Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tachyon]

Can we expect to see the volume of shares traded tomorrow to hit >85 million??
5 times the presplit average daily
Volume .

 

[[email protected]]

I should mention that Russia and China are quietly in a proxy war here over electrification, because Russia’s economy is a ruin and dependent entirely on oil and gas sales but China is a net importer of energy which is all-in on electric vehicles and is trying to use development of an electric vehicle industry to try and take over the world automobile industry because they obviously cannot take over the ICE industry. So there is a geopolitical battle going on between Russia, the “old” opponent of America from the Cold War era, and China, the “new” opponent of America in this burgeoning information age. When Tom Clancy imagined the Bear and the Dragon going to war, he was correct when he predicted it would be over energy, but he ended up being 20 years too early and predicted a shooting war instead of an economic one.

Tesla is meanwhile fighting a lonely battle against Big Auto, which is a multi-national juggernaut that is a key industry to the economy of multiple nations, most notably Germany which is the most important economy in the European Union. The geopolitical aspects of this are also notable, because traditionally strong economies and nations also had strong auto industries. The EU is at significant economic and geopolitical risk if their auto industry collapses and is replaced by (American) Tesla and Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers.

The United States, being the birthplace and home of Tesla and also China’s primary competitor, is the player around which all these geopolitical battles revolve. Russia has already signaled they are willing to try and undermine the US by covert means, and the recent attempt at a cyberattack on Giga Nevada is just the opening play on a growing geopolitical theater involving electrification. Entire nations and industries will be reshaped and destroyed in the next 20-30 years.

China and Russia, and about 70 other countries are partners of varying degrees in One Belt, One Road...what has been characterized by some as thee most ambitious, largest development project, ever. China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative
US foreign policy has ensured that the US is excluded from One Belt, One Road. And the Project will be largely de-dollarized. China and Russia are also large trading partners. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter and a massive grain exporter. Russia Cuts Off Wheat, Other Grain Exports.It also has a trifle of debt. $69 Trillion of World Debt in One Infographic It is one of the largest, if not largest, national repositories of natural resources. It would be helpful to have evidence supporting the notion of a geopolitical war between China and Russia. Preventing cooperation between Russia and China, and Russia and Germany/EU, has been a US policy goal. Recent developments suggest that the policy is not working. It would be helpful to see evidence of a war of any kind between Russia and China.

 

[Sofie]

I think the issue here can be broken into multiple categorizations.

(1) Shorts who intended to profit, mostly a mix of long-term and short-term positions. Andrew Left, Big Short Guy, David Einhorn, r/realtesla, and all of the other retail shorts. They are all done covering and have closed their positions when it became clear they would not profit. This is why I actually believe the nutjobs in r/realtesla when they claim none of them are short, because they have all been blown out of their positions already with massive losses and all they have now is their bitterness and hatred for Elon.

(2) Shorts who intended to use Tesla’s death as a prestige play. Jim Chanos. He will never cover, because his short position is a small part of the Kynikos short portfolio, and he will absorb infinite losses because his reputation as a genius short seller who called the collapse of Enron or whatever ego nonsense drives his smooth brain is on the line.

(3) Shorts who are trying to destroy Tesla because otherwise their survival is at risk. Oil companies, major auto companies, Russia, etc. These are industry-level plays and geopolitics plays, with positions held through proxies. They will never cover, because they literally need Tesla to fail or their entire industries and countries are at risk.

So one of the most interesting issues about Tesla is that there are essentially “permanent” shorts who will not or cannot ever cover, fighting against hedge funds and institutionals who have discovered the infinite money glitch in the current market structure. In summary, Market Makers are supposed to remain delta neutral because it’s their job to supply liquidity in the form of the day’s trading shares to buyers and sellers. But now people have found that you can purchase vast quantities of far-OTM calls and unbalance the MM’s neutrality requirement, forcing them to buy shares on the open market to hedge against their own sold calls. This drives the share price upwards, which forces the eternal shorts to cover part of their positions to maintain whatever position size they limit themselves to, which causes more buying of far-OTM options, which drives the price upwards. You can see the problem here.

