Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

what would the time frame for the verdict be, if there's going to be an evidentiary hearing? trying to manage risk...but I just added more $TSLA here as I think this SEC thing is overblown (non-material tweet, worst case probably a fine). M3 demand/deliveries looking to be very strong, while stock price is way too depressed. This will be a coil spring comes April delivery announcement in about 10 days.

Quarterly delivery announcements usually have a negative effect on SP. of course this time may be different since we will see international orders

 

[Zaxxon]

Tour secured. If anyone has questions for me to ask, hold them as I couldn't tell you the answers anyway.

 

[Tslynk67]

This isn't targeted at Lycanthrope in any way but rather at the people that does follow Jeff Osborne. At what time does these people have any TSLA? After the first 5 sell ratings you would assume they'd sold the ones they had. Does his customers keep on buying TSLA whenever he's not looking and then he can swoop in and save them with a sell rating? I literally can't understand how this is supposed to work?

I'm not selling and as he has a 50% success rate I would rather have the dart throwing monkey, the success rate should be the same and it IS a monkey. So his messages can't be for intelligent longs like me? Then whom is his intended target?

The intention is to move the stock price.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

OT, and this is it, off to another thread if people want to discuss further:



If they have a functioning bug database, the software department isn't using it. At all. Otherwise there wouldn't be high-priority bugs affecting thousands of angry customers which would take a couple of days to fix and haven't been fixed for five years. And we *know* they're not doing proper regression testing. The software history is way too awful and full of newly-introduced, never-fixed regressions.

Hardware department might be using the bug database; they're doing a good job.

Alternatively, the problem may be that nobody is getting many of the reported issues into JIRA in the first place, but those that do make it do get worked.

making the logical leap from "i don't like which bugs get prioritized, and how many defects i notice" to "they don't have a bug database at all" is completely absurd and irresponsible.

speaking as a software developer, the software team not having a bug database is about as likely as the software team not having keyboards.

It would probably help if there was a public list of known bugs (at least those that aren't security/safety concerns that public knowledge of before they're fixed could create problems due to bad actors). Then those who have issues won't feel as in the dark and ignored.

 

[BornToFly]

OT :


Can you show me where you gleaned this great "fact" from ? How many of the "third world" captains are 25 years old with limited experience ?

You are just doubling down on racist tropes.

Let us take these conversations to the political thread.

I’ll PM you an article from my pilot’s news. I don’t understand why some people on the left have to take real facts and somehow make everything about race and accuse everyone about being racist all the time. Most people are colored blind when it comes to facts. The far left is probably the most racists group out there....

Edit: Oops, sorry, I replied before seeing Mod warning. I’m away from home doing 4 days of aerobatics training, so I have too much time on my hands....

 

[anthonyj]

Shorts have added 4.5 million shares short in the past 17 days.

 

[mongo]

Elon’s headed back to California. Flight level 420 secured. Guess he’s not sticking around for the GM festivities after all.

No GM for Elon, he came out to talk to a group of Flint school children, pass out laptops to each one, and invite 2 from each school to tour SpaceX.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk surprises Flint students with visit, laptops
Laptops were from his >$400k donation last year
Elon Musk gives over $400K to buy laptops for Flint students

 

[SOULPEDL]

What higher ranges than 300 will allow is faster transit times.

Doesn't save transit time for me. Are you speaking of the road-warrior salesman with routine trips between cities? That's not a common consumer problem. It's great for $TSLA though, they lead that game well and can cash in on the demand.

I think this race for even higher mileage stems from the unknown + historical trickle charging and 80mi range Hybrids that struggled to fit in.

We are sSOOooo past that, I see ICE as the range anxieter now. "Oh, forgot to fill-up last night. Enough gas to get to the airport?" kinda stress - Gone!

 

[Drax7]

Hope Elon goes back to tesla deliveries and gives a hand by example.

 

[Nocturnal]

Shorts have added 4.5 million shares short in the past 17 days.

They are really banking on Q1 numbers hammering the stock. Obviously I'm biased and hope that doesn't happen, but I don't know see how Q1 expectations aren't already baked in.

View attachment 389265

Tour secured. If anyone has questions for me to ask, hold them as I couldn't tell you the answers anyway.

No questions but I'll pay good money for an everlasting gobstopper.

Doesn't save transit time for me. Are you speaking of the road-warrior salesman with routine trips between cities? That's not a common consumer problem. It's great for $TSLA though, they lead that game well and can cash in on the demand.

I think this race for even higher mileage stems from the unknown + historical trickle charging and 80mi range Hybrids that struggled to fit in.

We are sSOOooo past that, I see ICE as the range anxieter now. "Oh, forgot to fill-up last night. Enough gas to get to the airport?" kinda stress - Gone!

For any trip over 200 miles it definitely will increase transit times. Especially in the cold. Driving at 80 in 10 degree weather etc. can drop my range 40%. I don't live in Wisconsin either, I'm in Kansas City which is fully temperate.

