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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Priority is efficient and diligent cost spending and management. They pretty much said they were positioning the company to be in the best shape possible to withstand the upcoming recession, while still growing the company 50%+ and maintaining FCF.

Not really sure what about that has anyone confused. It’s got to be the most sensible and brilliant business strategy ever to make sure the company is around to see its mission through. If we’re hit with a recession, which many are calling for in the not to distant future, and Tesla isn’t prepared for it, just how do you expect them to be around to get more affordable EVs in people’s hands? You going to expect GM? Ford? BMW? to pick up the EV slack?
If in December someone would say that Tesla is @7k production, that person would receive 20 likes, 15 loves etc. and those who questioned that they are close to that number sustained would get a bunch of disagrees. I'm sure there are tons of posts like that if we go back.

So, when Elon says we're far from 7k and the response is "how can that be confusing to anyone"... Well, I think this is in line with Bloomberg's approach of massaging their delivery numbers and is not honest.

I did hear the message that the are working on costs and the reason is obvious - $35k car.
It did not get across so clearly to me that the preparation for recession is the reason for keeping production numbers down.

If you have the quote, I'm happy to re-read it.

Btw, when I questioned the "tiny profit" there were many unproductive responses too and I believe I stated myself first the 2 reasons that Elon mentioned - in-transit cars & restructuring costs.

@ReflexFunds had interesting points too, which Elon did not speak of.

So...while your answer is applicable, it doesn't look like the primary reason. Surely they can ramp down in a recession if there's a need to do that, but given 500k recession demand estimate, Freemont would not be at that level yet.
I'll wait to see if somebody comes up with a better explanation.
 
Clearly, Tesla's second consecutive profitable quarter means Mr. Lentz has proven to be wrong already.

I actually disagree here. He’s absolutely right. It is a recipe for losing money right now for everyone except Tesla. It will take years of losing money to make the transition(during which also eating into their gas car profits) for the Fords, GM’s and Toyotas of the world.

Tesla already bit that bullet, aided by the fact that they didn’t need to maintain a profitable ICE business at the same time.
 
Well this is nice to see :)

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Amazon sold books online, that's where I feel we are with the Model 3. It's hard to visualize a world where Tesla supplies a good chunk of residential energy and transport needs, but that's clearly where we're headed.

I think "grid services" will eventually flow to others and Tesla will focus on the consumers side(microgrids, solar aggregation, etc). That's where they'll be needed most and where the money will be.

Amazon owns retail, energy is a much bigger market.

True, but remember, Amazon's success is because of process innovations. They reduced friction in the buying process, the innovated with logistics, they made efficiency gains which all translated into things that attracted customers: speed, selection and price. I am not sure that's Tesla's gig--they are delivering actual product innovation. I see them being more like the Disney with multiple loosely related lines of business that feed each other.

I like to think of it as Amazon is what happened when high tech hit an old staid industry like retail, and Tesla is what will happen when hi tech meets heavy manufacturing.
 
True, but remember, Amazon's success is because of process innovations. They reduced friction in the buying process, the innovated with logistics, they made efficiency gains which all translated into things that attracted customers: speed, selection and price. I am not sure that's Tesla's gig--they are delivering actual product innovation. I see them being more like the Disney with multiple loosely related lines of business that feed each other.

Isn’t Tesla doing a lot of the same things? Online orders of new cars in seconds, open return policy on cars, OTA updates for cars, mobile service, delivery to your house, Superchargers, etc. Now they’re talking about instant automatic roadside assistance when things go wrong, most repairs(including body work) done in minutes, car driving itself to service appointments, etc.

Honestly, the car being electric is one of the least exciting things about their products.
 
I think the most synergistic piece to Tesla Energy and Tesla Motors is establishing the supercharger network in order to create self sufficient solar+energy storage nodes which would allow Tesla to continuously drop energy “fuel up” rates to customers.

No other auto company on the planet will have this advantage until they develop their own solar+storage company to challenge legacy utilities control, which is not even on their radars in reality.

Reducing charging rates will drastically increase demand, even if the vehicles cost more. People will continue to “buy up” due to overall cost of ownership advantages.

In addition, the lower cost of energy makes Tesla energy products desirable in the rooftop/home market which will reflect in high demand there.

It is all positive spiral as incentives align around reducing the cost of energy to consumers as paramount.

Not many see how elegantly architected Tesla business really is, as it continues along the growth path. It’s a chain reaction of innovation and scale set up by deep strategic design, IMO.
 
It may PTSD (Pricing Tsla Stress Disorder), but I think today might be an inflection point for the SP. The day's horizontal movement suggests the remaining shorts are making an orderly exit. The usual (but limited) FUD machine produced a very weak and short MMD. By Noon the usual volatility was absent. I'm cautiously hopeful for a slow and steady climb into the next ER.
 
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It may PTSD (Pricing Tsla Stress Disorder), but I think today might be an inflection point for the SP. The day's horizontal movement suggests the remaining shorts are making an orderly exit. The usual (but limited) FUD machine produced a very weak and short MMD. By Noon the usual volatility was absent. I'm cautiously hopeful for a slow and steady climb into the next ER.
TSLA’s short interest is at a multi-year low so you may be right.

Anyone else expecting major FUD next week when InsideEVs publishes delivery #s? Elon did state that most production is going to EU and China so it makes sense to expect lower than average American deliveries
 
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Really makes you wonder why he still has a job. What other job can you fail so miserably and consistently at without being fired?
Consistent failure and consistent success are both highly profitable if we were to consider just the buy/sell signal which is binary.

edit* just checked his success rate, he actually got 55% but with average return -7.6%! Now the only explanation left is

- When he is right he is only right in a small way
- When he is wrong he is wrong in a big way.
 
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Normal TSLA stock action post ER. Market action and macro volatility. A drift down with an accelerated push by shorts on no new news is a high probability. That's only a 10% move and about a 7% move from the mornings lows.

Nobody would bat an eye.
While I agree this is probable, this is pure heuristic. I guess you just don't want to miss any chance to make profit in the short term? I'd rather pick up shares and get into calls when it swings up. Seems like a much safer bet.
 
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