Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[30seconds]

Well more evidence for hyper-longs that demand is not unaffected by price. Tesla cars are indeed is price elastic. And that's normal and okay.

Just atip with the "Tesla is supply-limited" mmmkay?

What’s the evidence that they were not supply limited prior to this quarter?

Also with expansion to Europe and China this quarter telsa will likely be supply limited

 

[uselesslogin]

Well, we shouldn't lose sight of how awesome Tesla is doing now and how exciting it is that the Model 3 is out there in growing numbers. Also, I think the stock price will now easily stay under the hedges Tesla purchased back in 2014 so no dilution from that bond sale either. That was a steal.

 

[mongo]

On the other hand, the $2k price drop means that Tesla is only out $1,750 on each Model 3 they promised in Q4 that gets delivered in Q1.

(yes, depends on how you look at it. Would have been better for them to sell the car in Q4, but, having missed that target, this is an improvement over a $3,750 write off).

 

[ZsoZso]

Never thought I would have the opportunity to buy TSLA for $300 in 2019.
This is a wonderful New Year's gift, thank you Wall Street Idiots!!!

 

[EVNow]

The real question is to buy at open, or wait a bit to see where its going.

Depends on Nasdaq - if it goes down after open - so could TSLA irrespective of the opening price (down $30).

 

[LoveTSLA]

As I said last week, the short term SP Is determined by Q1 number projections. Not Q4’s because we knew Q4 number is not bad. The problem is they did not say anything about Q1. Not sure what to do now.

 

[JRP3]

I have to admit if I was Elon, I would not have dropped the price. Sure, it means progress towards $35k, but surely right now a higher, more sustainable looking profit margin would be better? Use the extra cash to invest for the companies future. I'd be happy if they waited a month, or even a quarter before making the price reduction.
Why sell cars for less than the market is prepared to pay?

I agree, especially when early Q1 production should be mostly for overseas vehicles not US based.

 

[BaneBeater]

The stock price is tanking because there are roughly 7000 Model 3s in inventory that Tesla can't sell.

The difference between Model 3s produced and Model 3s delivered is just over 8000, but only 1000 were "in transit."

That means Tesla has 7000 Model 3s in inventory that they haven't been able to sell. That goes against the Model of "every car produced already has a buyer."

Furthermore, Tesla hasn't given any guidance on what to expect for 2019.

If demand does decline in the US and Tesla can't get EU homologation, the negative working capital becomes a huge problem.

MODERATOR EDIT:
The material shown in this post is demonstrably false and, given as it coming from a newly-created poster, very badly suggests mischief.
For an accurate assessment of the numbers, please refer to this post: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[KarenRei]

As I said last week, the short term SP Is determined by Q1 number projections. Not Q4’s because we knew Q4 number is not bad. The problem is they did not say anything about Q1. Not sure what to do now.

Why should they say anything about Q1?

 

[Buckminster]

Sell the rumour.
Sell the news.
Sold their integrity (again).
As I have said previously, Q1 ER is where it is at. 100% shorts proof! We just need to hold on until May.

 

[lascavarian]

Lol what. The media is reporting a “miss” of a couple hundred cars? You guys realize the news is skewed so that institutional investors can buy cheaply before Q4 earnings?

Guy on CNBC, Munster I think, called it a 10% ish miss. Indicates production problems remain. Said expectations for some were over 100,000 units. He will be back on throughout the day so more to come. Seemed way optimistic to me but question is how this frames expectation for financials.

 

[ZeApelido]

When they can charge a price that earns 20% margins and still sell everyone they make, without leases, and only selling to half the global marketplace, yes, they're very much supply limited.

Fine if you want to argue on that definition. Then so is every product that hasn't worked down the full price/demand curve.

But it still shows they are price-elastic They wouldn't do this unless they expected demand at this level to drop.

And I agree it's fine as long as healthy margins will remain.

 

[KarenRei]

The stock price is tanking because there are roughly 7000 Model 3s in inventory that Tesla can't sell.

The difference between Model 3s produced and Model 3s delivered is just over 8000, but only 1000 were "in transit."

That means Tesla has 7000 Model 3s in inventory that they haven't been able to sell. That goes against the Model of "every car produced already has a buyer."

Furthermore, Tesla hasn't given any guidance on what to expect for 2019.

If demand does decline in the US and Tesla can't get EU homologation, the negative working capital becomes a huge problem.

No, it's perfectly in accordance with Tesla's announced guidance of maintaining a small amount of inventory of common configurations in order to speed the turnaround of orders into deliveries.

 

[KarenRei]

Fine if you want to argue on that definition. Then so is every product that hasn't worked down the full price/demand curve.

But it still shows they are price-elastic They wouldn't do this unless they expected demand at this level to drop.

And I agree it's fine as long as healthy margins will remain.

Everything on Earth is price elastic. That doesn't change the fact that they can easily sell everything they make under very favourable conditions to them.

 

[defc0n]

Didn't they miss their yearly target of 100k?

Tesla did sell more S & X last year compared to this year. The financials should still look good similar or slightly better than Q3. Doesn't warrant an 8% drop -- that's pretty bonkers.

 

[KarenRei]

Aaaand we're off to the races.

ED: Got some $300s shortly after the bell

 

[mongo]

Remember, if Tesla is 10% down at any point compared to close on Monday, the uptick rule kicks in.

Edit: It happened. Up tick in effect all of today and tomorrow. Shorts can only slow a rise (add to ask list above current SP), they cannot push the the price down (sell at bid price).

 

[tivoboy]

I wouldn't buy on the open for anyone talking about that.

 

[traxila]

The stock price is tanking because there are roughly 7000 Model 3s in inventory that Tesla can't sell.

The difference between Model 3s produced and Model 3s delivered is just over 8000, but only 1000 were "in transit."

That means Tesla has 7000 Model 3s in inventory that they haven't been able to sell. That goes against the Model of "every car produced already has a buyer."

Furthermore, Tesla hasn't given any guidance on what to expect for 2019.

If demand does decline in the US and Tesla can't get EU homologation, the negative working capital becomes a huge problem.

Um not following. They produced 61k and delivered 63k.

But anything left over is definitely due to inability to sell? What does that say for all the Legacy’s inventory out there?

 

[ZeApelido]

Everything on Earth is price elastic. That doesn't change the fact that they can easily sell everything they make under very favourable conditions to them.

Come on, you know things like oil and electricity consumption are much less price elastic.

Tesla is just like any other car company in that regard. Consumers are still price sensitive, albeit at higher levels if profit margin.

The market will still be scared about how Tesla will handle the rest of the $3750 change in the future while maintaining healthy margins.

You are right that they have many demand levers, but the market doesn't like uncertainty.