Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

He actually kinda got run out of this thread...

No, he was criticized, which he was too much of a precious snowflake to tolerate. He was criticized because all he ever posted was "TSLA is going to the moon!!" or "It's going down!!!" with no reasoning whatsoever. Plus he was wrong at least 90% of the time.

Lots of claims of vast sums of money backed up by nothing but ego. What was there to like?

 

[Mo City]

Personally I’m kind of retired but I still got most my money in TSLA. I have just being selling shares as needed in order to live. That’s my risk tolerance and I’m able to live with that. There’s no other place I wish to put my money.

I am hopefully within a year or so from jumping on the exact same train.

 

[dakh]

My final day at work will be Wednesday. Retirement itself evokes strong emotion. Now is the time for each of us to bring all the reason we can muster and make sound choices.

Congratulations on "graduating"!

 

[BornToFly]

Why do you need to sell 1/3 of it in the first place? Making some huge purchase?

I actually don't need any of it NOW. I can sell covered calls using just half my shares with 3500 SP for Jan 2022 and have more money per month than I'm earning now. BUT, if the stock tanks between now and Jan 2022, then I can't sell them again for the following year, and the stock won't be worth enough to sell at that point. That is why I feel the need to lock in gains and put some money in real estate so I have reliable income for the rest of my life (selling 1/3 of my shares now puts me in that position). I'm literally all in on TSLA right now and have been for years. So while I'm obviously pretty confident that TSLA will rise over time, I'm having trouble with the thought of retiring while owing only one stock that could go down for one reason or another and leave me with no source of income.

P.S. - The other strategy is to sell those covered calls, and not sell any shares. I can actually make the money last three years. It would just be really hard to watch the SP tank for an extended period of time, with no job, and hope that it rebounds in 3 years to sell calls again. I think most of us would agree that the probability of the SP being no lower than it is today in three years is over 95% (maybe 99%). But remember, I have magical powers - What ever I say or do brings about the opposite move of what I'm expecting in the SP....

 

[Stretch2727]

I’m astonished at my lack of TSLA emotional IQ. I’ve damn sure had time to develop it. It is not easy to put aside emotion when making trading decisions.

My final day at work will be Wednesday. Retirement itself evokes strong emotion. Now is the time for each of us to bring all the reason we can muster and make sound choices.

Is it possible to develop a stepped strategy? Can you devise a strategy that will secure your retirement and still leave opportunity for future growth?

All the best

You may want to read "The Bucket Plan". Not very sophisticated but the basic idea is to have 18-24 months expenses in something safe and continue to invest the rest like nothing changed. If you have a pension and/or social security the 18-24 months should include this so you do not do not pull to much from your investments. The 18-24 months is basically a buffer for the market ups and downs. Remember you may live another 30+ years. This is my general plan.

I also plan to use the ARK ETF's to diversify my TSLA investments somewhat at some point. Probably not totally logical but lowers the risk with a mix of stocks but still having a good percentage in TSLA.

I still have 3-4 years to retirement and still am fully invested.

 

[Thekiwi]

I hope so, too. I like @SpaceCash posts, and I'm especially appreciative of his naked short comment from a few days ago that set off a very enlightening (at least for me) discussion. I spent quite a bit of time looking into naked short selling this past weekend, and I would encourage anyone who is in the stock/bond markets to familiarize themselves with the topic.

Please come back, @SpaceCash

Was surprised not to see SpaceCash with his obligatory "bullish AF" today - Apparently he has been banned by moderators from posting? not sure why.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I need some hand holding. After Q2 earnings I said I wouldn't sell anything until after S&P500 inclusion. Now we also have the split at the end of the month. I need to retire at the end of the year. I am willing to sell 1/3 of my shares to do it. I could sell now and do ok, but if we go to 2500 or 3000 things get really good. I'm freaking out a little because if it goes back down before I sell, then I'm screwed. My anxiety level is at a 10. There is no way the SP is lower than this in a month... right?!? Excuse me while I go breathe in a brown paper bag....

I lightened up to the tune of 1/3 of my holdings this morning (covered some 8/21 short puts). Not because I don't think it's going up more, but because I've reached all my reasonable goals so having everything at risk seems just plain stupid.

