Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[omarsultan]

Inflation. The Model 3 is late, and the base model is also late.

If you account for inflation from the announcement date, the "Standard Plus" model is right at the original $35K price target, and it's probably going to make the margins which were planned (after a while). The mistake was announcing a non-inflation-adjusted price; the extra $2K was *hard* to squeeze out.

Makes sense--your observation about the Standard Plus model is spot on.

 

[KarenRei]

Anyone know more about how Musk's 11-Mar date for responding to the SEC charges is likely to play out? Is this will something that will happen before a judge? Is there a chance of dismissal (or punitive action) then, or is it pretty much guaranteed to drag on longer?

 

[Fact Checking]

We were hearing about the radical redesign way back in the Q3 conference call. What hasn't been clear is how many of the trims will have said radical redesign; does the SR+ have it? Have they switched the MR to it?

Note that Carsonight's report was from people who actually handled SR packs in the Gigafactory.

The fact that there's only about 20 kg weight difference between the SR and the SR+ suggests to me that the SR+ uses the SR pack, and the SR has ~8% fewer cells.

I'd expect the MR to still be LR pack based, but haven't checked the numbers.

I.e. SR and SR+ should have good margins.

 

[Zaxxon]

Nissan Leaf Plus.

Giving them away for merely...$36,550 too $42,550

OK, I am compelled to ask... can they make a profit on it? Ugly costs extra.

The Nissan Leaf Plus starts at $36,550

Was just about to come share that. (But removing Fred's no-source-attribution link and replacing it with the actual source. God, that drives me nuts when sites do that.)

So, we have:

Nissan	Tesla	Key Features
Leaf S Plus $36.5k	3 SR $35k	226/220 mi EPA	Leaf SV Plus $38.5k	3 SR+ $37k	226/240 mi EPA, fog lamps, improved audio (plus leatherette and powered/heated seats in the Tesla)	Leaf SL Plus $42.5k	3 MR plus AP $43k	226/264 mi EPA, leather and heated seats in the Nissan, plus Nissan ProPILOT Assist & other Autopilot-like features

[TR]
[TR] [/TR][/TR]

[TR][TR][TR]

That's... not a very flattering comparison for the Leaf. The Leaf will have the full tax credit for the rest of this year (at least), so it's got that going for it. But I'm hard-pressed to come up with a reason why I'd buy any of those Leaf models over the similarly-priced 3.[/tr][/tr][/tr]

 

[humbaba]

Well, now that the machine that makes the machine is well on its way, it's time to make the machine that makes the machine that makes the machine.

Its called an assembler, and the holy grail of nanotechnology which will assemble Skynet and call itself Wintermute

 

[jerry33]

Anyone know more about how Musk's 11-Mar date for responding to the SEC charges is likely to play out? Is this will something that will happen before a judge? Is there a chance of dismissal (or punitive action) then, or is it pretty much guaranteed to drag on longer?

From what I understand, this is just an exploratory response to see if there should be a trial for contempt. So either the judge will throw it out, or set some new date. (This is what I gathered from reading many of the previous posts on this subject.)

 

[Cherry Wine]

Anyone know more about how Musk's 11-Mar date for responding to the SEC charges is likely to play out? Is this will something that will happen before a judge? Is there a chance of dismissal (or punitive action) then, or is it pretty much guaranteed to drag on longer?

I believe Tesla has until March 11th to respond with a brief. Could be earlier. At this time I don't believe here is a "hearing" set.

 

[lklundin]

I am sorry to be that guy who talks about consumer protection. (Or maybe not).

There are some rumblings out there that within the EU, a purchase made via the Internet can be returned without justification for a full refund within 14 days.

However the exceptions to this include
"goods made to order or clearly personalised – such as a tailor-made suit".

So I guess (or hope) Tesla will keep their configurator as part of the order procedure, even for sales that are effectively directly from inventory.

Guarantees: repairs, replacements, refunds

 

[KarenRei]

Little bit of a spike going on...

 

[mongo]

I am sorry to be that guy who talks about consumer protection. (Or maybe not).

There are some rumblings out there that within the EU, a purchase made via the Internet can be returned without justification for a full refund within 14 days.

However the exceptions to this include
"goods made to order or clearly personalised – such as a tailor-made suit".

So I guess (or hope) Tesla will keep their configurator as part of the order procedure, even for sales that are effectively directly from inventory.

Guarantees: repairs, replacements, refunds

Is that only for shipped items? The vehicle is ordered on-line, but paperwork is still exchanged in person.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Little bit of a spike going on...

It’s too bad. I was hopeful we’d hit the uptick rule and lock the shorts out for a few days.

 

[humbaba]

While true, I would venture the ASP for the S and the X is closer to $100K. In that territory, buying experience carries more weight than it does down at $35K when expectations are minimal. It seems like Tesla could end up ceding the high end to the traditional manufacturers (MB, BMW, Audi, Porsche, etc) with this move. That is not a horrible thing if that is, in fact, the plan and would still be in alignment with the company mission statement.



