Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

GM Shares Soar on Electric-Vehicle Spin-Off Speculation

This to me is just financial engineering. What is there to spin off? They don't even make most of the key components for the Bolt.

The truth is if GM had fully dedicated to an electrification plan when the Model S first came out they would be realizing the benefits now. They sat on their hands for too long.

Well, no disagreement with about GM sitting on their hands for too long (and that is being too nice, they took action against EVs). And you are right that with the Bolt it is more-or-less an LG.

However, GM does have more than just the Bolt. They have their buzzword battery system (Ultium, right?). Alright, that's a joint venture, but why risk the core business of selling gasoline vehicles, right?

Anyway, my point is that there is more to GM's EV effort than the Bolt. Worth $20B? Could grow to $100B? Sure. And I might grow a third arm out of my back.

Its just fluff to try and move the stock price.

 

[FrankSG]

It's so obvious to me, I don't understand why others don't get it.

This is exactly what I was thinking in October / November last year. I would've never guessed the SP would reach nearly $2,000 this soon, but nonetheless it was SO obvious to me that EVs were the future, and that Tesla would be the market leader.

It was the most obvious thing ever to me.

 

[ggr]

Wtf this just blew my mind.

Stock price is too high tweeted at 8:11 am pst on 5/1. Stock split announced on 8/11 for 5:1. He can't be serious!?!?

Actually, I checked and the exact time according to Twitter was 8:15. Still...

 

[FrankSG]

I wonder how @BenPrice is doing? Haven't heard from him in a while.

Iirc, he had a ton of money (6 figures) riding on relatively short term call options before Q1 ER. Might've been $900 calls expiring 1 or 2 weeks after ER. I'm guessing that trade went south. It's around the same time he disappeared.

 

[Stretch2727]

Its just fluff to try and move the stock price.

I call it financial engineering. Yes Fluff.

 

[ggr]

And I might grow a third arm out of my back.

TROGDOR!

 

[Bet TSLA]

We hit the trifecta today. Highest daily low ever, highest daily high ever, highest close ever. What's not to like?

 

[Singuy]

Actually, I checked and the exact time according to Twitter was 8:15. Still...

You sure? This is according to my Twitter account.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Tesla's INSANE Giga Press (engineering genius)" | SMR

 

[Krugerrand]

I think they know I had conviction but I think they look at it as a brainwashed cult member. Anyways, I tried explaining to them the investment opportunity of a lifetime and just got frustrated and gave up. They wouldn’t watch most of the videos I sent them from YouTube. Oh well their loss!

Weird thing is I think they are smart. I just think the media has so much control over public opinion. They would just hear the FUD all day and think I’m crazy. These guys are highly educated and 2 of them actually do wealth management for a living. Those guys won’t be getting any of my business and I think they know it.

There’s different kinds of ‘smart’; book smart, street smart, emotional intelligence, common sense smart, money smart, worldly smart etc...

I don’t know what kind of smart they may be, but they aren’t critical thinking smart, nor apparently investment smart despite it being their profession.

Don’t spend another second of thought on it. Not everybody is suppose to be on the Tesla/TSLA journey.

 

[Krugerrand]

Jesus, you think of this but just do one line? FTFY

Hold your shares, hold your shares. Sons of TMC, of TSLA, my brothers.
I see in your eyes the same greed that would take the heart of me.
A day may come when the courage of men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of investing.
But it is not this day.
An hour of woes and shattered bulls, when the age of men comes crashing down, but it is not this day.
This day we HODL!
By all that you hold dear on this good Earth, I bid you HODL, Men of TSLA!

Dude, that’s poetry. Somebody show this guy the door.

 

[juanmedina]

I think many of use here have taken literal abuse from friends, family and colleagues on our $TSLA investment. For my part I always explained why it was such a great opportunity, while they just parroted back the FUD from the various websites.

They ain't laughing now though, and as I've said before, only one person ever took my advice and invested, her average buy-in was around $200.

It's so obvious to me, I don't understand why others don't get it.

I been telling all my coworkers to invest in Tesla for years. I started buying in the $180s and they just ignored or make fun of me specially when the SP went down from $360 to $180. All their negativity probably kept me from buying more.... oh well. The funny thing is that I work for an EV manufacturer. To this day as far as I know I am probably the only one that has Tesla shares other than some ex Tesla employees. My parents were the only ones that took my advice.

 

[Artful Dodger]

10 Puts (for only 1,000 shares) with SP 1800 for September 2021 are $500k. That would eat the profit of 20 CC with 3500 SP and Jan 22 Exp.

Right, now redo the calculation with the min. SP you'd be comfortable holding to during a plunge? That's where you set your strike price for the PUT. It's not a lotto ticket, its insurance (ie: the higher your deductible the lower your premium). Next, what is the max. no of shares you'd conceivably sell during the period in question? That's your true price for insurance. Maybe assigning hard numbers to the risk/reward will help you reevaluate your internal state, or at least inform your decision based on logic AND emotion.

Converserly, what's the min SP you'd be willing to sell at during the next 2 years? That's the SP for your covered calls, only selling contracts for the most shares you'd be willing to sell. Now, can you fund the PUT insurance with these CALLs?

