.com/Teslarati/status/1287810555655475204

Teslarati has an article about a Canadian mine company for nickle. They titled it as answering Overlord musk's call, but the article doesn't seem to have any direct indication as such. Simply a sentence that references EVs.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'll take the first CT off the line.

I will fight you for it.

 

[Tim S]

Does the house change immediately after the election then? Not at the same time as Biden being inaugurated??

Democrats currently control the House of Representatives. That won't change.
Republicans currently control the Senate and the White House. Both might change.

The election is in November, but all of the changes will take place in January.

 

[ggr]

I know several people who got Signature Model S's, They loved their cars, but Tesla essentially reworked every one of them multiple times. Almost all have traded them in for newer models with things like folding mirrors and EAP.

Not I. 8 years old in a couple of weeks. I took it out for a lovely drive in the hills yesterday. Also I wouldn't say "reworked"; yes, the door handles went through multiple iterations in the first few months, and there was a battery connector failure a year or two in, but nothing major for the 29th car off the line.

 

[vikings123]

This is not meant to be a dismissive comment of your worries or a way of saying Tesla shouldn't improve QC.........but for the vast majority of the casual consumer or those coming from Mercedes/BMW/etc.....I'd say feel free to go with another option for a EV.....oh wait......you're only options are to pay drastically higher prices and/or get sh*t range.....and you still have no network to charge.

Quality Control is not a Tesla specific issue and lots of brands have issues(hellow Taycan anyone? Panel gaps and misalignment galore). But even if it was a Tesla specific issue, Tesla has years to improve it before competition even comes close to their price and range...if ever.

All I'm saying is for a company that prides itself on continuous improvement and innovation this is one aspect of their experience I'd like to see them improve. It is so easy for the casual Tesla buyer to confuse these fit issues with all the FUD that goes around in the media and think that these "fit" issues could potentially be mechanical issues too. I have educated so many of them in the past few months and converted a few into buyers so I know this is a real issue.

 

[vikings123]

For what it’s worth Musk saw and retweeted Mkbhd’s video review

You are assuming Elon watched the video before tweeting.

 

[smorgasbord]

I agree this is not a good look. Tesla needs to work on customer service and fit issues, hopefully they already have plans in place. We can give them a pass for Q1/Q2 because I can imagine it was rough to ramp down and ramp up and still be able to produce so many cars.

Also for the casual person who is interested in buying a Tesla these fit issues can be a huge turnoff. I love the simplistic interior of the Tesla but for a lot of people coming from the Mercs and BMWs they feel like the interior is not very premium. I don't necessarily agree with that assessment because to me once you get the Tesla experience everything else seems too clunky. But then again once you add fit and cosmetic issues they just want to walk away. Plus they hear all these FUD news online.

I had like to see them poach someone from one of their 'competitors' and have that person focus on QC and customer service. I have no doubt they are thinking about this but really need to execute now.

Has Tesla solved the problem for current Model 3s?

One note is that clean, smooth design accentuates the need for high quality fit and finish. As an amateur woodworker, I can tell you that the classic designs were made with two things in mind: wood movement due to moisture changes affecting how components fit and trim details that hide inaccuracies in construction. Whether frame and panels or multi-part moldings, the idea was to hide manufacturing or environmentally cause inaccuracies.

Use of plywood and veneer-covered MDF all but eliminated wood movement while automated tooling has made high accuracy in construction possible. That enabled Bahaus, Scandanavian, Modern, and Post-Modern design, etc. Tesla has taken that aesthetic to the automobile, which is great, and I love it, but it does demand an even higher quality construction fit and finish when your interior dash is not made from many small individual pieces with overlapping moldings.

That said, not tightening the sun visor is almost as unacceptable as not noticing it in normal QA. At least we can summize Tesla doesn't "juice" their review units like many manufacturer's do (which is why CR buys their cars anonymously).

 

[Vad42]

Same. My early Performance 3 had a few warts but the car is so amazing that I'm glad I didn't wait. Panel gaps shouldn't be a thing but I don't really give a F. I do have some wind noise that I could mess with with some hacks people figured out but it's not bad enough that I have bothered.


That nearly happened to my in my Highlander. It had the fob type you could leave in your pocket or whatever. It's supposed to shut the car off if you leave proximity but for some reason it did not. Had I turned the car off I would have been stuck.

In the case of that guy, why didn't he just use his phone to connect to the car? Cell service is not required for Bluetooth.

You do for S. With S, the app talks to the mothership through wifi/Cellular, and mothership opens/starts car for you. I wish they add the bluetooth direct support to S, abut AFAIK, they haven't yet. Only 3 +Y have this feature from get-go.

 

[Krugerrand]

I appreciate what you're trying to say, but the truth is that the key card nitpick is, to me, a fairly reliable indication that the reviewer has not used the vehicle enough on a daily routine basis to mimick the way most people use their cars. It makes the review seem like a test drive that was recorded, not a true report. I can report that in daily use the real problem is not the key card, it's that the BTLE connection is not reliable, at least with some phones. But, I've not seen a single review that discusses this.

I’ve had the tooth issue, but it’s actually become less and less over time. It’s so infrequent now that when it does happen, I’m momentarily stunned. It takes a second for me to remember, ‘Oh, it’s the effin Bluetooth!’

I also realized that I should approach my car butt first if my phone is in my back pocket. That way when I reach the car it will be unlocked by the time I touch the handle. If I walk front first with phone in my back pocket, I know there’s a good chance there will be a second or two of delay.

Now that might seem inconvenient, but walking backwards works your muscles differently and so it’s an opportunity for some variety in one’s daily activities. And like diversity, variety is good.

 

[Tim S]

When Obama beat McCain, he became president on Nov 5th, 2008 even though he wasn't inaugurated until 2 1/2 months later.

This is incorrect. Obama became president Jan 20, 2009.

Edit: I see now that @Mo City did not mean that literally and edited his post. Thanks. I thought it might be confusing for non-Americans. To clarify, if Biden wins on Nov 3rd he will become president Jan 20, 2021. Mo City's point is that Trump would be a lame duck beginning Nov 4th and therefore have no power.

 

[Mo City]

This is incorrect. Obama became president Jan 20, 2009.

You completely missed the point I was making about post-election Trump. Oh well.

Will edit the post.

 

[Vad42]

He had a 2017 Model S. No Bluetooth LE support.

Are implying that recent S have it? When was it added? I have 2019 S Raven, and I didn't think I had that feature...

 

[SpaceCash]

Come on @SpaceCash you know you want to say it..."She's Bullish.........

The honest truth is I'm spoiled now and don't really get that *HIT* any more unless I'm up a Hundred K for the day...

 

[UnknownSoldier]

TSLA is one of those stocks which needs a warning sign in front: "You must be this tall to ride this ride."

 

[UkNorthampton]

It's not my country to criticise - but Police being sponsored by oil companies seems bad. I hope it's not the same in the UK, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Sooner oil collapses, the healthier everything will be. Report: Oil and gas companies have extensive ties to police groups