Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

That is unfortunately the case until Tesla comes out with an adaptor. I suspect this adaptor will be easy to make because CCS and Tesla charging are not very far apart technically.

Actually, I believe that's not the case with CCS DC fast charging.

At the PHY layer CCS is PLC based communication, and Superchargers are CAN based. That's why Tesla produced Chademo adapters relatively quickly, as it's also CAN based.

In addition, I understand CCS DC also requires power from the vehicle-side to operate for initial integrity checks/handshake, and it's not clear that's available on at least the original TSLA-1 connector...

 

[scaesare]

Darn good stab at a render.

 

[jerry33]

Part of the big reason body-on-frame is preferred for trucks is because you can remove and replace the bed with equipment if it is a work truck.

Agreed, but that's not an SUV

 

[Buckminster]

I’ve been wondering if a used X might make the most sense for me now. Only have 2 kids but if we want to travel with my wife’s parents...

So, I haven't met your wife's parents as far as I know but I'm pretty sure you got mixed up here. The X is bigger. You're looking for the M3 - space between the kids for a beer cooler.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Actually, I believe that's not the case with CCS DC fast charging.

At the PHY layer CCS is PLC based communication, and Superchargers are CAN based. That's why Tesla produced Chademo adapters relatively quickly, as it's also CAN based.

In addition, I understand CCS DC also requires power from the vehicle-side to operate for initial integrity checks/handshake, and it's not clear that's available on at least the original TSLA-1 connector...

Informative although I have limited understanding of the terminology.

So what is your take on why the model 3 is not compatible with the Chademo adapter.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I would be very tempted to order a MY for 2021 delivery today, if only the options included non-Premium Upgrades Package PUP, and Standard Range SR, currently not available for order. I take it this order limitation is Worldwide, not just Canada.
For this reason, I see the order rate far lower than that of M3 whereby you could reserve the base model (non-PUP and SR) from the reveal date. Very smart on Tesla's part.
I'll keep an eye out for when the non-PUP SR version of the MY is available for order.

 

[jerry33]

Informative although I have limited understanding of the terminology.

So what is your take on why the model 3 is not compatible with the Chademo adapter.

Not a clue. Sorry.

 

[VValleyEV]

It's The Tesla Model Y Versus The Competition - Now That There Actually Is Some, Finally

"Despite his release of patents and overall encouragement for competing carmakers to fully embrace the EV space, Tesla clearly remains far in the lead, both in terms of the number of cars produced, the tech needed to operate them and the marketing of the vehicles. The fact that it's still a struggle to even come up with competitors that meet Tesla on price and performance is telling. While the Audi e-tron, Jaguar I-PACE and Hyundai Kona Electric are all likely to be competent performers and will do their part to keep moving the needle on EV adoption, none yet truly compete directly with Tesla's latest effort.

The Audi and Jaguar offerings are clearly premium vehicles out of reach of most middle-class consumers and will likely sell in tiny numbers. The fairly unremarkable Hyundai is actually the highlight here, competing at least on price and utility with the midrange Model Y, yet it is buried within Hyundai's lineup and marketing efforts. It's also still far, far off the mark in terms of performance and innovation, both of which are a focus for Tesla and are clearly motivating forces for buyers. Why the realization of combining and producing electric cars with those factors - at a reasonable price - didn't happen at major automakers the world over with the sudden success of the then-premium Model S will be studied at business schools for decades to come."

FINALLY.

Is this the first mainstream forward-looking review of Tesla’s products vs its BEV competition, without the usual dish of tiresome FUD?

 

[winfield100]

Yeah, we're about to enter a really exciting period with SpaceX Lots of big milestones for Starship Hopper, Falcon Heavy, and crewed spaceflight over the next several months.

remember the grasshopper launch?
1,000ft up, hover!, land!

 

[Sancho]

This is because the bear thesis, in all its fractured components, are ultimately conflicted (and contradictory). Thus you have the principle of explosion, whereby from a single contradiction, any statement follows. And so bears put forth anything and everything under the sun as arguments against Tesla.

