Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[adiggs]

InsideEVs has some actual data:
Tesla Model 3 Tops European Sales Chart For Premium Midsize Sedan
View attachment 390507

Pacman is coming for you ...

 

[NannerAirCraft]

Guys I just checked the page showing total orders in Europe by country and Norway finally got updated after it hasn't seemed to change for like a month. Instead of showing just over 5000 orders it now shows 14000!! Can someone that knows more about this tell me if that number is actually legit?

Microsoft Power BI

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Normal fingernails:

German fingernails:

 

[Unpilot]

Tesla's one hell of a drug.

Go to the gym and get endorphins come to TMC and....well it's a surprise every day!

 

[traxila]

I am calling up from here. This was so overdone. Investing more dough. Buying calls. Selling puts. Please do not twitter me to death again Elon.

Not an advice. And please keep in mind I am most useful as a contrarian indicator, much to my chagrin...

 

[ReflexFunds]

This isn't really negative for Tesla this year, currently it has no access to subsidies in China so it is at a disadvantage relative to the local EV competition. Next year, higher EV subsidies would have been nice, but i don't think Tesla was ever counting on them.

Current national EV subsidy is:

• 150-200 km: 15,000 yuan (c.$2,230)
• 200-250 km: 24,000 yuan
• 250-300 km: 34,000 yuan
• 300-400 km: 45,000 yuan
• over 400 km: 50,000 yuan (≈$7,450)

It looks like this is moving to 0 for <250km, 250km-400km ? and >400km cut in half to 25k yuan (c.$3.7k)

It is also urging local governments to phase out subsidies (currently average 70-80k yuan i think).

EVs should still get significant benefit from no consumption/excise tax (tax varies with engine size: 1 litre engine 1%, 1-1.5L 3%, 1.5-2L 5%, 2-3L 9%, 3-4L 25%, >4L 40%) and no purchase tax (5% temporarily, normally 10%).

There have also been reports that China may introduce local subsidies for electricity to lower ownership costs of EVs further.

China also has its ZEV program to slowly enforce transition to EVs, but this isn't likely to be a market driver unless the targets are made significantly more aggressive.

Edit: Bad Google Translation. Below 160Wh/kg, subsidy is lower, but above gets 1x.

Full policy document below:

http://jjs.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/zhengcefagui/201903/P020190326640122645440.doc

 

[ReflexFunds]

Guys I just checked the page showing total orders in Europe by country and Norway finally got updated after it hasn't seemed to change for like a month. Instead of showing just over 5000 orders it now shows 14000!! Can someone that knows more about this tell me if that number is actually legit?

Microsoft Power BI

This spreadsheet no longer seems to be useful - it looks to me like the final order confirmation numbers are in the same chain as the deposit confirmation numbers - so each car will count twice once the full amount is paid. I'm not sure about this though.

In fact, it should still be useful, half the highest number should now be the lower bound for orders in each country.

 

[BrianZ]

Just a data point. I have a Model 3 performance ordered 2 weeks ago, scheduled originally for Tuesday delivery, now to Thursday, and I still don't have a VIN 2 days before the new delivery, meaning my car isn't even built. As far as I know, performance orders get first priority for delivery. How many performance model 3 orders does Tesla have???

 

[AudubonB]

[EDIT] PS: “slobberfest” is my new most-favorite word.

Good.
I've got plenty more, and am here all night.
And day.
And night.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I am calling up from here. This was so overdone. Investing more dough. Buying calls. Selling puts. Please do not twitter me to death again Elon.

Not an advice. And please keep in mind I am most useful as a contrarian indicator, much to my chagrin...

Uh oh another material tweet.

 

[AudubonB]

German fingernails:

With nails like that, there's no need for cars. And broomsticks are a dime apiece.

 

[AudubonB]

Uh oh another material tweet.

I see what you did there.

 

[VValleyEV]

Good.
I've got plenty more, and am here all night.
And day.
And night.

You have a very difficult job, and deserve a lot of thanks. Which you probably get with a frequency of ... never.
I love this forum, and having a good moderator is essential to retain its quality.
Thank you.
This is NOT a call for another slobberfest. Feel free to remove this post in fear of the inevitable. Maybe I should have PM’ed.

 

[printf42]

* Virtually no China orders

Because most Chinese don’t speak English and they don’t frequent English forums.
Also, most Google services are blocked or semi-blocked in China.
Last time I checked were long time ago, but I remember google doc doesn’t work in China, might have changed though.

 

[lklundin]

A similar headline from Top Gear

Tesla's Model 3 outsold the 3 Series, C-Class and A4

Considering that the data is based on February, these numbers are insane!

Although the first EU shipment (Glovis Captain) arrived in Zeebrugge on feb. 5,
I believe the majority of these cars were sent to more distant parts of the EU, so in reality the data covers only half February. Consequently, March will be much more dramatic.

On a quarterly basis, it will be less so, since Tesla is focusing deliveries on different regions in different parts of each quarter (at least for now).

But averaging February and March EU deliveries out to all of Q1 should still make for an fearsome quarter for the Model 3.

 

[shlokavica22]

AAPL is taking the indexes down:

TRADE JUDGE RECOMMENDS IMPORT BAN ON SOME APPLE IPHONES

 

[Causalien]

Edit: Bad Google Translation. Below 160Wh/kg, subsidy is lower, but above gets 1x.

Full policy document below:

http://jjs.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/zhengcefagui/201903/P020190326640122645440.doc

It just means that 160 WH/kg is compensated at 100%. Wherea's the compensation for lesser density is 90% for < 160WH and 80% for < 140 WH. Basically spelling out that your battery need to be good to be considered an EV and not just come out with a compliance car that cannot go anywhere far.

 

[Fact Checking]

Are you sure capex will be broken out for each variant of model3? I mean they do not break out the margin for other options such as paint color or wheel types. Perhaps margin will be reported for all which will of course drag down margin of all but with explanation of spending on new battery pack line

Capex is just a cash cost that is not broken down - I'm talking about depreciation and amortization, which I believe gets into CoGs, which is tracked per VIN and per station a car and a battery pack goes through.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Guys I just checked the page showing total orders in Europe by country and Norway finally got updated after it hasn't seemed to change for like a month. Instead of showing just over 5000 orders it now shows 14000!! Can someone that knows more about this tell me if that number is actually legit?

Microsoft Power BI

4,300 orders per week?!?! I... think we’re going to need more factories...

 

[Causalien]

Because most Chinese don’t speak English and they don’t frequent English forums.
Also, most Google services are blocked or semi-blocked in China.
Last time I checked were long time ago, but I remember google doc doesn’t work in China, might have changed though.

The chinese firewall is getting a lot harder to vpn through nowadays. Every month vpn services gets taken down and new ones pop up and the rate is getting higher. Also the social credit system discourages using vpn to go outside.