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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
My guess:
- They just do not have space in Fremont to expand capacity (maxed out)
- Shanghai will take the 3k/w that leaves 7k/w for NA/EU so you are at 10k/w
- Adding Shanghai and Fremont you are at 500k p.a. already and GF4 in plan
- With Y and Semi in GF1 they have enough projects to execute on for 2019
I’m curious - how long can Tesla only produce M3 for Europe and China? They must really be close to clearing out the US inventory soon. (Not the worst thing to happen if they are about to switch to V3 Autopilot Hardware.)
EVNow
Well-Known Member
YES !
As EM explained, sock is a major part of the compensation of employees - and when the SP is high, they feel well compensated. When it is low, they feel not paid enough.
This is the reason large highly profitable companies - like Apple or Microsoft - with a lot of cash care about stock price.
I'm still so confused by the SP reaction. Every single bear theory has fallen by the wayside. All I see now is "oh no, the CFO left after coming back and getting the company running well. This must be the end!"
Yup. I actually think more competition will provide a positive pressure on Tesla shares. I don't care if they lose market share of EVs, as long as they are selling more and making more $$.
I think it's less so than before. Sure SP is a feel good thing and assists in compensation, but now Tesla is more or less self funding. Smart employees would trade better long term SP options for a short term bonus I think.
Seems the NA demand is gone. They have Approx. 7000 in inventory. That could last for some time.
"This is a strong indication that demand in the U.S. for both the mid-range and long-range Model 3 versions has largely been exhausted, and the company is still working through the estimated ~6.8k of unsold Model 3 inventory,"
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
Regarding space for 7k, did anybody take notice of this article: Tesla Model 3 Sales Shatter All Records In December 2018
It says a big chunk of the quarter's output was made in December, when we saw messages from Vicky like "doing 1,300/day sustained, getting close to 1,400"
That's like 6.3k/week, with the space not being an issue.
Shanghai is still a year away, during which time they could be selling 7k meanwhile.
Other priorities like Y and Semi do not seem to be competing, they could do these things concurrently.
Some time ago I posted about lessors to indirect auto finance which we considering setting up non-recourse leasing options that would enable originators (dealers, distributors or manufacturers) to avoid deferring income since they would have no credit risk or residual value risk.
That has happened. However, contrary to initial expectations Tesla will not be included. It seems that dealer groups, credit unions and small regional banks are easier initial targets for them. Presumably this might eventually include Tesla, especially since similar independent lease offerings of Teslas are already happening in some countries in Europe.
That has happened. However, contrary to initial expectations Tesla will not be included. It seems that dealer groups, credit unions and small regional banks are easier initial targets for them. Presumably this might eventually include Tesla, especially since similar independent lease offerings of Teslas are already happening in some countries in Europe.
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Dennisj00
Member
I doubt you could find 7 customers of the OEMs that bought without a test drive!
After going through the transcript and then catching up on the many insightful contributions to this thread, about the only significant nugget I came up with that has not been discussed is the China build out beyond 2019.
"...we're only just talking about Phase 1 here. Phase 1 is about 10% of what we think the Gigafactory will ultimately be. So it's a major, major, major deal."
If Phase 1 is 10% of the build out and equals 3000 cars week, then at full build out how many cars a week do we think China GF could produce? Of course some this future phases might include things like in house cell production not just more cars. Point is the long term China GF picture is a "... major, major, major deal." not just the 3k a week by the end of 2019 most people are focussed on.
"...we're only just talking about Phase 1 here. Phase 1 is about 10% of what we think the Gigafactory will ultimately be. So it's a major, major, major deal."
If Phase 1 is 10% of the build out and equals 3000 cars week, then at full build out how many cars a week do we think China GF could produce? Of course some this future phases might include things like in house cell production not just more cars. Point is the long term China GF picture is a "... major, major, major deal." not just the 3k a week by the end of 2019 most people are focussed on.
Its all so obvious and hard to understand people who do not understand.
Maybe a picture does help....?
James Stephenson on Twitter
6 replies20 retweets50 likes
Maybe a picture does help....?
James Stephenson on Twitter
6 replies20 retweets50 likes
Its all so obvious and hard to understand people who do not understand.
Maybe a picture does help....?
James Stephenson on Twitter
6 replies20 retweets50 likes
Shorts generally say, "That's not fair, you can't count the debt of their leasing unit - their leasing units makes them money!" Yeah, it's also an essential part of their business. I always repsond, "Is that how you want to play this game - just pretending that parts of your business that have lots of debt don't exist, and you can just cut them out of the comparison? Okay, let's pretend that Tesla's debt doesn't include the March convertibles because that's in Tesla Energy."
GM's debt (and Ford's worse debt relative to market cap) is tied to the asset value of car leases, which is much riskier in a financial downturn.
Damn! Too bad there is no comments section. I would have gone ballistic on these guys!Tesla ramps production as competitors flood market with electric cars. 'Pile-up of epic proportions'
Prepare for a pile up of epic proportions.
As someone on Twitter pointed out, Tesla's IPO was in 2010, so the AMZN cross-over happens not after close to 9 years, but after close to 7 years...
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Curious law introduced in the CA legislature today that would exempt trucks > 6,000lbs. manufactured in CA for use without the state from sales taxes. Introduced by a Republican author, and lowers taxes, so probably won't go anywhere. Would benefit Tesla though wouldn't it?
AB 321 (Patterson)
AB 321 (Patterson)
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