Witness that for shorts, it doesn't matter whether model 3 ramps successfully or not. If it doesn't, then they say that Tesla failed to reach their 10000/wk goal. If they do reach or go beyond that goal, then even better because (according to shorts) every car they sell is at a loss, so Tesla will lose even more money. But should somehow Tesla actually make a profit, all the more better for the shorts, because then everyone can see what a ridiculous PE ratio Tesla has.

So for shorts, if Tesla makes less cars, they (Tesla) are screwed. If they make more cars, they're screwed. Make no profit, they're screwed. Make profit, they're screwed. More automation, they're screwed. Less automation, they're screwed. Delay of new models, they're screwed. More new models, they're screwed. Raise capital, they're screwed. Fail to raise capital, they're screwed. They're just f****** screwed no matter what they do. Easy peasy, Tesla is the best short in the world.

Principle of explosion - Wikipedia

Exactly. Which also proves why we should ignore all of it. The real money remains on the sidelines. It will come in waves when enough large investors believe:

1. Demand is sustainable
2. Margin is sustainable

Q2? Q3? Unlikely to be later than that unless there are fundamental problems we can’t foresee.

 

[SpeedGoat]

It's The Tesla Model Y Versus The Competition - Now That There Actually Is Some, Finally

"Despite his release of patents and overall encouragement for competing carmakers to fully embrace the EV space, Tesla clearly remains far in the lead, both in terms of the number of cars produced, the tech needed to operate them and the marketing of the vehicles. The fact that it's still a struggle to even come up with competitors that meet Tesla on price and performance is telling. While the Audi e-tron, Jaguar I-PACE and Hyundai Kona Electric are all likely to be competent performers and will do their part to keep moving the needle on EV adoption, none yet truly compete directly with Tesla's latest effort.

The Audi and Jaguar offerings are clearly premium vehicles out of reach of most middle-class consumers and will likely sell in tiny numbers. The fairly unremarkable Hyundai is actually the highlight here, competing at least on price and utility with the midrange Model Y, yet it is buried within Hyundai's lineup and marketing efforts. It's also still far, far off the mark in terms of performance and innovation, both of which are a focus for Tesla and are clearly motivating forces for buyers. Why the realization of combining and producing electric cars with those factors - at a reasonable price - didn't happen at major automakers the world over with the sudden success of the then-premium Model S will be studied at business schools for decades to come."

Stacking Tesla’s Model Y Against Its Electric SUV Competition

This contains a decent sortable comparison table to the CUV competition.

A comparison based purely on the capabilities of the vehicles themselves shows the Hyundai Kona and Kia Nero to be credible competition for the Model Y SR.

Kona 258 miles 6.6 seconds $36.5k
Nero 236 miles 7.8 seconds $40k
Model Y 230 miles 5.9 seconds $39k

The Hyundai/Kia offer less performance but greater range and are incrementally cheaper.

At the higher end only the Volvo Polestar 2 appears to be even remotely competitive:

Model Y LR 300 miles 5.5 seconds $47k
Model Y AWD 280 miles 4.8 seconds $51k
Pole Star 2 275 miles 4.7 seconds $55k
Model Y P 280 miles 3.5 seconds $60k
I Pace 240 miles 4.5 seconds $69.5k
E-tron 248 miles 5.5 seconds $69.5k
Mission E CT 310 miles 5.5 seconds $74k
EQC 279 miles 4.9 seconds $79.5K

The Volvo's range/speed are similar to the Model Y AWD but roughly $4k more expensive. Nothing else is even in the discussion. The next cheapest competitor is the I-Pace, which is $18.5k more expensive than the Model Y AWD with 40 miles less range.

I have no idea how Mercedes plans to sell the EQC for $79k... it matches the Model Y AWD's range and acceleration but costs $28.5k more. (more than 50% markup)

This comparison ignores Tesla's supercharger network, an advantage none of its competitors have anything remotely similar to, and all branding, which will work in Tesla's favor in some cases and against it in others, particularly when competing against the German brands.

This also ignores Tesla's likely advantage in charging speed. All of the higher-end competitors have far larger batteries and are far less efficient. This will give the Model Y a significant advantage on most of these when it comes down to miles/minute charging metrics.

