Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mrdoubleb]

Little OT related to the supposed/anticipated S/X refresh that's been on my mind for a while.

Wouldn't it make more sense to move S/X production to GF1 and do Model Y in Fremont?

1. If S/X gets an internal and external design refresh, it could need changes to the assembly line. Cutover would be more seamless and any ramp issues would be eliminated if they built a brand new line and only took the existing one offline, once the new one is working fine.
2. If Model Y truly shares 75% of Model 3 components, it would be more efficient to produce them side by side (production flexibility in 3 to Y ratio as demand changes; logistics and warehousing of parts; partially joint lines,etc).

 

[Causalien]

Oooooo. Island reversal.

This stock man. Island reversal is supposed to be a once in a blue moon thing.

 

[Tslynk67]

Roll it to at least June, while keeping ~50% of the winnings.
And remember- it's a slippery slope. You touch options once and before you know it you end up with half your holdings in options

Options noob - how does one "roll" options? You mean close it and buy another?

Edit, one of these I guess...

 

[shlokavica22]

Options noob - how does one "roll" options? You mean close it and buy another?

Basically yes. Depending on the platform you use, it can be done in one go.

 

[Swampgator]

Little OT related to the supposed/anticipated S/X refresh that's been on my mind for a while.

Wouldn't it make more sense to move S/X production to GF1 and do Model Y in Fremont?

1. If S/X gets an internal and external design refresh, it could need changes to the assembly line. Cutover would be more seamless and any ramp issues would be eliminated if they built a brand new line and only took the existing one offline, once the new one is working fine.
2. If Model Y truly shares 75% of Model 3 components, it would be more efficient to produce them side by side (production flexibility in 3 to Y ratio as demand changes; logistics and warehousing of parts; partially joint lines,etc).

Battery packs, inverters, and motors all come from GF1 and need to be trucked to Freemont. So the highest freight costs could be eliminated by building Model Y in GF1.

 

[azaz]

so no evidentiary hearing?

 

[AndyH]

No super reliable up to date figures from Sweden yet but the site car.info reports new registrations of 1433 M3's in March. Numbers on that site might include pre-registrations done by Tesla. I'm not sure.

Best selling car in Sweden last month was VW Golf with 1720 sold. It doesn't take much for Model 3 to be best seller in March. I'm hopeful for this last week's push.

 

[Majorgroove]

Anyone has the link to the latest avg "analyst" estimates for production and delivery? Afraid that we might have a repeat of what happened with deliver numbers last quarter where analysts last minute hike up their estimates probably based off the bloomberg tracker and voila its a miss and CNBC spreads the headline FUD causing the machines into a selling frenzy. Thoughts?

 

[Pezpunk]

Anyone has the link to the latest avg "analyst" estimates for production and delivery? Afraid that we might have a repeat of what happened with deliver numbers last quarter where analysts last minute hike up their estimates probably based off the bloomberg tracker and voila its a miss and CNBC spreads the headline FUD causing the machines into a selling frenzy. Thoughts?

they've already done this -- someone posted a chart yesterday showing a consensus of analysts predicting Tesla would make a profit this quarter, even though Elon has already warned people to expect a loss. it's complete disingenuous BS.

 

[Majorgroove]

they've already done this -- someone posted a chart yesterday showing a consensus of analysts predicting Tesla would make a profit this quarter, even though Elon has already warned people to expect a loss. it's complete disingenuous BS.

Unbelievable!

 

[Chickenlittle]

We can attempt to calculate the average depreciation schedule, in Q4 Tesla had depreciation of $500m, while property, pant and equipment was 11.3b on the balance sheet. This suggests average D&A count of ~22 quarters, but buildings would probably have higher amortization schedules: 15 to 30 years, which draws the average up.

Anyway, 10, 15 or even 20 quarter schedules doesn't really matter to the outcome of the basic math: only hundreds of SR units were announced so far, so even if we generously assume a very fast ramp-up to say 1000-2000 units in Q1, even 20-quarter $10m of amortization overhead splits up only between these units, with $5k-$10k per unit D&A expenses. Even with 2k-3k units (which I don't see happening) the GAAP margin would still be negative.

But this doesn't really matter, this is normal ramp-up math when equipment built for 3k/week rate is only running at 10% its planned capacity. It just explains why Elon was reluctant to give SR margin figures.

