Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

OT weekend:
Thanks for chiming in. Hearing the opinion from one of the bigger demographics for the truck is valuable and I hope that Tesla reached out in some way similar to how they did for the Semi. My understanding is they consulted with a number of drivers/dispatchers/owners while in the design stage. I'd like to see what type of feedback they got from the twitter offer to send in your ideas.

Your concerns about the macho image is probably stronger for this vehicle type than most. I remember when Ram redesigned the grill back in the 90's and sales skyrocketed as it just looked stronger, bolder, tougher, I don't know. I really hope the truck that's meant for the masses doesn't throw the baby out with the bathwater. On the other hand, as a disrupter and first principles philosophy, I would love it if they could re-invent some of the traditional thinking that has kept most other trucks stagnant and similar, unwilling to take risks. Different for the sake of being different only works if it's also better. I think they can do it.

What do some of your like minded friends think not only of Tesla but would they buy a Tesla truck or any EV? I ask because I have a few friends with trucks and some of them are almost disgusted by the thought. I had a co-worker bragging about some new Hemi Ram with gobs of HP and Torque and a 0-60 time of maybe 4 seconds or it could have been 1/4 mile times but regardless, I mentioned the towing capacity of the Tesla truck at 300,000#'s and he kind of slithered back to his office and avoids the topic now.
It's this type of mindset that I hope the truck will just blow out every spec from all the competition just to watch them stammer with "yeah, but, but, something, something, bankruptcy".

I’ve always owned a pickup and always Dodge. 1/2 and 3/4 tons. I’m down for the Tesla pickup. I’m so excited for whatever they design and I’m heavily leaning toward make it as radical as they want. I know lots of truck owners who would, and will, lust over something that stands out with that trademark instant torque, regen braking and a crap of towing power.

 

[EVNow]

If you dont like his response, here's some others

-Vin Q1 registrations.....throughout jan, feb
-2 different fund managers have met with Tesla IR over the past week and said Tesla was selling every car they make
- source carson who has confirmed weekly model 3 battery pack production at 6.5/week and going higher

Simply put, they wouldn't be continuing to register vins for model 3 and making that many 3 battery pacls weekly if they knew incoming orders were weak

So, what is your guess for how many 3s will be delivered in Q1 ? 6.5x13 ~ 84.5k. Lets say 10 k in transit. 75k 3s delivered in Q1 - more than Q4 ?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

So you're saying you got two different invoices, with two different invoice numbers (about 1700 apart), for the same purchase?
That IS interesting...
Appreciate following along with your buying experience... Good info... Thank you..

The second invoice is for the car being delivered to him and the first invoice for the one sitting at the bottom of the Atlantic

 

[NicoV]

So you're saying you got two different invoices, with two different invoice numbers (about 1700 apart), for the same purchase?
That IS interesting...
Appreciate following along with your buying experience... Good info... Thank you..

That's how it goes when you order a Model 3. You should try it once, you'll experience it for yourself!
Shortly after ordering you get an invoice for the deposit, and later when your car is almost ready to be delivered you get an invoice for the rest of the car, minus the deposit.

 

[jerry33]

OK - that is a long way away.

So, until then, I want Tesla to build assembly lines that can make 3 & Y in any sequence to match production to demand.

I have no problem with retooling the line for multi-car assembly when they are in a position to do so without affecting sales and deliveries. Doing it now while they are selling all they can make will just hurt deliveries and profits.

 

[RobStark]

The one other reason is that if there was a demand issue, Tesla would be advertising. They aren't.

How about delivering to RHD markets... UK,Ireland, Australia,New Zeeland and Japan.

 

[jerry33]

How about delivering to RHD markets... UK,Ireland, Australia,New Zeeland and Japan.

Sure, that would come before advertising.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Tesla Could Be On Fast Track, J.D. Power Says

"Forbes.com: Why does J.D. Power think Tesla is poised for a sales surge?

Jominy: The size of the segments and price points that Tesla is entering is five time larger than the spaces they had been playing in. Even if Tesla captures only a fraction of the share levels in the new segments and price points, volume stands to grow significantly.

Forbes.com: It appears the number of consumers willing to consider an EV has grown sharply recently. Why?

Jominy: The attributes of Tesla are such that they have highly desirable models and a cool factor—and they just happen to be electric. The range is such that anxiety is quite low and the supercharger network further alleviates that concern. If you can get a sexy product that isn’t the same as your previous three vehicles, why wouldn’t you?"

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So, what is your guess for how many 3s will be delivered in Q1 ? 6.5x13 ~ 84.5k. Lets say 10 k in transit. 75k 3s delivered in Q1 - more than Q4 ?

Wouldn't be surprised if vehicles in transit is more like 15-17 k pr possibly higher. Also i take a week off production for random days where production is halted like holidays. So production around 75-78k with deliveries around 63k.There's a report that vehicles are starting to fill up port 80 again and if that's true, it means they are continuing to ship cars overseas during march, even if it is at a slower rate. Forget the name of the site, Alpha something has higher delivery numbers for us in jan and feb.

 

[Krugerrand]

On that note I wish model Y was cheaper. I can get a 2 year old Nissan Rogue for low $20s. Almost half the price of Y

Why would you compare pricing of a new Y with a 2 year old Rogue? Makes no sense. Wait until there are 2 year old Ys.