Cheers!

 

[Sanny]

Also, have you considered hiring the services of a professional options trader? A solid strategy that gives you peace of mind is literally worth its weight in nickel.


Cheers!

Never thought about such option, sounds interesting. Is it realistic to hire someone, who will implement your strategy with a professional level of execution and will not front run your trades or do other stupid things?
Any idea where to find them and how much it cost (is it % or fix)?

 

[Krugerrand]

I actually don't need any of it NOW. I can sell covered calls using just half my shares with 3500 SP for Jan 2022 and have more money per month than I'm earning now. BUT, if the stock tanks between now and Jan 2022, then I can't sell them again for the following year, and the stock won't be worth enough to sell at that point. That is why I feel the need to lock in gains and put some money in real estate so I have reliable income for the rest of my life (selling 1/3 of my shares now puts me in that position). I'm literally all in on TSLA right now and have been for years. So while I'm obviously pretty confident that TSLA will rise over time, I'm having trouble with the thought of retiring while owing only one stock that could go down for one reason or another and leave me with no source of income.

P.S. - The other strategy is to sell those covered calls, and not sell any shares. I can actually make the money last three years. It would just be really hard to watch the SP tank for an extended period of time, with no job, and hope that it rebounds in 3 years to sell calls again. I think most of us would agree that the probability of the SP being no lower than it is today in three years is over 95% (maybe 99%). But remember, I have magical powers - What ever I say or do brings about the opposite move of what I'm expecting in the SP....

You’re too attached and focused on the money and timing. Yes, I know you need money to live and there’s some kind of deadline you’ve given yourself, but you’ve narrowed your vision too much and are missing the bigger picture.

There’s another option you haven’t considered yet. No, I don’t know what it is, I only know there’s one you’re missing because I know where your head is at. Been there, done that.

Relax. Quiet the emotional part. Be open to another way so it can come to you.

That’s all the froo-froo I’ve got for the day.

 

[scaesare]

Wtf this just blew my mind.

Stock price is too high tweeted at 8:11 am pst on 5/1. Stock split announced on 8/11 for 5:1. He can't be serious!?!?

4D chess indeed...

 

[Oveeus]

I need some hand holding. After Q2 earnings I said I wouldn't sell anything until after S&P500 inclusion. Now we also have the split at the end of the month. I need to retire at the end of the year. I am willing to sell 1/3 of my shares to do it. I could sell now and do ok, but if we go to 2500 or 3000 things get really good. I'm freaking out a little because if it goes back down before I sell, then I'm screwed. My anxiety level is at a 10. There is no way the SP is lower than this in a month... right?!? Excuse me while I go breathe in a brown paper bag....

Sell at the point where you can foresee and forget about it. Enjoy your earning.

I foresee TSLA to become a trillion dollar company. By that time, I'd sell my shares, maybe in a few steps to optimize the tax bill, but the idea is that I foresee it to become a trillion dollar company. It might very well become 3-5 trillion worth, but I would already make 60x my investment, double that... maybe get me a nicer vacation house or bigger boat, but having to wait for another few yrs for it to double again? Not worth the trouble. I'd already retire with all the toys I can imagine and live comfortably when it hits 1T. To be more affluent than that... yeah, it'd be nice, but totally unnecessary.

 

[dakh]

I been telling all my coworkers to invest in Tesla for years. I started buying in the $180s and they just ignored or make fun of me specially when the SP went down from $360 to $180. All their negativity probably kept me from buying more.... oh well. The funny thing is that I work for an EV manufacturer. To this day as far as I know I am probably the only one that has Tesla shares other than some ex Tesla employees. My parents were the only ones that took my advice.

I can only count 1 dude that I talked out of shorting TSLA. I failed in talking him out of going long on Royal Dutch Shell. That was about 9 months ago, so he lost about half. Better than ALL if he shorted TSLA... Nobody tried to talk me out of my own TSLA, I guess my level of conviction was pretty clear

I just realized that I'm exactly 10x on my combined account worth from this time of the year last year. And I'm not 100% in TSLA. But those LEAPS worked really well. Still hold a few that are between 20 and 35x up.

 

[GOVA]

Ironic world, ain't it? Ghosn is being witch hunted and Milton is pumping money and 'pimpin' his stock.

Truly hope the latter one is ending up in jail.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I don't think so. I think people believe the stock split was done for the S&P 500 inclusion moreso, so that's why we're re-rallying.

I don't think so. The biggest catalyst seems to be the stock split plus a bunch of other follow on catalysts. There is no other way to explain the 30% increase. The way this is all set up I'm struggling to find what will actually bring the SP down in the short term(3-6 months). Shorts are scared because of the S&P factor. Hedge funds seem to be front running the S&P inclusion. Traders are buying up because the technical indicators are very bullish. Longs are happy to hold on their shares.

I think there is going to even more buying pressure come Aug 31st when the actual stock split happens. I don't know how S&P committee operates or if they care about the stock price so pure speculation here: Given the run up and the numerous catalysts in play for TSLA what are the chances the committee decides to add TSLA this week instead of waiting for the split? I'd say they are pretty good.

Looks like folks don't agree. Well, I'd love to be wrong!