Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gene]

There are TONs of audiophile equipment that is solely intended for ~5% of the population in terms of price. I mean, half the stuff that gets reviewed on Stereophile is probably like that. Cheapest Wilson Audio speakers now start at $15k a pair.

Wilson Audio Specialties Sabrina loudspeaker

Yeah but the Wilson speakers are not the best if you prefer music over novelty. Harbeth of UK make the best, most natural speakers. I am a pro violinist performing regularly, I'm submersed in live, acoustic music for hours daily. Wilson sound like big hifi, Harbeth are less expensive, have taken the hi-end industry awards, and Harbeth actually sounds like real music: https://generubinaudio.com/shop?olsPage=t/harbeth-speakers

 

[Joe F]

Given age, girth, overall stiffness, I had to get in and out of an M3 before final purchase. I had already driven a Model S where the same issue existed. Now I'm "relearning" how to twist after side-saddle sit. Getting the last leg in is still a problem but a hand helps.

If I can do it almost anyone can. When TSLA hits $4,000 if I last that long (and still driving) will probably upgrade to an MX if refreshed.

Yeah, I’m almost with you on that problem as well, but it’s all forgotten once the door closes. Wife has problems with it too, but manages. While I toyed with the thought of the new roadster, that’s probably going to be worse, so will wait to see how the Y fares.

Sister-in-law though? Refuses to ride in the S. But in her defense, a lifetime of being a nurse has left her with major physical problems that the contortions required is too painful. We have to drive my wife’s hybrid Camry then. I absolutely hate driving it.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Model S will be raised to 162mph too

 

[Artful Dodger]

Exactly, and that's why I think it's a terminology problem: different usages of "demand". Elon seems to use "demand" to mean "consumers who'd love to be" or "should be" customers... without reference to price. Broadly that's ok: words are flexible. But it isn't the classical econ definition, is it?

The classical econ. def'n would be "latent demand":

a product or service that doesn't exist that customers would buy if it did exist. In other words, it is a customer need that is unmet by currently available products on the market.​

The $35K Model 3 targets this specific latent demand: Cost

Things that could technically be built but are too expensive to be viable. An innovation that suddenly reduces costs can make new products possible. For example, the costs of launching spacecraft into space have been reduced with time allowing for new commercial opportunities.​

Sort'a sounds like Elon's M.O. don't it? Say, I wonder if this came up while he was earning his Economics Degree at Wharton?

 

[EVNow]

Yeah but the Wilson speakers are not the best if you prefer music over novelty. Harbeth of UK make the best, most natural speakers. I am a pro violinist performing regularly, I'm submersed in live, acoustic music for hours daily. Wilson sound like big hifi, Harbeth are less expensive, have taken the hi-end industry awards, and Harbeth actually sounds like real music: https://generubinaudio.com/shop?olsPage=t/harbeth-speakers

Not to get too OT, but since my preference is vocal (Indian) classical music - I like Martin Logan. I have found them to be unbeatable in vocal range (at their price anyway). Wilson is what one bought to show they can afford expensive speakers

 

[MartinAustin]

Never seen so many FUDsters over in the comment section of .

Tesla slashes retail employee compensation, seemingly pushing them out instead of layoffs

That site no longer has value for me... it's just a webclick farm

 

[Antares Nebula]

Here's what Elon said in the recent interview:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

'Elon Musk: Oh so that's good point actually [inaudible]. We Were first making sure that anyone who placed a reservation early absolutely has priority so any any early reservation holders will absolutely get priority as they should for the $35,000 Model 3 for sure."​

One plausible way to give them priority with new orders open as well is to wait a few days and then assign those cars first. I'd expect the delivery estimate to be recalculated then - sometime next week.

Then the 2-4 weeks must mean for reservation holders. And depending on how many of those opt to order. There is going to be a wide delta on this. Will be interesting to see how the delivery timeline changes. Tesla just unleashed the floodgates. It's a do or die moment. We are now going to see what is the true demand for this revolutionary car.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why is the report of a 50% shares/ 50%cash setlement election by Tesla during the Early Conversion period even being questionned?

Dilution. Tesla didn't issue any additional common stock. Hull/Bloomberg said that they planned to do so, without presenting any evidence of their claim, and against the guidance of the Company.

 

[dondy]

That's interesting, what's the source of this?

I suppose you have asked about Panasonic. current commercial prices Panasonic offers are around 30% (>) less then in 2014.
I heard about renewing contract with 18650 from acquaintances working in american Panasonic. Consider that a wild rumor.

P.S. Battery price drops (actually fluctuations) were one of the essential reasons why Daimler was so damn stupid with their own battery development. Financially they were "loosing unnecessary" money and on paper they are much better with short term contracts.
In reality the progress with battery designs means constant shortage and price wars.

Btw. I also have heard that S and X will keep this form-factor of batteries for significant time and the change would require general redesign of the chassis. "After Semi".

About FSD. It was a kick-starter campaign. I didn't bother with Tesla at those times but I expect they needed client money to cushion finances for the initial research.
Seeing experience of Musk with mass media, I would dig first to find actual Musk quotes in context about FSD.
On the other hand it would be obvious for anybody with basic understanding of data analysis that the last crucial 5% would take 95% of the research-training time. so they needed to provide clear expectation date of at least 5 and realistic 8-10 years for road ready implementation. Would they get enough money to be where they are now if they did that? I don't know. Maybe.

