EVNow
Well-Known Member
The biggest market share loser is BMW - lost nearly 50% of the market share - from 24% to 13%. Audi & Alfa Romeo Giulia lost some 6 pp.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Fresh end of Q1 Gigafactory Model 3 battery pack production "sentiment" updates from Carsonight (he is a reliable source, he is retired and has friends and family working at the GF):
Rather bullish.
- "They only started up production of the SR Model 3 a couple of weeks ago, and my understanding is that GF1 is currently running at 6k plus Model 3 battery packs per week. I am told the hard limit at Fremont is 7k Model 3s per week so I don't know how many SR Model 3s they can fit in, but I do know the goal at GF1 has constantly been 7k packs per week since late November."
- "The problem is that Tesla is battery cell starved, and will be until they expand GF1."
- "My alternate theory, which I personally subscribe to, is that Fremont can make 7K Model 3s per week but Panasonic cannot produce enough cells for that many LR Model 3 battery packs. Until they can expand at GF1, the SR Model 3 keeps a promise, but enen more it allows maximum production at Fremont."
- "Firing on all cylnders. No idea that number cylinders. No idea the number of SR packs, but I am told the goal is 7k Model 3 packs per week."
- "I think the production push is Model 3s right now. Tesla has been telling employees that 7k Model 3s per week are essential. I think Tesla will wait to use 2170 cells on anything else until after GF1 expansion."
Right.
What is the BEV metaphorical equivalent of "Firing on all cylinders"?
"Torquing on all motors"?
Antares Nebula
Active Member
Possibly. But bear in mind that we gapped up, and now there is a gap between 261 and 264. We may go back and fill that gap OR it could be a so-called "island reversal" -- bullish.
I’m flabbergasted at the numbers coming out of Europe so early in 2019 and this is just the beginning of more good news. Kudos to our EU brothers and sisters.
Odds are improving daily that Tesla will have healthy production and delivery numbers and even a PROFIT in Q1. Better SP are coming. Keep the faith.
Odds are improving daily that Tesla will have healthy production and delivery numbers and even a PROFIT in Q1. Better SP are coming. Keep the faith.
A wild card is the take rate for EAP and FSD, which could raise the ASP significantly at basically zero marginal cost.
An isolated few anecdotes indicate rather high take rates, do we have a broader collection of the AEP/FSD take rate?
AND there it is…….431 in Norway. We may hit 500 today
Yeah, not talking about today 100%. Am saying that 260 is support and there is no reason not to be at 280 in a week or less. Sell off is totally overdone and I have the feeling that the people that wanted in are there now. Should retest low 260s cause reasons.
No, TE is all designed around 2170 cells. However, they can use Samsung, and any other supplier, of 2170 cells that have passed Tesla's certification process.
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
They don't report COGS or gross margins for each variant, so building more of one variant and less of another doesn't change the earnings report. It might change some internal tracking numbers, but you don't make product decisions to improve those.
I also disagree with your theory that the new Grohman machine is SR-only. No way they invest all that effort in machines the size of football fields and restrict them to one variant. They probably aren't using it for LR variants yet, but they will soon enough. Current LR pack assembly is way too labor-intense and wasteful. They have to move it to this machine, or maybe a duplicate of it.
I can't imagine they'd depreciate this Grohman machine faster than 5 years. Probably more. The 10-K says they depreciate machinery, equipment, vehicles and office furniture over 2-12 years, but if you allocate 1.2b annualized PP&E depreciation over the various categories this particular category ends up around 600m/year. That's roughly 10 years average life based on 6b+ original cost.
FWIW, I also expect a S/X pack redesign that will also be built using this new Grohman machine. I think that's one reason they haven't upgraded the S/X pack yet.
But wouldn't they all be marked "AB normal?"
MartinAustin
Active Member
And another reason why they're not switching S+X to 21-70 any time soon
With apologies to everyone I must admit that I failed to check the timestamp of the above AIS report, which was almost exactly 12 hours old (03:17 UTC, while I happened to note that info right after 15:17 UTC).
So the extrapolation puts this shipment in Bergen right around the ETA that it has announced since some time, i.e. tomorrow morning. That's basically a whole extra day of deliveries.
