Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[trix]

Do you guys think if there are enough ppl buying EAP and/or upgrading to FSD will bring Tesla to Q1 profit? I'm starting to think maybe that is a real possibility.

 

[EVNow]

Model 3 forecast reduced, downgrade of price target from $283 to $260.

48k is an interesting forecast. 93k was the Q4 delivery number. So, almost 50% lower.

For this to be true, EU deliveries have to go quite badly and US demand has to be really low.

Not just that - assuming the production isn't much lower than Q4, almost 35k cars have to be in shipping waiting shipment. That looks too high - so is there any indication of production slowing down significantly ?

I still expect some 10k to be in transit to EU/China. Transit to US customers unchanged from last time (7k ?). If the production was reduced by 15k (!) - that still leaves 65k as the delivery. IOW, for the delivery to be < 50k, we should have missed something significant - assuming AlphaHat numbers are not wrong.

You can take InsideEV numbers and probably come up with a low delivery count. Even this ignoring 5k number from Canada.

Model 3 : 12k + 8k = 20k
S & X : 3.6k + 2.4k = 6K

(16 ships = 40k out of which only ~50% gets delivered !)
EU = 12k
China = 10k

 

[Krugerrand]

They didn't announce reservations for the past two products (Roadster, Semi)

Media did that for them. Roadster Founder cars sold out - that was a given. Doesn’t really matter how many regular reservations of it because super car.

Media had reported Semi reservation numbers from all the big companies. We can probably add a few more. Forget what the tally was, but companies with buy a few and try them out before the bigger orders are placed, no?

 

[Krugerrand]

Let's be specific here: Elon announced that detailed specs & pricing will be provided.

Elon Musk on Twitter

So if I were Tesla, I would make this different from the Model 3 launch: I would take at least 2.5k USD and announce that of course you can't compare that to the Model 3. Then I would indicate timeframes for which options / which countries come first (5k or even 10k for signature deliveries)

That way you avoid the 1:1 comparison, get an even better idea how impatient people will be waiting for what.

I would give the option to pre-order to destroy ICE demand: remember the BMW 3 Series started to tank after Model 3 pre-orders were open.

Whatever. I’ll be placing a reservation even if they aren’t taking them. Don’t care. They will take my money, if I have to march down with cash in hand. So let it be written, so let it be done.

 

[mongo]

Media did that for them. Roadster Founder cars sold out - that was a given. Doesn’t really matter how many regular reservations of it because super car.

Media had reported reservation numbers from all the big companies. We can probably add a few more. Forget what the tally was, but companies with buy a few and try them out before the bigger orders are placed, no?

Are you sure on the Founders Edition Roadster? You can still select it on the web site...

 

[adiggs]

Do you guys think if there are enough ppl buying EAP and/or upgrading to FSD will bring Tesla to Q1 profit? I'm starting to think maybe that is a real possibility.

I got mine!

 

[EVNow]

Do you guys think if there are enough ppl buying EAP and/or upgrading to FSD will bring Tesla to Q1 profit? I'm starting to think maybe that is a real possibility.

No.

<Not An Advice>
I'd not invest assuming Q1 profit.

</Not An Advice>​

 

[Fact Checking]

It's unfortunate that Tesla's PR department hasn't been trying to manage media expectations that the reservation count after the MY reveal are likely to be significantly lower than in 2016.

Let's try out your suggestion and do that:

• "Tesla admits to shocking drop in upcoming reservations count."
• "Tesla PR officials outline worrying expectations of reservation cliff."
• "Tesla walking back bold reservation claims."
• "In attempt to save face, Tesla plays down reservation numbers."
• "Tesla hitting air pocket of reservations."
• "Clouds gathering over Tesla's once formidable reservation lead."
• "Can Tesla ever surpass Porsche's 20,000 pre-orders?"

Any other questions about why it might not be a good idea for Tesla PR to attempt to "manage" a dominantly hostile media that is acting in bad faith and over which Tesla has very little influence?

 

[Pras]

48k is an interesting forecast. 93k was the Q4 delivery number. So, almost 50% lower.

For this to be true, EU deliveries have to go quite badly and US demand has to be really low.

Not just that - assuming the production isn't much lower than Q4, almost 35k cars have to be in shipping waiting shipment. That looks too high - so is there any indication of production slowing down significantly ?

I still expect some 10k to be in transit to EU/China. Transit to US customers unchanged from last time (7k ?). If the production was reduced to by 15k (!) - that still leaves 65k as the delivery. IOW, for the delivery to be < 50k, we should have missed something significant - assuming AlphaHat numbers are not wrong.