Not ensuring your retirement due to greed seems like a bad idea. We're in a volatile time and the truth is that the market could quite possibly crash at any time. Seems obvious what to do.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I actually don't need any of it NOW. I can sell covered calls using just half my shares with 3500 SP for Jan 2022 and have more money per month than I'm earning now. BUT, if the stock tanks between now and Jan 2022, then I can't sell them again for the following year, and the stock won't be worth enough to sell at that point. That is why I feel the need to lock in gains and put some money in real estate so I have reliable income for the rest of my life (selling 1/3 of my shares now puts me in that position). I'm literally all in on TSLA right now and have been for years. So while I'm obviously pretty confident that TSLA will rise over time, I'm having trouble with the thought of retiring while owing only one stock that could go down for one reason or another and leave me with no source of income.

P.S. - The other strategy is to sell those covered calls, and not sell any shares. I can actually make the money last three years. It would just be really hard to watch the SP tank for an extended period of time, with no job, and hope that it rebounds in 3 years to sell calls again. I think most of us would agree that the probability of the SP being no lower than it is today in three years is over 95% (maybe 99%). But remember, I have magical powers - What ever I say or do brings about the opposite move of what I'm expecting in the SP....

So how much extra would it cost to buy PUTS as some SP insurance for those years?

Also, have you considered hiring the services of a professional options trader? A solid strategy that gives you peace of mind is literally worth its weight in nickel.

Good luck, and congrats on retirement.

Cheers!

 

[Thekiwi]

All these TV commentators keep saying TSLA SP is overvalued or ridiculous, .... Even at current SP, TSLA is actually cheap compared to other high growth stocks. Look at the P/S (Price to Sale) ratio below:
TSLA 12x (after the big run up) --- Full vertical integration + FD + Solar + Energy
NIO 14x --- Does not own factories, and barely pass critical phase
TDOC 21x --- Virtual healthcare services
CRWD 39x --- Cloud security, lower entry point area
SHOP 57x --- Cloud based e-commerce platform

For me, Tesla has more obvious trajectory growth path in the next 5 years at least. Just a few examples to show TSLA is still pretty "cheap"

Price to Sales ratio is fairly meaningless without knowing the gross margin on a particular company, and its revenue growth rate and margin growth rate.

A company with 70% gross margins growing revenue at 100%, and growing margins, should obviously have a far higher price to sales ratio than a company with 7% gross margins growing revenue at 10% and zero/negative growth in margins.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I’m astonished at my lack of TSLA emotional IQ. I’ve damn sure had time to develop it. It is not easy to put aside emotion when making trading decisions.

My final day at work will be Wednesday. Retirement itself evokes strong emotion. Now is the time for each of us to bring all the reason we can muster and make sound choices.

Is it possible to develop a stepped strategy? Can you devise a strategy that will secure your retirement and still leave opportunity for future growth?

All the best

Keep everything in TSLA and sell every month to pay for whatever you spent

Maximum growth

 

[dakh]

Keep everything in TSLA and sell every month to pay for whatever you spent

Maximum growth

It exposes you to an extremely narrow/lopsided risk/reward profile. It's like buying one house in one specific hood/city/country that you don't even live in, and saying you've invested in real estate with max growth. Sure it might work out like you expect, or it might be that the levy gets obliterated or some idiots try to weld a door on a warehouse with explosives nearby.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I actually don't need any of it NOW. I can sell covered calls using just half my shares with 3500 SP for Jan 2022 and have more money per month than I'm earning now. BUT, if the stock tanks between now and Jan 2022, then I can't sell them again for the following year, and the stock won't be worth enough to sell at that point. That is why I feel the need to lock in gains and put some money in real estate so I have reliable income for the rest of my life (selling 1/3 of my shares now puts me in that position). I'm literally all in on TSLA right now and have been for years. So while I'm obviously pretty confident that TSLA will rise over time, I'm having trouble with the thought of retiring while owing only one stock that could go down for one reason or another and leave me with no source of income.

