Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Intl Professor]

I'm still around. Still have my stock. Still have my car. Just nothing much to add.

Dan

I do, something idiotic.

Whoopee!

 

[Prunesquallor]

... Just nothing much to add.

Dan

Phht. That never stops me from posting.
Especially like now during my post-ATH margarita celebration.

 

[BornToFly]

I need some hand holding. After Q2 earnings I said I wouldn't sell anything until after S&P500 inclusion. Now we also have the split at the end of the month. I need to retire at the end of the year. I am willing to sell 1/3 of my shares to do it. I could sell now and do ok, but if we go to 2500 or 3000 things get really good. I'm freaking out a little because if it goes back down before I sell, then I'm screwed. My anxiety level is at a 10. There is no way the SP is lower than this in a month... right?!? Excuse me while I go breathe in a brown paper bag....

 

[Beezer_9]

Think you have been reading too many of Elon's cryptic tweets and applying it to this clown

So if I read this correctly we will gain 330 points tomorrow?

 

[Jack6591]

I need some hand holding. After Q2 earnings I said I wouldn't sell anything until after S&P500 inclusion. Now we also have the split at the end of the month. I need to retire at the end of the year. I am willing to sell 1/3 of my shares to do it. I could sell now and do ok, but if we go to 2500 or 3000 things get really good. I'm freaking out a little because if it goes back down before I sell, then I'm screwed. My anxiety level is at a 10. There is no way the SP is lower than this in a month... right?!? Excuse me while I go breathe in a brown paper bag....

I’m astonished at my lack of TSLA emotional IQ. I’ve damn sure had time to develop it. It is not easy to put aside emotion when making trading decisions.

My final day at work will be Wednesday. Retirement itself evokes strong emotion. Now is the time for each of us to bring all the reason we can muster and make sound choices.

Is it possible to develop a stepped strategy? Can you devise a strategy that will secure your retirement and still leave opportunity for future growth?

All the best

 

[M|S|M MYP]

View attachment 577595

So if I read this correctly we will gain 330 points tomorrow?

330...33 + 0....66....3x3 + 0......many ways to interpret those numbers....ill settle for 33 to set the bar low.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I’m astonished at my lack of TSLA emotional IQ. I’ve damn sure had time to develop it. It is not easy to put aside emotion when making trading decisions.

My final day at work will be Wednesday. Retirement itself evokes strong emotion. Now is the time for each of us to bring all the reason we can muster and make sound choices.

Is it possible to develop a stepped strategy? Can you devise a strategy that will secure your retirement and still leave opportunity for future growth?

All the best

Congrats! I am sure it is well deserved. Maybe you can do some side projects installing powerwalls for TMC members in the Los Angeles County?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I need some hand holding. After Q2 earnings I said I wouldn't sell anything until after S&P500 inclusion. Now we also have the split at the end of the month. I need to retire at the end of the year. I am willing to sell 1/3 of my shares to do it. I could sell now and do ok, but if we go to 2500 or 3000 things get really good. I'm freaking out a little because if it goes back down before I sell, then I'm screwed. My anxiety level is at a 10. There is no way the SP is lower than this in a month... right?!? Excuse me while I go breathe in a brown paper bag....

If anything...i wouldn't touch any shares until after battery day...heck...i would even wait for Q3 numbers, (however, we all know what happened after Q2). Hard to say with the election coming up and still uncertainty in the world. Does is have to be 1/3? why not do 1/5?

 

[ammulder]

I need to retire at the end of the year. I am willing to sell 1/3 of my shares to do it. I could sell now and do ok, but if we go to 2500 or 3000 things get really good. I'm freaking out a little because if it goes back down before I sell, then I'm screwed. My anxiety level is at a 10.

Sell 1/10? 1/20? Enough so that you can comfortably start your retirement and wait out the stock price you're looking for? Or 1/6 to cover half your retirement and wait to see if you can improve on the rest?

I don't see a reason the (split-adjusted) price should be lower than the current price at the end of the year, but I've been surprised before. If you don't have a Plan B then it seems like it would make some sense to at least partially lock in your progress, if for no other reason than to dial your stress back down. I hear it's supposed to be a happy time.