You can take InsideEV numbers and probably come up with a low delivery count. Even this ignoring 5k number from Canada.

Model 3 : 12k + 8k = 20k
S & X : 3.6k + 2.4k = 6K

(16 ships = 40k out of which only ~50% gets delivered !)
EU = 12k
China = 10k

March last two weeks are the key for US numbers. One of the reasons why the delivery estimate is remaining at 2 weeks is to potentially redirect cars intended for Europe/ China. Then there is the SR and SR+ angle and the recent price drop and then increase. So it is too premature for anyone including MS to conclude.

 

[Krugerrand]

Are you sure on the Founders Edition Roadster? You can still select it on the web site...

I must be mistaken then if it’s still an option. Tesla didn’t increase the number of units, did they?

 

[gene]

Let's be specific here: Elon announced that detailed specs & pricing will be provided.

Elon Musk on Twitter

So if I were Tesla, I would make this different from the Model 3 launch: I would take at least 2.5k USD and announce that of course you can't compare that to the Model 3. Then I would indicate timeframes for which options / which countries come first (5k or even 10k for signature deliveries)

That way you avoid the 1:1 comparison, get an even better idea how impatient people will be waiting for what.

I would give the option to pre-order to destroy ICE demand: remember the BMW 3 Series started to tank after Model 3 pre-orders were open.

Except I would make the deposit $1,000, like the Model 3. Otherwise we will get endless FUD about Tesla is running out of money and needed to make deposits $2500.

 

[EVNow]

One of the reasons why the delivery estimate is remaining at 2 weeks is to potentially redirect cars intended for Europe/ China.

You can't redirect China/EU cars to US. They are different spec - and have already been shipped. I expect Tesla to be making only US cars now (no more ships at SF).

 

[mongo]

I must be mistaken then if it’s still an option. Tesla didn’t increase the number of units, did they?

Not that I know of. Of course, I didn't actually try the link ...

 

[Krugerrand]

Not that I know of. Of course, I didn't actually try the link ...

Chicken.

 

[EVNow]

Except I would make the deposit $1,000, like the Model 3. Otherwise we will get endless FUD about Tesla is running out of money and needed to make deposits $2500.

But you can't stop the FUD ! They need to make decisions based on other factors. Anything can be spun negatively - it doesn't even require much creativity. They are already saying Model Y is being "suddenly" unveiled because they need cash.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Do you guys think if there are enough ppl buying EAP and/or upgrading to FSD will bring Tesla to Q1 profit? I'm starting to think maybe that is a real possibility.

Isn't FSD revenue deferred for the time being?

 

[scaesare]

Anecdotal: I talked to a trucker online who hauls for Telsa. He seemed like a fairly anti-EV person but said he liked the Semi once he got used to the layout and really enjoyed how powerful and smooth it was.

Wait, how did a guy who just hauls cars for Tesla get to drive the semi??

 

[gene]

A recent dog walk in the neighborhood (all two blocks) allowed me to note five Toyota RAV4s of very recent vintage.

I'll be most interested in comparing the characteristics of these guys to the Model Y: dimensions, pricing, amenities.

Difference between Ohio and California is, when I walk my dog the three block radius walk in my "middle class" (for this area) neighborhood, I pass 3 Midnight Silver Model 3, 1 black Model 3, 1 blue Model 3 and one Dolphin Grey Model S. That's six Tesla's in all. Not to forget 2 Leaf's, 2 Bolts, and one Fiat 500e.

In addition, solar panels abound!

 

[scaesare]

I disagree with plenty of @gringotuanis comments and points of view, but there's no need to be dismissive, demeaning, or rude to people. Please take on the serious content and serious ideas that you don't agree with, seriously, and add to the quality of the board for everybody, rather than going for cheap humor points at somebody's expense.

You mean like this?:

That's an understatement. Tesla is like a chicken with it's head cut off. Elon needs to get his s_-#&# together. I could manage Tesla better guaranteed.

...from the guy who previously crowed:

I like this opportunity to state IQ. I'm greater than 130 IQ.

If he isn't asking for a little ribbing or dismissive replies at the very least, if not outright derision at the most, then he might do with developing a little circumspection, eh?

 

[Fact Checking]

Wait, how did a guy who just hauls cars for Tesla get to drive the semi??

At Tesla there's near unlimited upwards social mobility!