 

[EVNow]

I have no problem with retooling the line for multi-car assembly when they are in a position to do so without affecting sales and deliveries. Doing it now while they are selling all they can make will just hurt deliveries and profits.

Yes, they will have to build the new line in GF1 to be useable for both Y & 3 and then upgrade the line in Fremont.

 

[Beltsbear]

On that note I wish model Y was cheaper. I can get a 2 year old Nissan Rogue for low $20s. Almost half the price of Y

That’s surprising that a mediocre used vehicle is cheaper then a much better new one.

 

[Smokey4141]

One was for the deposit, the other is his final invoice before he picks up his car. But I’m sure your could make that mean Tesla is actually double counting cars.

I get the two invoices part... Not sure I get why two different numbers??
A deposit invoice, and a balance due invoice, both with same invoice number, just makes more sense to me...

And I'm not saying Tesla is double-counting cars...
But if someone IS trying to track European sales, and IS using Invoice numbers to reflect each invoice as an individual sale, (thinking that Invoice #10,000 means there were 9,999 car sales before that one), then that seems kind-of important...
No biggie...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Forget the name of the site, Alpha something has higher delivery numbers for us in jan and feb.

That was Alpha Hat. Definitely not Seeking Alpha

 

[Smokey4141]

If you dont like his response, here's some others

-Vin Q1 registrations.....throughout jan, feb
-2 different fund managers have met with Tesla IR over the past week and said Tesla was selling every car they make
- source carson who has confirmed weekly model 3 battery pack production at 6.5/week and going higher

Simply put, they wouldn't be continuing to register vins for model 3 and making that many 3 battery pacls weekly if they knew incoming orders were weak

That's how it goes when you order a Model 3. You should try it once, you'll experience it for yourself!
Shortly after ordering you get an invoice for the deposit, and later when your car is almost ready to be delivered you get an invoice for the rest of the car, minus the deposit.

Thanks, Nico.. Two invoices makes perfect sense, just surprised there were two different invoice ~numbers~......
But thank you for the follow-up...

 

[shrspeedblade]

You are basically agreeing with my point that it was a bad presentation. I think Elon has to be more careful with his time projections now that the SEC is watching closely or he was just kinda depressed or off that night. I don't think it was a deliberate attempt to make it ho hum. He just didn't seem excited and I don't know why. I suppose getting some preorder info would be helpful to Tesla in designing the final stages of it or to gauge demand but it seems like they should have done a better presentation based in how important model Y will be to Tesla's future. Maybe trying not to destroy m3 demand by keeping it ho hum?

That's kind of how I read it. It's not like it was that long ago that they were playing up the S/X vs. the 3 because it is reasonably smart business to play up what you currently have for sale and play down what is coming in the future. I mean, he DOES engage in rocket science but this isn't exactly in that category.

The first Elon presentation I saw was the X being delivered IIRC, the Y presentation only reinforced the opinion I formed back then: few people are great at everything and at least even I'm a better presenter than the guy landing rockets and revolutionizing the auto industry!

Edit: they don't need to play up the Y, the specs and performance for the price speak for themselves.

 

[Lucky_Man]

This is an interesting observation. The traditional pickup truck look was due to fundamental design considerations: (need for a large engine, and thus a large front hood), and a large flat back bed for storage/hauling. This resulted in a very simple and masculine look.

But with EVs, there is no longer the need for a large front engine and hood, and so design considerations may be different here. Still need the large flat back bed. So the question then becomes what is the optimal design. What would nature come up with? The traditional pickup design need not have a monopoly on what is considered powerful and masculine. Tesla, with a new EV powertrain, can redefine the pickup and maybe even consign the traditional look to the dustbins of history.

Hmmm. No engine required. With a cab-forward design, we could have a comfortable crew-cab for 5 or 6 - AND - the ability to carry full 4x8-foot sheets of material.

 

[BornToFly]

On that note I wish model Y was cheaper. I can get a 2 year old Nissan Rogue for low $20s. Almost half the price of Y

I can get a used bicycle for $50....

 

[Remus]

Camcord starts at $24k. Tops out at ~$38k. But Toyonda dealers discount unlike Tesla.

And most Americans shop by monthly payment not 6-10 year TCO.

That price has increased a lot in the past 10 years with the cars not getting much better. And more people buying rogue that cost more.

With regulations against emissions got tightened around the globe, their margins are under more and more pressure, and they can't increase price as EVs are breathing down their neck.

 

[Sparky]

First, I'm trapped by imagery of the cyber-punk truck.
It has many of the things I hate and love about trucks, distilled in to lust.
The hate part:
Over-sized indulgence needed by most owners like me for 2% of their lives (I made % that up).
Can't see around them when trailing in my Model 3 on the coast highway.
Takes two parking spaces (and two supercharger spots?). In the outback of the country, ok. In the city, a big FU to everyone trying to get to work and find a place to park.

The love/lust part:
I'm at the tippy top of the food chain! F-150s will scatter like rodents.
She's sooo cyber-sexy, black, silver, mysterious and brittle (lots of titanium).
Complicated: Blade-runner dystopia meets Green New Deal.

ok, ok. take my money!
Lust is a desperate mistress.
...a rag and a bone and a... cyberpunk, 1000HP, 4-sec 0-60, exquisite Sandcrawler.

...I'd rather buy Tesla's pickup.

As long as it looks like a pickup and not a spaceship.

That's just it. Elon doesn't care if few are purchased. He'll be air-mailing them to Mars to build the first colony.