Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

well, the fact the stock went from $1700 to $1370$ after positive earning calls make me think the weak stock holders selling on the news will act again after battery day, S&P inclusion, positive Q3. However I agree the base of the company is stronger.

Lol, you understand that Short Interest (SI) went up during that period?

It's wasn't 'weak longs' doing the selling, it was 'stupid shorts'.

Cheers!

 

[Singuy]

I like TSLA's meteroic rise. It is definitely justified.

The weird thing is that ppl in a new social group is showing off their tsla gains left and right. While a person convinced many others to join him to daytrade tsla and aapl.

Meanwhile I am there pretending to be dumb.

At least I don't think this is a shoe shine boy moment yet. As the ones who acted are at least upper middle class to rich in status. This is probably the crossing the chasm moment.

3 coworkers have asked me if they should invest in Tesla. I said no to all of them. Everyone is looking for a quick cash grab. We know there will be a day TSLA will free fall. Cnbc will have a hr special inviting Gordon on to talk about BTC and tulips. I do not want to see them lose money as they are super weak longs who can't stomach any kind of red.

Until someone can show me they have the ability to actually understand the risk and the company at its basic levels, I am not recommending Tesla at current price levels and especially not during a run up like this.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

3 coworkers have asked me if they should invest in Tesla. I said no to all of them. Everyone is looking for a quick cash grab. We know there will be a day TSLA will free fall. Cnbc will have a hr special inviting Gordon on to talk about BTC and tulips. I do not want to see them lose money as they are super weak longs who can't stomach any kind of red.

Until someone can show me they have the ability to actually understand the risk and the company at its basic levels, I am not recommending Tesla at current price levels and especially not during a run up like this.

But...look on the bright side.....you can score 'cheaper shares' off them on a red day when they sell

 

[elasalle]

Did we cross 420B earlier today, showing 417B Market Cap right now

 

[Nocturnal]

Xpeng shares are live. Do you think they can copy Tesla's share gains too? lol

3 coworkers have asked me if they should invest in Tesla. I said no to all of them. Everyone is looking for a quick cash grab. We know there will be a day TSLA will free fall. Cnbc will have a hr special inviting Gordon on to talk about BTC and tulips. I do not want to see them lose money as they are super weak longs who can't stomach any kind of red.

Until someone can show me they have the ability to actually understand the risk and the company at its basic levels, I am not recommending Tesla at current price levels and especially not during a run up like this.

Gordon is an asset to us at this point. He is so laughably wrong that he discredits the other bears.

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - 2 hours ago: Tesla Center: new delivery location with impressive up to 300-car a day capacity coming to China - Electrek

 

[Singuy]

But...look on the bright side.....you can score 'cheaper shares' off them on a red day when they sell

When people are living paycheck to paycheck, the last thing I want is to see friends and co-workers lose money because I talked up a stock. Risk increase tremendously as TSLA hit all time highs daily. I have recommended Tesla at 200s with no takers.

I want to see people make money, not lose money. I talked up AMD when it was 14 dollars. People invest and then it cratered down to 9s and didn't get to 14 for months. I had to constantly calm their nerves. Only two out of 5 people held on and made some money.

 

[dl003]

Xpeng shares are live. Do you think they can copy Tesla's share gains too? lol

Gordon is an asset to us at this point. He is so laughably wrong that he discredits the other bears.

Soon enough we'll have TSLA Bear vs Gordo debates on Yahoo Finance.
XPEV price : sales is at least 11, vs TSLA 13. Risk adjusted it's extremely expensive. Oh man here I go again, comparing TSLA to Chinese EV startups.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Gooooo Xpeng!!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

When people are living paycheck to paycheck, the last thing I want is to see friends and co-workers lose money because I talked up a stock. Risk increase tremendously as TSLA hit all time highs daily. I have recommended Tesla at 200s with no takers.

I want to see people make money, not lose money. I talked up AMD when it was 14 dollars. People invest and then it cratered down to 9s and didn't get to 14 for months. I had to constantly calm their nerves. Only two out of 5 people held on and made some money.

You can only lead a horse to water...i never like to see people lose money either. Goes the saying 'You only lose if you sell....' Then again, You only realize gains if you sell as well and have to pay taxes...so best to HODL

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Surprise, surprise....we are back at the $2250 level...coincidence?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

3 coworkers have asked me if they should invest in Tesla. I said no to all of them. Everyone is looking for a quick cash grab. We know there will be a day TSLA will free fall. Cnbc will have a hr special inviting Gordon on to talk about BTC and tulips. I do not want to see them lose money as they are super weak longs who can't stomach any kind of red.

Until someone can show me they have the ability to actually understand the risk and the company at its basic levels, I am not recommending Tesla at current price levels and especially not during a run up like this.

Thanks for exercising your fiduciary responsibility to your co-workers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm still bullish that Q3 will support a 500-550 share price or potentially get us up to 600/share.

Yeah, I think Q3 Earnings gets us over $500. I think Q4 Guidance takes us to $600. (shortzes love to crow 'this is as good as it gets).