Finally it ignores the question of production volume and whether the competition is actually able to turn a profit at these price points. There can be little doubt Tesla will be producing the Model Y at high volume and making a significant profit.

If I have time later I might compile the stats on vehicle dimensions and usable cargo volume.

 

[Intl Professor]

Here is my blasphemy for the new day.

After reading this I wonder if some of the high speed trading firms have stumbled upon "generative modelling" as described here in cosmology and other fields.

This.

How Artificial Intelligence Is Changing Science | Quanta Magazine

If so, it could lead to better forecasts and must already be used by firms dedicated to generating "fake news," FUD.

I've also been unable to imagine what kind of universe we live in by scientists who argue it is a hologram.

That has already been studied in science fiction exploring the idea we live in a computer simulation. Doubtless, this view is the ultimate blasphemy for theologians deeply committed to the ultimate conceit: an anthropological image of God. The referenced article suggests machines will never do creative work, that is sometimes stimulated in humans by boredom and machines never get bored. But what if the universe was created by a bored machine and then humans as another boring diversion? And there is the Boring Company....

But now I Babylon, drifting ever closer to OT and today is Sunday when according to some even God rested!

 

[EVMeister]

^^ Is the actual size of the vehicle and storage not considered a "capability"? Seems odd to compare the Model Y with a fairly compact hatchback like the Kona?

 

[Sparky]

Lemur, the Mid-range 3 is gone. We'll miss ya.

Damn. Yesterday I spent 90 minutes sitting in the 3 with a neighbor who is very interested. Then got my phone out and went through the whole order page as we went through all the options. We converged on the MR as best for her needs. She still hasn't driven a 3 (I offered).
She's in her 70's and requested that I print all the pages out so she could review at home. She knows about the price increase tomorrow night and I almost had her convinced to just do the deposit so she could lock in her price and then cancel if she changed her mind. Oh well, gonna have to walk over with a new printout now.

Funny thing. The "killer app" for her is Dog Mode. She told me she was thinking of the white interior because it might not be as hot for her pooch. I showed her Dog Mode and she was over the moon. Thought it was the cutest/coolest thing she'd ever seen. "Are you sure I don't need to get Full Self Driving to get this?".
You just never know what thing is going to tip the scales.

 

[Svetlin]

I get that Tesla has higher priorities than a few thousand schleps like us in BC. I want Tesla to succeed in a big way. But I will continue to vent because, well, I can. We have been waiting for awhile and it looks like we’ll be waiting a while longer. We’ll probably by the Leaf E-Plus this time to replace Angela’s smart ED and then wait four more years and replace my 2016 Leaf SV with a 3...assuming it has Chademo or CCS. I can’t see Tesla building out the supercharger network 10 fold in BC by then (I wouldn’t) for probably less than 10,000 customers. We are an EV only family so no ICE backup. We thought about renting for those 10 or 12 weekends per year that we tour the Kootenays, interior etc but it’s hard to go back to ice when you have been driving only EV for 4 years. Sigh.

Whine mode off...for a while.

Just move to Kazakhstan. Problem solved.

 

[Smokey4141]

Question: if you wanted to reduce product prices while maintaining profitability, how would YOU do it?

Gross margins are about part costs, labour costs, and depreciation costs relative to the purchase price. Depreciation costs are a function of throughput. Throughput is at a record high. Part costs have been going down. But for some reason you don't want them reducing labour too, despite being clearly able to maintain high throughput without it?

Profitability is about gross margins times volume, minus unrelated costs like SG&A. You apparently don't want them reducing SG&A? Despite the fact that they can clearly move inventory with the vast majority of their market being unable to buy most vehicles? They should maintain high SG&A (something that last year shorts were complaining about how high it was) rather than just moving into more (still waiting) markets and putting up more variants into only-partially-open markets... why?

(Among other demand levers, I should add)

Seriously, what would your recommended strategy be to move into higher-volume/lower-cost price brackets if you don't want them cutting costs and decreasing overhead?