To me, this is dangerous and arrogant thinking for a company. "Those buyers" still represent the vast majority of buying transactions happening. Early adopter buyers and early/later majority buyers are two different critters and it would be a mistake to assume what works for the former group will work for the later as they have different criterion and value different things. For example, Elon pointing out the speed of the buying transaction. So, a frictionless buying experience is great when I am ordering a pizza but maybe not not what I am looking for hen plopping down $35K.

When you say "those buyers still represent" you are making an assumption. One that is not supported by Tesla's numbers for their sales. Its north of 80% just buy online as it is. I don't think it is dangerous or arrogant for a company to not try and encompass all potential customers. In fact, the vast swath of people who can afford no more than a $35k car have been ignored until now.

And, please note, I'm not saying that Tesla isn't leaving money on the table. And I mean no offense to those that want or need the experience. But they are clearly optimizing for selling more units. They can't do it all and are making decisions. In this case I see the decision as furthering the mission (accelerating adoption) and not risking the business (they are cutting costs to better afford the former).

 

[KarenRei]

I am sorry to be that guy who talks about consumer protection. (Or maybe not).

There are some rumblings out there that within the EU, a purchase made via the Internet can be returned without justification for a full refund within 14 days.

However the exceptions to this include
"goods made to order or clearly personalised – such as a tailor-made suit".

So I guess (or hope) Tesla will keep their configurator as part of the order procedure, even for sales that are effectively directly from inventory.

Guarantees: repairs, replacements, refunds

Even ignoring that... One thing I've thought about a lot is that Tesla could easily make "semi-personalized" vehicles. That is, make the vehicles in standard configs, but then have some small parts which are "custom" for the customer (engraved / 3d printed, custom patterns, or whatnot), which could then be fitted immediately before delivery by a local SC. So the little parts could just be airmailed when a person orders a car (from the nearest supplier), and then they'd merely be fitted to a vehicle in stock.

 

[mongo]

Little bit of a spike going on...

Max pain is 305 per Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain and macros are trending up

 

[anthonyj]

It’s too bad. I was hopeful we’d hit the uptick rule and lock the shorts out for a few days.

Uptick rule didn’t help the stock in January at all. This is mostly gamblers/longs selling anyway

 

[Earlian]

First time ever, I couldn’t catch up over the day. I am now 500 posts behind since yesterday evening ((0).

Wow folks, just wow!

At TSLA:

I sold some March + June calls and added more Stock. I”m done with the short term rollercoster, but the long term trust in TSLA was never been stronger then Today!

Gratulations to Tesla!

No matter how the next months are gonna be, Tesla will lead the best EVs for years to come. And privately I’m trying to get my fingers on a new Model S and trade my current one. Theese prices are to good to be true!

Cheers to the real longs (not the ones that sold today)!

 

[MarcusMaximus]

When you say "those buyers still represent" you are making an assumption. One that is not supported by Tesla's numbers for their sales. Its north of 80% just buy online as it is. I don't think it is dangerous or arrogant for a company to not try and encompass all potential customers. In fact, the vast swath of people who can afford no more than a $35k car have been ignored until now.

And, please note, I'm not saying that Tesla isn't leaving money on the table. And I mean no offense to those that want or need the experience. But they are clearly optimizing for selling more units. They can't do it all and are making decisions. In this case I see the decision as furthering the mission (accelerating adoption) and not risking the business (they are cutting costs to better afford the former).

There’s also going to be a non-zero percentage of the remaining number who still would have ordered otherwise.

 

[AcesDealt]

So if you take the ASP in Q4 for model 3 at ~54k$, and margins at ~20% then cost to manufacture is 43k$ for the mixed options vehicle that this represents. I simply don't think you can start pulling off pieces of that sufficiently to get anywhere near profitable for a 35k$ to 37k$ vehicle and that's at the gross profit line. Let's say you want to get to 30k$ gross cost for the base model in order to sufficiently justify selling it, and that it covers op. ex and so on. Someone show me how you get from 43k$ to 30k$? The battery is less than 4k$ of that.

At the same time, the base model after incentives is now ~29k$ or a mid-range Honda Accord. That's entirely too inexpensive. They should sell too many of them. I think they are going to empty off the reservation list and jack the prices up.

 

[pdwitt]

But any good tire place can give you an alignment. No need for a service center.

My mobile tech took it for alignment at a local store and returned it a few hours later.

 

[keydiver]

Hi troll. 6k sales a month for expensive Model 3 is pretty good. A lot more than 3 series or C Class. Obviously 25k a month was unsustainable.

Especially when a HUGE percentage of the January and February production was dedicated to Europe and China shipments. IMHO, March should look much better.