They ain't seen 2021H1 at Shanghai or 2020H2 at Berlin yet

(I bet somebody said those were 'nickels' not pennies)

Cheers!

 

[Criscmt]

Wasn't your main argument that Wall St. is short sighted? And that therefore it could dip, because it'll take the company's fundamentals more than Wall. St.'s short sighted 1-2 year investment horizon to catch up to the current SP of $2,000?

I'm pointing out that you don't have to look that far into the future (just a few years beyond these factories) to come up with a far higher price target than today's stock price. I think a 50x EBIT valuation is still more than fair for TSLA at that point in time considering it'll still have a lot of growth potential ahead of it, so I can use that 50x EBIT multiple to make up a "post-Shanghai/Berlin/Austin" price target for TSLA. Analysts usually discount these future valuations to some extent, which I did not do, but even after discounting that $4,600 to today, you should still end up with a price target well north of $2,000, even if you only look 3-4 years into the future.



I disagree with this very strongly. Tesla is gathering data at lightning pace:

• For the sake of this example, assume Tesla creates safer than a human FSD in late 2022.
• Tesla should have ~4M Hardware 2+ vehicles on the road at this point in time.
• Let's say 25% of them have the FSD package, so 1M.
• Let's say the average vehicles travels ~10k miles per year, so these vehicles will travel 10B miles total each year collectively, still under supervision.

After 1 year, Tesla now has 10B miles it can take to regulators. Provided this data confirms that Tesla's self-driving vehicles are indeed safer than a human by a significant margin, 10B miles will go a very long way towards convincing regulators. That should be in the ballpark of what will undeniably prove that Tesla's FSD system saves lives, and why wouldn't regulators approve something that saves lives?

This is imo Tesla's biggest advantage in the race towards a safer than a human, regulatory approved FSD system. It is the only company that has the ability to collect enough data to prove to regulators that their system saves lives.



I don't think so, but time will tell.



Agree with you on Battery Day.

Agree with you that if there's a serious drop, it'll be aggressive, but imo much more so due to delta hedging than due to a handful of stop losses.

Disagree with you on Tesla's fundamentals and valuation.

I also think we have different views of TSLA's stock price over the coming years. Obviously it's not going to 10x every 12 months. And I plan to severely deleverage soon and convert options to common stock, because I don't think the risk reward is there, and too much near term price appreciation is baked into options prices. However, I'd be surprised if it's under $2,000 12 and 24 months from now, and I believe it'll for the most part continue to slowly appreciate in value after it settles down a bit post S&P inclusion. I just don't know whether it will settle at $2,xxx, $3,xxx, or maybe even $4,xxx albeit quite unlikely.

> And I plan to severely deleverage soon and convert options to common stock, because I don't think the risk reward is there, and too much near term price appreciation is baked into options prices.

@FrankSG
Still going with the $2500 price point for the conversion of options to stocks?

 

[humbaba]

Did we cross 420B earlier today, showing 417B Market Cap right now

I'm getting $427.8B when it hit $2295.60

edit: needs $2253.70 to get the high number I guess

 

[generalenthu]

Relatively big volume day today, makes sense as we are outperforming Naz by ~4%

 

[ammulder]

All I can say is thank god for that midday drop.

This morning, it was starting to feel like things were completely disconnected from reality.

Now at least it seems like I'm not living in the Twilight Zone.

Though I may as well be, for all the actual work I'm getting done these days.

 

[Tslynk67]

View attachment 581361 -22 premarket, +140, -7 not big enough 5hour action to make the red headline!

one day tsla will make the big leagues

To be fair, it's no longer "news" when it happens every other day...

 

[PeterJA]

...As long as you refuse to believe there's any possibility of a downside for TSLA, you are fooling yourself. I agree that Tesla's business has never looked better than it does today, but I don't believe things in the future will ALWAYS LOOK at least as good as they do today. And, there's certainly the risk of a macro-event taking down the share price of most companies, Tesla included (especially after S&P inclusion) in the future. If you're a 20- or 30- something, I agree you just ride that out. If you're much older, you need contingency plans.

I guess the most astonishing thing for me in this thread is how short many people's memories are, or that "this time it's different." The best time to prepare for a rainy day is when the sun is shining.

Let me clarify. I don't believe a short-term severe TSLA drop is impossible, just unlikely now for the reasons I stated. If it happens, it will not be a "downside," but a buying opportunity that will make me ecstatic.

However I do believe a years-long severe drop, analogous to AMZN, is extremely unlikely.

Your original thesis that TSLA could stay down for years like AMZN is reasoning by analogy, not first principles. The first principles of TSLA are that Tesla is a historic company with unprecedented advantages and market opportunities. Yes, I believe "this time it's different," because Tesla is different. There has never been a company like them. Things change, with enough human intelligence and determination. Rockets land on barges now.

 

[Tslynk67]

Speigel and Chanos not ranked much higher? or are they lower?

You misread, "analysts", not "anal cysts"