 

[MC3OZ]

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1295266779485343744

Here is how the current list looks like for upcoming Tesla events. Let me know what else to add.

I don't 100% agree with the dates of Troy's list but his events are things that will happen sooner or later, close enough to the dates he proposes.

For the new wiring system for Model Y, I wonder if we will see that first in Berlin.

More generally we might see manufacturing improvements that need lots of Tesla Grohmann involvement happen first in Berlin. Or it may simply be the newest factory has the highest level of innovation.

 

[dl003]

Sounds like you have good friends. My friends just think I’m lucky. That’s how they rationalize it to themselves. I always tell them back that maybe I’m just good at seeing market trends and I saw Tesla’s future product roadmap and assigned a PE ratio to that.

The thing is Tesla didn't go from $15 to $1800 in a day. It took 7 years and countless peaks and troughs. Everyday you wake up, you have the opportunity to sell. Yet, everyday you make the decision to hold. You didn't budge at 50%, 100%, 200%, or even 500% gain. Nor did you run during production hell and COVID lock-down. That means you've been lucky 250 days a year for 7 years straight; the decision you've made everyday has led you to this point. Luck is a one time thing. What you have is conviction. If your friends don't understand that, you need smarter friends. Not necessarily nicer, just smarter. Like me. Real friends don't take your hard work away from you.

 

[ggr]

At E*TRADE you don't need a margin account to participate in their FPL, Fully Paid Lending, program. But in the last three months I think I made all of about 10 cents from a few TSLA shares being lent for a couple days.

Indeed, you need to NOT have a margin account. If you're on margin, you already gave them the right to lend your shares without paying you.

 

[Rammstein]

I need some hand holding. After Q2 earnings I said I wouldn't sell anything until after S&P500 inclusion. Now we also have the split at the end of the month. I need to retire at the end of the year. I am willing to sell 1/3 of my shares to do it. I could sell now and do ok, but if we go to 2500 or 3000 things get really good. I'm freaking out a little because if it goes back down before I sell, then I'm screwed. My anxiety level is at a 10. There is no way the SP is lower than this in a month... right?!? Excuse me while I go breathe in a brown paper bag....

Personally I’m kind of retired but I still got most my money in TSLA. I have just being selling shares as needed in order to live. That’s my risk tolerance and I’m able to live with that. There’s no other place I wish to put my money.

 

[obie_fl]

If anything...i wouldn't touch any shares until after battery day...heck...i would even wait for Q3 numbers, (however, we all know what happened after Q2). Hard to say with the election coming up and still uncertainty in the world. Does is have to be 1/3? why not do 1/5?

I'll take the opposing view if your anxiety level is at 10 and you are only a few months away from retiring by all means lock in some profit and your retirement date.

I plan on retiring next year and I do worry about a market collapse. I'm fortunate in that TSLA is only about a quarter of my net worth. I'm not worried about my TSLA holdings, it's the other 3/4's of my net worth that gives me pause sometimes.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Aug 17, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Notches Another New ATH"

Traded: $36,131,789,654.41 ($36.13 B)
Volume: 20,328,304
VWAP: $1,777.41

Closing SP / VWAP: 103.35%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $342.094B / $189.451B = 180.57%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $282.01B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $174.12B
Nota Bene: Mkt Cap on pace to unlock CEO comp. 3rd tranche Sep 09, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 49.0% (49th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 45.7% (47th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.89% of Short Volume (57th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "Late-day selling narrowly averts a double-century gain for TSLA"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Rammstein]

The thing is Tesla didn't go from $15 to $1800 in a day. It took 7 years and countless peaks and troughs. Everyday you wake up, you have the opportunity to sell. Yet, everyday you make the decision to hold. You didn't budge at 50%, 100%, 200%, or even 500% gain. Nor did you run during production hell and COVID lock-down. That means you've been lucky 250 days a year for 7 years straight; the decision you've made everyday has led you to this point. Luck is a one time thing. What you have is conviction. If your friends don't understand that, you need smarter friends. Not necessarily nicer, just smarter. Like me. Real friends don't take your hard work away from you.