 

[Cherry Wine]

They are really banking on Q1 numbers hammering the stock. Obviously I'm biased and hope that doesn't happen, but I don't know see how Q1 expectations aren't already baked in.

Unfortunately I disagree. I think trading in the $260s-$270s is uncertainty doing its thing -- confirmation to the negative would send the stock to the $240s-$250s is my guess.

 

[Tenable]

View attachment 389265

Tour secured. If anyone has questions for me to ask, hold them as I couldn't tell you the answers anyway.

Sadly the people giving the tours now days tend to know less about Tesla than us. Have fun! I hope you get a tour where the robots are actually moving.

 

[Drax7]

Breaking all support, this dog won’t hunt .
Few tweets to destroy 30% of the value.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

CLOSING above puts @.60/contract. Profit 2850$
reloaded for Model Y announcement tomorrow.

Another 9.82 free tsla shrs to the Long account.

CLOSING above put & .60/contract.
Profit 1020$. Or 3.84 free TSLA shrs to my Long acct.

New position for Q1 earnings play and Q1 softer deliveries.Q1 has been preannounced as “not as profitable” by EM. Let’s see how bad it is in 10 days. Will recalibrated afterwards

SELL

\


CLOSED at open above strangle 5x for loss of .20$/contract ( -80$ )
and
BUY 200 tsla @ 277
SOLD tsla 190322 265 put 3x @ 4.00$/contract

CLOSING above put 265 3x @ .60/contract.
Profit 1020$. Or 3.84 free TSLA shrs to my Long acct.

New position for Q1 earnings play and Q1 softer deliveries.Q1 has been preannounced as “not as profitable” by EM. Let’s see how bad it is in 10 days. Will recalibrated afterwards

SOLD TSLA 190426 250 put 3x @ 13.90/contract.
Max profit 4370$

 

[oneday]

My understanding:

• The reason the SEC didn't support an evidentiary hearing is because all their theories rely on undisputed evidence.
• I am very certain that Elon's team will ask for an evidentiary hearing, becase it's the only way to get the following pieces of evidence admitted:
  • The expert opinion and expert testimony Elon's first reply relied on in part. The SEC would want it either excluded as inadmissible, or have it at least cross-examined. They might also want to submit their own expert opinion.
  • The lawyers negotiating the settlement could issue affidavits and be subject to cross-examination. This establishes a chain of evidence regarding "intent". Both settlement contract intent and Elon's intent when he was writing the tweets matters.
  • Elon's team might want to call hostile witnesses from the other side, to cross-examine them against email evidence and other testimonies.
  • Various email chains might not be undisputed, because incomplete or lacking other context such as attachments.
  • If Elon's team wants to play hardball they could ask for limited discovery to support their theories. (I don't think they will, the interesting bits will be under attorney client privilege.)
• A contempt hearing typically only takes testimony from the defendant. This is good for the SEC but not enough for Elon's team.

All these pieces of evidence would be appeal-proof if properly handled, and the evidentiary hearing would allow them to be catalogued and recognized by the court, or at least a proper mechanism would be established to get them admitted.

Note that contempt of court hearings have very little procedural framework that I could find - they are free-form to a large degree, with a lot of discretion given to the judge. I have no idea what she wants this to become - and asking the parties gives her a first approximation about how much evidence there is to handle.

My (tentative) guess: there's probably going to be an evidentiary hearing, before a contempt hearing is held. The judge would want all evidentiary disputes resolved by the time she is asking questions from Elon.

Another reason I think Elon’s team will request an evidentiary hearing is to refute the claim by the SEC that “Musk made no such production forecast in the conference call” when Elon said “350,000 to 500,000 model 3s” calling it “cryptic” and a “murky remark”.

I think Elon’s team will want to make clear that Elon was referring to production numbers. That they are still continuing to ramp, and there is a lot of uncertainty in the timing of said ramp, thus such a large range.

I also think it was clear in the conference call that Elon was speaking to production for 2019. Certainly how I interpreted it. I also think there is no other valid explanation.

On this point alone, I think an evidentiary hearing is necessary.

 

[KSilver2000]

Quarterly delivery announcements usually have a negative effect on SP. of course this time may be different since we will see international orders

Yup. But not just the quarterly delivery announcement.
Hard to remember when ANY announcement (that is not a surprise EOQ earnings) resulted in a higher SP in recent memory. Better that they don’t announce anything these days so that shorts cannot spin FUD.

 

[mekberg]

Breaking all support, this dog won’t hunt .
Few tweets to destroy 30% of the value.

You're ignoring the macros.

 

[pp626]

Does anyone know what the FactSet Q1 delivery consensus is? Hopefully we can avoid being surprised by it being artificially inflated again.

 

[KarenRei]

Breaking all support, this dog won’t hunt .
Few tweets to destroy 30% of the value.

Today is due to macros. The stock is very closely following NASDAQ.

 

[lklundin]

My favorite of all time, will put it on my gravestone....wait for it....




...air pocket.

I can see it now:

Rest in Peace
in your
air pocket