For future mistakes, I will try to find something different.
AND there it is…….431 in Norway. We may hit 500 today
But only 24 of that 431 were S&X... ~95% Model 3s...
After only 40 days of Model 3s deliveries they have already delivered more than half of 2018 total:
And while S&X deliveries are trailing last year, it isn't that bad.
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Off Shore
Off Topic Member
I believe this is called praising with faint damns.
Benzinga - 49 minutes ago: Recode Editor: Uber, Lyft's Business 'Tough Going From A Financial Point Of View'
Swisher gave Tesla credit for spooking the auto industry into innovating. “Whatever you think about what’s going on at Tesla and with Elon Musk, he has shifted the discussion really significantly in that regard,” she said.
Swisher gave Tesla credit for spooking the auto industry into innovating. “Whatever you think about what’s going on at Tesla and with Elon Musk, he has shifted the discussion really significantly in that regard,” she said.
Antares Nebula
Active Member
Is there any chance that the judge can issue a ruling today, after hours. Or does she still have to wait till midnight tonight in case either party changes their mind about the evidentiary hearing?
SebastianR
Active Member
This is one of the rare occasions I don't fully agree with you. I didn't observe a noticeable decline in the FUD. The Spiegel article in question is not quite as bad as it could be. But to a native German (full disclosure, I am one), this article is full of nastiness against Tesla disguised as "compliments".
Example:
"The driving in the Model 3 is - like always with Tesla - an ambiguous experience. Despite the efforts of CEO Musk to encourage his customers to renew their thinking, Tesla is locked into the old thinking itself. Having fun driving is important and even though the tuning isn't perfect, the Model 3 is getting damn close to the BMW M3. Our test car accelerated in 3.5 seconds 0 to 60 and reaches a top speed of 250kph."
So these clowns are testing the PERFORMANCE version of the Model 3 and complain that performance is really "old and outdated thinking" and imply to any competent German reader that this ability to perform is somehow bad. At face value the fact may look generous: "Model 3 performs as well as the BMW M3" but if you read it, it is phrased as something to be disgusted about.
There are more examples like this in the article. Of course it is not the worst article possible. There are no outright lies in it, but it is far from being truly neutral (and even further from being positive).
To understand why they do this click here for a brief excursion into the state of German EV angst:
There are roughly two groups of people in Germany: Petrolheads & Greenies.
Petrol heads love mechanical engineering, hate electrics and love to tinker with their cars. These are the guys that made Mercedes, BMW & Co. great. They love the modern marvels called ICE engines and hate "primitive" and "simple" electric engines. They hate EVs since they think they don't have a "soul"
Greenies hate cars: they think that any car is bad and that nobody should be allowed to own a car but use the (excellent) public transport, bike and walk. They think that EVs don't provide a solution to congested inner cities and lack of parking spaces. They hate EVs since they are still cars.
In this climate EVs are attacked from both ends and myths like "a clean Diesel is still much better than any EV" and other nonsense like "we shouldn't invest in rare earth needing EVs but rather wait for fuel cell cars to arrive" and similar survive until today...
/end rant
Petrol heads love mechanical engineering, hate electrics and love to tinker with their cars. These are the guys that made Mercedes, BMW & Co. great. They love the modern marvels called ICE engines and hate "primitive" and "simple" electric engines. They hate EVs since they think they don't have a "soul"
Greenies hate cars: they think that any car is bad and that nobody should be allowed to own a car but use the (excellent) public transport, bike and walk. They think that EVs don't provide a solution to congested inner cities and lack of parking spaces. They hate EVs since they are still cars.
In this climate EVs are attacked from both ends and myths like "a clean Diesel is still much better than any EV" and other nonsense like "we shouldn't invest in rare earth needing EVs but rather wait for fuel cell cars to arrive" and similar survive until today...
/end rant
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Sean Wagner
Member
Useful for spearing bites of currywurst. The Greens are threatening to split into fervently opposed factions over unintelligible differences regarding a mandatory quota for boardmembers of listed companies.
Edit: I only clicked on the spoiler above after writing this.
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