So basically all we have to do is keep buying shares and far-OTM options and we can drive the share price upwards in a kind of slow-motion infinity squeeze, because the shorts who are still short absolutely will never cover and will continue to give us money forever or until someone who is a big hedge fund or instutitional whale finally decides enough is enough and starts a massive selloff, triggering everyone who is FOMO’ing into also selling their positions. Be vigilant, watch your TSLA portfolio daily and hourly, when the infinity squeeze ends it will be as sudden as the end of the legendary VW squeeze.

so are you essentially saying that there could come a day where we essentially plummet, to the point of no return, downwards?

 

[JustSaying]

We must have checked at the same time because I just about to post the same thing. Same broker.

Fidelity , Made all the proper adjustments Well Fargo no update to price or share count.

 

[Curt Renz]

flybrandenburg - today:

 

[SunCatcher]

flybrandenburg - today:

Progress is impressive! Exciting times...

 

[dhanson865]

The question is how will that look after battery day? How long after battery day will it take for a 3 year old Model 3 to drop in price enough to change that chart noticeably?

If they do drop in price after battery day it'll change the used car market. If they don't it'll just push more new sales.

On the topic of 3 year old Model 3s, what trims could that be at this point. Nothing but LR RWD?

* LR RWD July 2017 – November 2018 and March 2019 – June 2019, the first run can be 3 years old.
* AWD didn't start until July 2018 so won't be 3 years old until next year.
* Performance didn't start until July 2018 so won't be 3 years old until next year.
* LEMR for Limited Edition Mid Range is October 2018 – March 2019 so won't be 3 years old until next year. (probably be valued the same as a on older SR+ in the long run)
* SR/SR+ didn't start until March 2019 so won't be 3 years old until 2022.


new prices archive before battery day, all cars Blue with no FSD, no "savings", Excluding taxes and fees, rounded to the next thousand dollars. Just so I can easily configure and compare after changes come.

~$39,000 new 2020 SR+ Model 3
~$47,000 new 2020 AWD Model 3
~$51,000 new 2020 AWD Model Y

 

[Skryll]

[...] Market Makers are supposed to remain delta neutral because it’s their job to supply liquidity in the form of the day’s trading shares to buyers and sellers. But now people have found that you can purchase vast quantities of far-OTM calls and unbalance the MM’s neutrality requirement, forcing them to buy shares on the open market to hedge against their own sold calls. This drives the share price upwards, which forces the eternal shorts to cover part of their positions to maintain whatever position size they limit themselves to, which causes more buying of far-OTM options, which drives the price upwards. [...]

Why do they have to offer those calls for purchase?

Isn't it rather supply and demand, shares owners that write calls and are willing to sell them because they believe to either want to sell the shares at the strike price or that the calls will expire worthless when below, others buy the calls thinking it will go higher than strike price? if MM sell calls, that's a choice?

What am I missing.

 

[Open Interest]

442.68 on E*TRADE

I think $443.50 includes Friday’s AH rise

 

[Causalien]

A true review of the threads' histories will show a very mixed bag. What you're saying is 20-20 hindsight, and those who went all in then were often wrong on the timing of their leveraged invests and suffered large losses as TSLA stagnated longer than their option expirations.

While Tesla had the right product, business model, and plan, execution was always a risk, as was legacy OEM's potential to wake up. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than smart, but even just Elon at his word at how close Tesla was to failing on a number of occassions shows that investing in Tesla was never as easy as some people make it out to be today.

Ya, it was a hard time around the SEC period. Especially after you've toughed it out since the beginning. I believe out of all the period, that was the period when all public opinion seems to be against TSLA. Elon's lashing out on Twitter was from a position of weakness. I am glad that Elon grew up from that phase now and have the proper attitude on Twitter and learned how to send messages that blur the line between reality and fantasy so as to not give any legal leverage for enemies to use.

As a known investor of TSLA in the circle I was in, the amount of schadenfreude was highest then. It's like the current period ppl are mocking MAGA hat wearers for being low IQ and dumb. If I were to look at the evolution of the insults I got from owning TSLA, the beginning around IPO period, ppl were calling me dumb. Then aroud 2013 period ppl were calling me a scammer trying to get them to buy into a MLM. 2017 period most of the stuff is direct at Elon. I think I became "greedy" for wanting more and there were concerns about Elon going crazy. Today, ppl are just salty. "Oh you made just a few $$$, that's not too bad". Seriously, this is going to be the period of: "if I only didn't have <so and so> problems back then, I would've invested in TSLA cause I ended up investing in them in <insert period> which shows that I have the same foresight as you."

