It will be true when they pay $1 billion off on March 1.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
I like the KANDI. I'd buy one to through in the frunk as a spare.
Ok, two speculative ideas somewhat related...
1. Employee leasing should be at a decent price and a quick transaction given being the employer. This can clean up any inventory quickly and advance sales forward efficiently as needed. This could be helpful in a quarter where a lot of vehicles are going to be in route (a slower sales). Additionally, these units can be loaded with the new NN board since I think all these employees are under NDA and this will advance experience with the new board.
2. There are lot of engineers working on FSD to get it feature complete this year. Next year begins the fine tuning to reach a compelling level of safety/performance for the regulatory agencies. In the third year it would be nice to have some/most of those SW engineers also working on the Tesla version of Uber. If leasing moves beyond employees then there might be lot of Model 3s coming off lease just at the 3 year mark when Tesla Mobility Services Network will need some affordable rolling stock such as the off lease vehicles being returned at a depreciated value. Great way to start a green fleet in those countries that have adopted autonomy. I believe I heard Elon make a comment on the ARK Podcast that Tesla Mobility Services will be much much cheaper than other ride services. FSD on a very safe and very depreciated vehicle could prove very competitive come about 2021 or so.
Just something disruptive to think about.
1. Employee leasing should be at a decent price and a quick transaction given being the employer. This can clean up any inventory quickly and advance sales forward efficiently as needed. This could be helpful in a quarter where a lot of vehicles are going to be in route (a slower sales). Additionally, these units can be loaded with the new NN board since I think all these employees are under NDA and this will advance experience with the new board.
2. There are lot of engineers working on FSD to get it feature complete this year. Next year begins the fine tuning to reach a compelling level of safety/performance for the regulatory agencies. In the third year it would be nice to have some/most of those SW engineers also working on the Tesla version of Uber. If leasing moves beyond employees then there might be lot of Model 3s coming off lease just at the 3 year mark when Tesla Mobility Services Network will need some affordable rolling stock such as the off lease vehicles being returned at a depreciated value. Great way to start a green fleet in those countries that have adopted autonomy. I believe I heard Elon make a comment on the ARK Podcast that Tesla Mobility Services will be much much cheaper than other ride services. FSD on a very safe and very depreciated vehicle could prove very competitive come about 2021 or so.
Just something disruptive to think about.
Corporate Counsel has a profile of Tesla's new GC, Jonathan Chang, up here -- it's very positive.
Highlights:
Highlights:
- Been with Tesla since April 2011.
- Described as very "respected" within the company.
- Been involved with many aspects of the company's legal department; played a "key role" in the SolarCity acquisition and early payoff of Dept. of Energy loan.
- Described as someone who will bring "stability" to the legal department.
SunCatcher
Member
Pretty sure thats not killing any Tesla’s...
Can't we all just get along? Yeah, I'm not sure those little guys are going to grow up to be Tesla Killers!
Can one of these things tow another to extend the mileage?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Well - 100k+ people have been driving 24 kwh Leafs for years. So, yes.
ps : (Leaf '11 was 74 miles EPA, '13 was 83.)
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There' a chance that the current state of AP might be quickly advanced by HW3, which is a pre-req for FSD.
EM sounded very confident they'll have all pieces by EOY, but that doesn't mean they'll be released. Regulatory approval may be the holdup. If Tesla gets it, then initially Beta FSD may be able to handle 95-99% of scenarios and user interventions will help them tune the system for another 1-2 years, at which point if they can show that uninterrupted miles driven get better accident rates than average, then they can see if regulators approve non-Beta.
I think that with FSD accidents insurance companies will no longer penalize you the owner, but penalize the car(with FSD) with higher insurance rates if those accidents are above average.
It would not be fair for Tesla to accept the liability for FSD accidents, because they won't have a consistent revenue stream to cover accidents risk like other insurance companies. One time charge for FSD is not enough money.
So, I would keep that Beta status on FSD until accident rates are better than average. Whether that takes a year or more is anybody's guess.
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I have one of those. Can make it to work and back... barely. I believe the EPA estimate was ~105 miles, but that was a joke when the car was new and is just sad these days, where I realistically get ~40(fortunately, I bought it used)
Dennisj00
Member
Reciprocity
Active Member
Yeah just like the $50k Model S. The point is that Tesla has more demand for MR+ then it can fulfill so why ever make more then a small run of SR? For the math challenged because this seems to be going right over everyone's heads. If you can only make 300,000 cars in a Year, and you sell 300,000 MR+, how many SR can you see in that year? Before you say... but but... 360,000! That is total cars not just Model 3. Also, the 300,000 I speak up is roughly where they will be on June 30th with 145k, the bulk of which in the last 2 QTRs 2018 and 155k in the first 2 QTRs of 19. Unless you believe that no one else wants a model 3 and shorts are right that every hippy tree huger saved up every penny they had and bought all the model 3s they could and no one else wants them.. They will sell an SR for $35k.. In China. And they will sell a "Standard Range" car in the US, it will just be 264 miles and cost $39,500 and not a 200 mile range car.
I believe they will have a run of no more than 50k SR in the US this year. So get them while they are hot.
Krugerrand
Meow
Maybe the more important thing to remember is the Tesla mission and that Elon is well aware of price sensitive human beings. He’ll price the Model Y (and the pickup) at the lowest price points Tesla can afford.
K_Dizzle
Member
Good the last thing I want tesla to do is fade like Apple after taking over the industry.
On a side note is it possible that the GC was hired to lead the maxwell purchase? Or maybe some other project, maybe SEC interaction?
Krugerrand
Meow
And not just ICEs but every other possible EV startup and EV vehicle. SA now has a NIO is bad news for Tesla article up.
Does not matter, everything Tesla does or does not do is bad for Tesla and everything anyone else does or does not do is bad for Tesla. I hear Baskin Robbins has a new flavor of ice cream called Tesla Explosion. It’s also bad news for Tesla, as is the rain in Mumbi tomorrow.
It’s so ridiculous and pathetic. If only my super power of blowing people up with my mind existed...
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Until an accident happens. We demand the kind of accuracy from machines that humans can't even dream of and are never asked to prove. We have already seen that with Uber. If a human caused that accident, it wouldn't be news.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
May be we are talking somewhat different timelines.
SR is needed for Tesla to continue selling 400k 3s a year. Infact most of those might be SR, rather than MR. Also, I'm not even sure why you think they can definitely sell 150k MR+ in NA.
BTW, that $50k Model S is the reason Musk has to make a $35k 3.
Mechanical engineering background. Went back to school to get his JD/MBA from USC.
This looks like it is the new way of doing things at Tesla. Promote young executives from within. What they lack in seasoning, they make up in youthful energy, commitment to the cause, and area expertise. Denholm as Chairman of the Board. Kirkhorn as CFO. Chang as General Counsel.
You would literally have to pay me to own that thing.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I believe they can sell 150k MR+ in NA because they have sold ~140k MR+ in NA in the last 2 QTRs. Granted, some was excess demand from tax credits and from reservation holders, but I suspect that demand will only increase as more people become acquainted with the best car ever made.
Just saying, dont expect wide availability of the 35k SR. I could be wrong, but most will be sold in China, not the US.
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