Seriously, get out of here with your "no demand" nonsense. Do you realize that you're talking with someone who's been waiting and waiting (and will be waiting for months more) just to be given an opportunity to buy ANY variant? Have you seen the volume that Norway is moving (in Norway, you can watch the stats in realtime) just from the two most expensive, high-margin variants?

#DemandProblemMyArse

(Oh, and you're also talking to someone who's been waiting for months for their Ford pickup to be fixed because they keep doing this "wait for parts, start to fix it, find something else wrong, wait again" cycle, so don't give me this "Tesla is the only company that repairs can take a long time on" BS. That reminds me, I really should stop by the garage and pester them...)

First, you're "assuming" they're maintaining profitability... You may be right, you may be wrong, but you're just assuming at this point...
And as the ASP gets lower and lower, that seems like a bigger and bigger assumption...

Secondly, my point wasn't that a company (any company) shouldn't always be trying to reduce costs, as we both know they should...
I just don't think that for a company that has a stock price that's based upon it's anticipated exponential growth, Tesla seems to be doing it backwards... Laying off staff, closing sales locations, etc...
For many, particularly for people that compare cars before buying, test drives still seem important...
Reducing those opportunities......seems non-good....

Third, I'm not claiming that ONLY Tesla can be slow in parts and servicing of their cars, just that is IS happening at Tesla, as can be seen by any number of postings here on TMC and Twitter, and that is just one more clue as to the overall situation, and has been for quite a while...
More to your point, I can kinda see how Ford parts could be slower to arrive in Iceland than in the States, but I have no doubt that parts ARE available for your Ford truck... It seems a bit stranger though, that parts for CA built Tesla's, can't even be found in CA sometimes, much less any other state... Seems like that would be pretty easy... And yet it's still an issue for many....
As well, if you need service, and your Advisor says, "I can find an opening for you in May", and it's March, that seems a problem too, no?? Hope it's not important....

And last, not even sure how "get out of here with your no demand nonsense" comes from "I don't have a car, so that proves my demand theory"...
There's PLENTY of new Tesla's for sale here in the States.... Take your pick... They'll make you a deal too.... Seriously...
I even wonder if someone who walked into a European dealership today, with a fist full of Euros, if the dealership could find a car for them for delivery in a few days or so... Would be good to know either way, right?

Regardless, when the time comes and people ask, "I had no clue that could happen....where were the signs??", the signs are all there...
Whether a person chooses to read them or not, that's another matter.... And that was the point of my note to Winston...

Trade safe...

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Just move to Kazakhstan. Problem solved.

I have no idea what that means.

 

[SpeedGoat]

Removal of the MR is a really good sign. Almost assuredly means that the SR margins are good.

It may be a good sign but I have to say there is something of a fatigue factor for me with the ever changing vehicle lineup. We originally bought our M3 LR right when they announced they were discontinuing them. (best vehicle for our purposes, best range and efficiency and no identifiable need for additional performance) They have since re-introduced the LR Model 3, introduced and now discontinued the MR, played with pricing and options more times than I can count, etc.

We are in the market for a Model Y but honestly the continuously evolving pricing and options makes us less likely to put money down now than if we had some confidence that things would stay basically stable.

 

[madodel]

My wife isn't convinced of the size of the Y's 3rd row...

... So now she wants to look at the X. Did not see that one coming.

That's not possible according to all the experts here. No one is buying the X (or S) any more. Are you sure she doesn't want a Hyundai?

 

[jerry33]

It may be a good sign but I have to say there is something of a fatigue factor for me with the ever changing vehicle lineup. We originally bought our M3 LR right when they announced they were discontinuing them. (best vehicle for our purposes, best range and efficiency and no identifiable need for additional performance) They have since re-introduced the LR Model 3, introduced and now discontinued the MR, played with pricing and options more times than I can count, etc.

We are in the market for a Model Y but honestly the continuously evolving pricing and options makes us less likely to put money down now than if we had some confidence that things would stay basically stable.

If the price goes down or the options change, you can cancel your order (anytime up to when the car is in production), and reorder. If the price goes up, your price will stay the same.