It's pretty ironic how the beginning of TSLA, there were so many media calling it Fraud whereas everywhere else the media were worshiping the grounds that Elizabeth Holmes walks on. The simple conclusion is to reverse the official media's play.

 

[Vad42]

Why do they have to offer those calls for purchase?

Isn't it rather supply and demand, shares owners that write calls and are willing to sell them because they believe to either want to sell the shares at the strike price or that the calls will expire worthless when below, others buy the calls thinking it will go higher than strike price? if MM sell calls, that's a choice?

What am I missing.

It’s a requirement for being MM.

The Role of Market Makers

A market maker must commit to continuously quoting prices at which it will buy (or bidfor) and sell (or ask for) securities.1 Market makers must also quote the volume in which they're willing to trade, and the frequency of time it will quote at the Best Bid and Best Offer (BBO) prices. Market makers must stick to these parameters at all times, during all market outlooks. When markets become erratic or volatile, market makers must remain disciplined in order to continue facilitating smooth transactions.

 

[Bet TSLA]

flybrandenburg - today:

Not much use for seeing an overview of progress, but wonderful for getting a feeling for how the construction progresses. The various buildings are at different stages, from ground prep to foundations to initial piers to walls to roofs. Plus you can see how they are preparing for an event that will no doubt feature a pep talk by Elon.

 

[Uncle Ron]

Fidelity , Made all the proper adjustments Well Fargo no update to price or share count.

Me too. Been checking Wells Fargo since Friday night. A bit concerned. I have called them over the years and asked if my shares are loaned to short sellers and they consistently said no. Always had good execution of purchases of new shares. Never did margin or options. Just that once with IB back in 2014. Did not go well. Something about a Model S flying thru a wall.

 

[Knightshade]

The question is how will that look after battery day? How long after battery day will it take for a 3 year old Model 3 to drop in price enough to change that chart noticeably?

Did an older/smaller battery S drop a ton every time a newer/larger battery was released? I don't believe that's the case but I'm open to data showing otherwise.

Further it's most likely the newest battery stuff will go to Plaid S/X, Roadster, and then Cybertruck before it makes it into 3s.

If they do drop in price after battery day it'll change the used car market. If they don't it'll just push more new sales.

Don't really see that either.

3 year old Model 3s sold for a lot more than new ones today (because Tesla was largely capturing the tax credit via pricing), yet apparently retain ~90% of their original price despite the credit going away.

That suggests demand remains high enough relative to supply to not cause much depreciation at all, and I don't see battery day changing that in the short term anyway.

 

[Khamul]

A miracle has happened: weather is currently go for SAOCOM 1B in 7 minutes. It's a return to launch site launch.

 

[Boomer19]

It’s a requirement for being MM.

The Role of Market Makers

A market maker must commit to continuously quoting prices at which it will buy (or bidfor) and sell (or ask for) securities.1 Market makers must also quote the volume in which they're willing to trade, and the frequency of time it will quote at the Best Bid and Best Offer (BBO) prices. Market makers must stick to these parameters at all times, during all market outlooks. When markets become erratic or volatile, market makers must remain disciplined in order to continue facilitating smooth transactions.

something that HFTs aren’t required to do

 

[kcveins]

A true review of the threads' histories will show a very mixed bag. What you're saying is 20-20 hindsight, and those who went all in then were often wrong on the timing of their leveraged invests and suffered large losses as TSLA stagnated longer than their option expirations.
.

Exactly!
I was one of those who suffered large losses with OTM options in 2015/2016 and lost out on buying an island (or 2)
I have found it much easier to sleep at night with simply holding TSLA in stock form and not getting back in options even through this precipitous rise. Once bitten, twice shy...

 

[tinyrodent]

 

[Sofie]

Exactly!
I was one of those who suffered large losses with OTM options in 2015/2016 and lost out on buying an island (or 2)
I have found it much easier to sleep at night with simply holding TSLA in stock form and not getting back in options even through this precipitous rise. Once bitten, twice shy...

I hear the chit chat about buying islands on here lately, so I’m curious, how much, roughly, do islands cost?

 

[OrthoSurg]

I hear the chit chat about buying islands on here lately, so I’m curious, how much, roughly, do islands cost?

Look at Fyre Festival on Netflix
You will see the island once owned by Pablo’s escobar and the rental fee with property fee