I think they know I had conviction but I think they look at it as a brainwashed cult member. Anyways, I tried explaining to them the investment opportunity of a lifetime and just got frustrated and gave up. They wouldn’t watch most of the videos I sent them from YouTube. Oh well their loss!

Weird thing is I think they are smart. I just think the media has so much control over public opinion. They would just hear the FUD all day and think I’m crazy. These guys are highly educated and 2 of them actually do wealth management for a living. Those guys won’t be getting any of my business and I think they know it.

 

[dl003]

I need some hand holding. After Q2 earnings I said I wouldn't sell anything until after S&P500 inclusion. Now we also have the split at the end of the month. I need to retire at the end of the year. I am willing to sell 1/3 of my shares to do it. I could sell now and do ok, but if we go to 2500 or 3000 things get really good. I'm freaking out a little because if it goes back down before I sell, then I'm screwed. My anxiety level is at a 10. There is no way the SP is lower than this in a month... right?!? Excuse me while I go breathe in a brown paper bag....

Why do you need to sell 1/3 of it in the first place? Making some huge purchase?

 

[adiggs]

I need some hand holding. After Q2 earnings I said I wouldn't sell anything until after S&P500 inclusion. Now we also have the split at the end of the month. I need to retire at the end of the year. I am willing to sell 1/3 of my shares to do it. I could sell now and do ok, but if we go to 2500 or 3000 things get really good. I'm freaking out a little because if it goes back down before I sell, then I'm screwed. My anxiety level is at a 10. There is no way the SP is lower than this in a month... right?!? Excuse me while I go breathe in a brown paper bag....

Personally, any investing activity that cranks my anxiety level to 10 is sort of a hot stove - I stop doing that and don't do that again (whatever it is).

In your case, that sounds like now is a good time to sell some of the TSLA shares. The only thing I'm confident of is that whenever you sell, there will be a future price that is higher than it is right now. It might be that in a month the price is higher. It's also possible that all the good news we anticipate over the next month is all priced in, so between macro economic news plus all the good Tesla news being priced in, that TSLA is down from here.

(I expect even more up from here, but I'm bad at picking direction, magnitude, and timing - you get what you deserve if you're following me )


And congrats on imminent retirement! This is a time for celebration - not for anxiety cranked to 10.

 

[agastya]

There will come a time when it makes sense to sell the shares of TSLA we now own
View attachment 577568
(and personally, I am thinking not in my lifetime. It is the best of both worlds, investing in good and getting a nice return)

Jesus, you think of this but just do one line? FTFY

Hold your shares, hold your shares. Sons of TMC, of TSLA, my brothers.
I see in your eyes the same greed that would take the heart of me.
A day may come when the courage of men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of investing.
But it is not this day.
An hour of woes and shattered bulls, when the age of men comes crashing down, but it is not this day.
This day we HODL!
By all that you hold dear on this good Earth, I bid you HODL, Men of TSLA!

 

[dakh]

I need some hand holding. After Q2 earnings I said I wouldn't sell anything until after S&P500 inclusion. Now we also have the split at the end of the month. I need to retire at the end of the year. I am willing to sell 1/3 of my shares to do it. I could sell now and do ok, but if we go to 2500 or 3000 things get really good. I'm freaking out a little because if it goes back down before I sell, then I'm screwed. My anxiety level is at a 10. There is no way the SP is lower than this in a month... right?!? Excuse me while I go breathe in a brown paper bag....

Not that I'm in a position to give any advice, but just an idea/example. What works for me is, I can keep my cool using 2 strategies:

1. Make a plan and stick to it until the stock does something that's not accounted for in your plan. Like sell 20% of what you might want to sell now and sit on the rest. If the stock keep going up, make a plan to sell another 20% for say every $100 of upward movement. Buy back 10% on every $100 down. Something like that or whatever looks reasonable for you.
2. Have a thesis that you can validate against reality over time that drives your decisions. It's Ok to change your thesis if you gain better intel/insights and adjust your holdings accordingly. But it's not Ok to take impulse emotional actions that aren't supported by your investment thesis.