 

[Bet TSLA]

it would not be possible to manage the business

Hmm. Somehow Apple manages.

 

[Tenable]

I mostly agree.

But those employed at Tesla giving Test drives would mostly disagree.

There is a price to the chaos.

Including the feeling that maybe Tesla doesn't offer careers but only temporary employment. Is this 3 or 4 rounds of job cuts at Tesla in the last 12 months?

I was speaking to staff at a Dallas gallery recently. They expressed a love for the cars, but fear working for the company. One person in sales when I made a comment about Elon hating stock traders said “well he hates us to you know, sales people.” What they are doing with rapid succession layoffs seems terrible for morale imo.

 

[kyzhk]

There's protest going on in China about the price cut ranging from ~7k to 50k USD.

I saw similar complaints on reddit from owners in Taiwan and Australia...Not sure how I feel about this - sure, the owners purchased the vehicles at a price agreed by both party, but this is just human psychology.

I thought Tesla should have learned better from last time with the model 3 performance price cut and with Fred pulling a fred on tesla...


BTW - what does everyone think about the across the board price cut? I believe Tesla must have modeled impact to product mix with the price cut. At the end of the day I think the pricing change was done to maximize net cash flow given production capacity (i.e. improving take rate of higher margin model by reducing price gap from a lower trim, thus improving total net cash flow).

 

[Antares Nebula]

TESLA MODEL 3 VS PORSCHE GT2 RS DRAG RACE ON MONACO PIER!! | NICO ROSBERG | eVLOG

NICO ROSBERG was the 2016 Formula One World Champion. Guess which car wins?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

What is the technique for getting out?

Fall

lol!

Dan

 

[Jays200]

For the same money, less than a year later, I can get a shiny new Samsung S10+ that makes my "new" S9+ feel like a POS. Woe is me. I knew it was going to happen some day.

I did get a good deal on FSD yesterday though

 

[Antares Nebula]

@kyzhk Re price cut: I think people need to stop complaining. It's one thing if it was Apple, which is rolling in cash. Tesla is still basically a startup trying to figure out this new EV/autonomous car market as it goes. For early adopters it's not just about the car, but the mission. Can't think that oh I could have got it cheaper. That money went to supporting the mission. It's actually a paradox: if they didn't buy it back then at that price, it's possible Tesla would not be around today to lower the prices in the first place.

Be proud that you were among the early Tesla adopters. Back in the day, all my friends and family were talking smack when I got my first Mac. They were all window users. Now almost all have Macs and iPhones. Early adopters got street cred and bragging rights. How much is that worth?

As far as if it was the right move for Tesla, I say rip-off the bandage, unleash the Kraken, and see where things land. This is it. Tesla going full tilt. For investors, its boom or bust. That's the way I roll folks!

In Elon we trust. So say we all!

 

[SebastianR]

I'm paying attention to Alpha Hat only now. This looks interesting … they claim better accuracy for the quarter than InsideEVs. Not sure what they are talking about in terms of "GPS activity pings from anonymized cellular devices at Tesla delivery centers". Do they have people snooping in front of Tesla delivery centers all over the US 24/7 ?

The way I understood them is, that they simply buy location data from carriers. If you want the slightly less creepy/horrible version of this:
https://techcrunch.com/2019/01/09/us-cell-carriers-still-selling-your-location-data/

Why do CNBC option traders always tell people to buy puts when TSLA is under 300. I know at least three times last year when they recommended it that they were wrong. [...] I've even see Montana Skeptic and other SA authors tell people to go all in short at 300, but refrain or be careful when it is above 350. This may also be part of wacked short strategy trying to go for the kill when the shares are down, while saving ammo when the shares are up.

Call me a sucker, but I don't think this needs to be malicious - many bulls feel (emotionally) more comfortable to buy when the stock is high and worry about catching a falling knife when the stock is low. Similar mechanisms are at play with shorts, too.

Of course this emotional response is what kills both shorts and longs. Having said this, I don't mind if shorts are buying at 300 - that will provide more upwards pressure when the stock inevitably rises afterwards...

 

[Artful Dodger]

That site no longer has value for me... it's just a webclick farm

You can go directly to the comments (and cheat redFay out of his click-baited gains) with this direct link:

Disqus - Tesla slashes retail employee compensation, seemingly pushing them out instead of layoffs

 

[Fact Checking]

Btw. I also have heard that S and X will keep this form-factor of batteries for significant time and the change would require general redesign of the chassis. "After Semi".

Thanks for all the other info as well!

That Tesla has made the right decision to keep the 18,650 cells in S/X is the accepted consensus here on TMC too meanwhile (after a short 2170 craze):

• 18,650 cell mass density has improved together with 2170 mass density improvements. Teardowns confirmed this.
• 2170 has better volumetric density, which matters on the smaller Model 3, but doesn't matter nearly as much on the S/X which are large enough to host the cells.
• Both Tesla and Panasonic have significant capital invested in the ~8 GWh/year 18,650 manufacturing capacity and pack assembly lines, which they should not and will not throw away.
• I.e. the S/X is using the highest grade chemistry available, 18,650 cells are future-proof and there's no trade-off for customers.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Totally off topic...

Currently watching the live feed from SpaceX of the Crew Dragon test flight docking with the ISS.

This is so cool!

Dan