P.S. - The other strategy is to sell those covered calls, and not sell any shares. I can actually make the money last three years. It would just be really hard to watch the SP tank for an extended period of time, with no job, and hope that it rebounds in 3 years to sell calls again. I think most of us would agree that the probability of the SP being no lower than it is today in three years is over 95% (maybe 99%). But remember, I have magical powers - What ever I say or do brings about the opposite move of what I'm expecting in the SP....

What ever I say or do brings about the opposite move of what I'm expecting in the SP.... Based on this...please sell everything so $TSLA can go to $3000

Just remember you would not be in this position if you were not all in on TSLA for years. In fact, you should be more bullish now then you were back then.

 

[BornToFly]

So how much extra would it cost to buy PUTS as some SP insurance for those years?

Also, have you considered hiring the services of a professional options trader? A solid strategy that gives you peace of mind is literally worth its weight in nickel.

Good luck, and congrats on retirement.

Cheers!

10 Puts (for only 1,000 shares) with SP 1800 for September 2021 are $500k. That would eat the profit of 20 CC with 3500 SP and Jan 22 Exp.

 

[juanmedina]

So how much extra would it cost to buy PUTS as some SP insurance for those years?

Also, have you considered hiring the services of a professional options trader? A solid strategy that gives you peace of mind is literally worth its weight in nickel.

Good luck, and congrats on retirement.

Cheers!

@rdalcanto if you end up reaching out to a professional options trader about an options strategy for retirement, please let us know what they say

 

[Singuy]

Wtf this just blew my mind.

Stock price is too high tweeted at 8:11 am pst on 5/1. Stock split announced on 8/11 for 5:1. He can't be serious!?!?

 

[BornToFly]

I think with the stock split coming, and Berlin and Austin next year, I just can't imagine the market cap being lower 15 months from now than it is today! I think I'm going to wait until 2,000/share, and then place a 10% trailing stop loss on 1/3 of my shares. Then sell covered calls for 3500 SP for Jan 22 for half my shares, and keep the other 1/6 completely liquid and in no risk of being sold or called away. Crazy?

 

[Stretch2727]

GM Shares Soar on Electric-Vehicle Spin-Off Speculation

This to me is just financial engineering. What is there to spin off? They don't even make most of the key components for the Bolt.

The truth is if GM had fully dedicated to an electrification plan when the Model S first came out they would be realizing the benefits now. They sat on their hands for too long.

 

[Bobfitz1]

I need some hand holding. After Q2 earnings I said I wouldn't sell anything until after S&P500 inclusion. Now we also have the split at the end of the month. I need to retire at the end of the year. I am willing to sell 1/3 of my shares to do it. I could sell now and do ok, but if we go to 2500 or 3000 things get really good. I'm freaking out a little because if it goes back down before I sell, then I'm screwed. My anxiety level is at a 10. There is no way the SP is lower than this in a month... right?!? Excuse me while I go breathe in a brown paper bag....

Earlier this year I sold 5% of my shares to fund a Model Y. If SP goes to 2500 I'll sell another 5% and put those proceeds in with my other retirement income investments. I expect SP to reach 5K by 2024 or earlier. Missing out on the additional value increase for the few shares I've sold is not going to bother me when 5K is reached, because being a tad richer in 2025 isn't going to make a difference in what I can do then when I'm already more secure than I ever imagined I could be. If I want to make up for that last bit of NAV, all I need do is wait another year until TSLA hits 6K.
It's not foolish to enjoy some of your profits while still healthy, when you have 2/3 of your shares going higher in the years to come.

 

[woodisgood]

Wtf this just blew my mind.

Stock price is too high tweeted at 8:11 am pst on 5/1. Stock split announced on 8/11 for 5:1. He can't be serious!?!?

Preplanned in May or scheduled in retrospect to match tweet or coincidence? People will see what they want to.

 

[FrankSG]

Didn't we already concluded that June sales were strong because sales were pulled into that month from May due to a price drops? July sales were not bad at all if they are at a production rate of 12k/month.

I think sales were a little low simply because production was a little low.

And I think production was a little low due to a stress test and ramp up to 5k/week.