Ramping SR is not the same as ramping a whole new model. The car body is the same (only new interior options of superficial nature). New battery pack should be easier than doing a whole new model

 

[Chickenlittle]

OT I remember why daveT had separate thread established. Frequency length of quality posts used as justification. Times have changed and I suspect factchecking should assume that mantle

 

[mrdoubleb]

Battery packs, inverters, and motors all come from GF1 and need to be trucked to Freemont. So the highest freight costs could be eliminated by building Model Y in GF1.

I am not sure if Model S/X pack assembly is still in Fremont or moved to GF1, but motors and inverters need to be transported from Nevada to Fremont as well. Now, due to volumes, you are right, battery packs will need to be transported between he 2 factories, but I expect that route will be equipped with Tesla Semis, possibly even convoying with just 1 driver, as soon as they start making those trucks.

Regardless, it just makes more sense for me to have 3/Y be built side by side than to pair one of the two with S/X.

Anyway, don't want to generate OT back and forth. Just a thought.

 

[30seconds]

Training != inference computing.

Tesla's AI chip is basically a neural network inference computing co-processor. (It probably cannot even be used for training.)

Inference computing is a massively parallel problem that can be distributed among GPUs just fine: the easiest to implement model would be to have two identical boards for example on the Tesla Semi Truck which has 20 cameras, each board processing 10 camera video feeds at full frame rate.

In principle they could also do multi-GPU boards, but I'd advise against that: they should just use 2-3 Model 3 computing boards as-is and improve economies of scale.

Clearly what they need is to not panic and build a probability drive chipset.

 

[anthonyj]

Lol they are selling EVERYTHING in NJ. Showroom cars get sold and changed every day now. Really! Yes I’ve been checking everyday. This is like Q4 but way more organized

 

[Fact Checking]

Ramping SR is not the same as ramping a whole new model. The car body is the same (only new interior options of superficial nature). New battery pack should be easier than doing a whole new model

Yes, but Q1 SR margins will probably be poor due to too few units being burdened with a fixed D&A expense and production only having started in the final 4 weeks of the quarter.

In Q2 or Q3 it will be more meaningful to talk about SR GAAP margins.

Also note that this works both ways: the SR lines are not burdened with the expensive history of the Long Range battery pack assembly lines - so eventually even GAAP margins of SR units could be quite nice.

 

[Lessmog]

Clearly what they need is to not panic and build a probability drive chipset.

Actually, more likely an IMprobability drive set. Just feed it hot tea from time to time ...

*HHGTTG ref

 

[Garlands]

Do Tesla/Elon still have an Instagram account or did they shut it down a while back? Seems like a much more powerful tool to advertise than twitter.

 

[Todd Burch]

they've already done this -- someone posted a chart yesterday showing a consensus of analysts predicting Tesla would make a profit this quarter, even though Elon has already warned people to expect a loss. it's complete disingenuous BS.

Anyone with a large social media following needs to post this information NOW...BEFORE the numbers are out.

Document clearly and in front of a large audience:

1. The current production/delivery estimates of the analysts (and how low they are).
2. That many have downgraded based on these estimates. (So their friends can buy cheap).
3. That the analysts are predicting profit/positive EPS DESPITE Tesla's guidance to the contrary.

We need to do this to prevent the shenanigans that happened during Q4. They key is to publicize the shenanigans...get the public's eye on it and call them out for it. That's the only way to make it stop.

 

[mongo]

I am not sure if Model S/X pack assembly is still in Fremont or moved to GF1, but motors and inverters need to be transported from Nevada to Fremont as well. Now, due to volumes, you are right, battery packs will need to be transported between he 2 factories, but I expect that route will be equipped with Tesla Semis, possibly even convoying with just 1 driver, as soon as they start making those trucks.

Regardless, it just makes more sense for me to have 3/Y be built side by side than to pair one of the two with S/X.

Anyway, don't want to generate OT back and forth. Just a thought.

Y volumes will be higher that S+X (projected higher than 3), so in terms of total shipping, having Y in GF is more beneficial than S/X.
While 3 and Y share parts, their volumes are higher that one truck load, so the suppliers will just ship to the respective assembly points.
Plus, Tesla can possibly use the currently empty semis to haul Y parts to GF1 from Fremont/ Lathrop (assuming correct dunnage).

Fremont may also run into a finished goods shipping bottle neck with 3+Y volumes.