Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Chinese news network reported that China Ministry of Commerce confirmed a high profile US team will visit china on Jan-7th and 8th to continue the tariff talk.
中美将于1月7日-8日举行经贸问题副部级磋商
It's currently the top news listed on their website.
This is not really news, since we already saw it reported several days ago:
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
But the way it's reported in Chinese media shows the gov want people to be assured that they are making good progress, which means either they really did make great progress or they are willing to make a deal happen.
Could be positive sign for Macro.
Yes, macro futures are up so far, with the NASDAQ index leading with +1.7%.
I'd expect the China deal to look like NAFTA 2.0: token concessions to allow Trump to claim victory.
The big question is, does Trump want to see the 52th state of the U.S., where most of U.S. manufacturing is done (also called "China"), which is pegged to the U.S. dollar, see crash and burn, together with the U.S. economy? If yes then he has the executive power to make it happen.
My guess:
- China can offer the Trump clan a sweet, sweet side deal the conman will not be able to resist.
- Secondly, owners of the Fix News bubble he is relying on is deeply invested in the U.S. economy, and the anti-Fed attacks are already showing that they very much do not want a prolonged stock market crash.
- Third, a lousy U.S. economy next year (which a China crash would guarantee) would sink even a good president's re-election chances. A president with Trump's humiliating midterm results would have no chance for a re-election amidst a recession.