Anyone know: did FactSet announce their estimate ahead of time? I feel like every quarter, we get low-ball estimates from absolutely everybody, actual numbers beat that, and suddenly everybody retroactively estimated above that.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
For those who had been concerned about ARK Invest occasionally selling a small portion of its TSLA holdings in some of its ETFs to keep it under a 10% threshold, here are all of ARK's trades today.
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Alphacrux
Member
Yes, with the Q4 delivery numbers, the shorts' Bankwuptcy thesis has vanished.
But to see a new ATH, I think we'll have to see a recovery of the macros (updated trade deal with China, Fed) + at least of of the following:
- Unveiling and updated availability date of the Model Y,
- Coast-to-coast FSD demo
- Significant increase in fixed-storage revenue
Did I miss anything?
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I am holding my stock positions, which I got at around 270. I have a few leaps too.
I hold this view mainly because the volume is not high enough today and on weekly basis, the downward momentum is still strong.
I could definitely be wrong. Just joined the forum yesterday after tons of reading on the 2018 roundtable. It was a really good read.
Ulmo
Active Member
I think this helps with the exclusiveness of the vehicle and having a stable manufacturing chain.
Changes to those products are fuzzier to me; maybe a car exec could give us insight. Just what comes to mind to me: Incremental improvements don't have to compete with ramp ups. There is a danger of ossification (lack of flexibility) in the minds of the development and manufacturing chain, which is a danger for innovation and improvement. Beyond that, they don't tell us whether or not they're trying to combine future products into new lines and any of that might replace the older S and X models if those lines turn out to be more profitable, or if they're trying to keep the old lines and improve those, or do both, and all of that is cash dependent.
Today's volume for 11.5 million vs the running Yahoo average of 8.7 million.I am holding my stock positions, which I got at around 270. I have a few leaps too.
I hold this view mainly because the volume is not high enough today and on weekly basis, the downward momentum is still strong.
I could definitely be wrong. Just joined the forum yesterday after tons of reading on the 2018 roundtable. It was a really good read.
To me, that, along with price band post up-tick rule, says many people think buying TSLA in the 300's is good idea/ deal.
This situation is perfect for longs.
Figures are record and market is in denial.
You can't have a better position for buying.
Won't stay too long on this levels.
Figures are record and market is in denial.
You can't have a better position for buying.
Won't stay too long on this levels.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The final Bloomberg Tracker estimate for Model 3 Production in 2018Q4 was 8,124 units below (-13.2%) actual production: (screenshot courtesy carsonight/DISQUS):
Indeed, the Bloomberg Q4 Production estimate (made a full 13 weeks into Q4, mind you) was exactly 31 vehicles higher than actual production in Q3:
Can we finally put a fork in this useless toad? Or at least stop calling it an 'estimate', when 'hit-job' will suffice?
Cheers!
P.S. Note that the BBestimate for '13 week trailing average' production was also way off at a low-ball 4,008 rather than the 4,723 we can now compute from Tesla's production numbers for Q4. That's another 15.1% error in the Bloomberg production estimates. No wonder these turkeys don't publish error-bars for their forecasts. Sheesh.
Indeed, the Bloomberg Q4 Production estimate (made a full 13 weeks into Q4, mind you) was exactly 31 vehicles higher than actual production in Q3:
(Q4actual-BB.err) - Q3actual = Diff.Est Q4-Q3
(61,394-8,124) - 53,239 = 31
(61,394-8,124) - 53,239 = 31
Can we finally put a fork in this useless toad? Or at least stop calling it an 'estimate', when 'hit-job' will suffice?
Cheers!
P.S. Note that the BBestimate for '13 week trailing average' production was also way off at a low-ball 4,008 rather than the 4,723 we can now compute from Tesla's production numbers for Q4. That's another 15.1% error in the Bloomberg production estimates. No wonder these turkeys don't publish error-bars for their forecasts. Sheesh.
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Delivery report is good, allow the news to actully trickle down, I expect a bounce back tomoro with some strong headline adjustments later on this evening.
I will be holding, would have loved to buy more at such a low price, if i had the free capital I would have snapped them up at 300.
I will be holding, would have loved to buy more at such a low price, if i had the free capital I would have snapped them up at 300.
mekberg
Member
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Was popping on here to see if this was being discussed. They seem to think they "nailed it".
Model 3 Tracker Nails Tesla’s Exit From ‘Production Hell’
Weren't they at like 52k yesterday?
Buddyroe
Active Member
I have believed for years that Tesla would lower their prices when the tax credits expired (or were reduced). That's the main reason I didn't get sucked into the "buy now before the credit goes down" pitch.
Tesla lowering their prices so quickly does help to verify the haters theory that Tesla was actually the recipients of the tax credit versus the consumer since they simply raised their prices to account for the credit (well, $2000 of $3750 so far).
I feel your pain. 90% of the posters here are awesome. Then, there are those you try to scan right on by. Would be much easier with an ignore feature.
Tesla lowering their prices so quickly does help to verify the haters theory that Tesla was actually the recipients of the tax credit versus the consumer since they simply raised their prices to account for the credit (well, $2000 of $3750 so far).
I feel your pain. 90% of the posters here are awesome. Then, there are those you try to scan right on by. Would be much easier with an ignore feature.
I like the one from Motley Fool. Apparently TSLA is one of 10 stocks they say to buy now. Naturally you have to pay them to find out the other 9. My favorite line from that one:
Well now we shift to the macro picture. Apple is not going to help anyone tomorrow. Although TSLA does not seem to be affected too much AH so far.
Well now we shift to the macro picture. Apple is not going to help anyone tomorrow. Although TSLA does not seem to be affected too much AH so far.
NSDQ is going to get hammered tomorrow, overall too. I don't think TSLA will be immune to this. stay frosty.
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