Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Antares Nebula]

A more objective and refreshingly bullish take on the news today:

Tesla still isn’t getting enough batteries from Panasonic

 

[Cherry Wine]

I'd be a seller going INTO the event though. I can't really see anything coming out of the event that is going to interest more people in the stock or people to accumulate at this point.

I AM surprised that the bi-partisan bill to extend the Federal Tax Credit (could be $7000 going forward) to the first 600K cars (not the 200K phase out going on now) didn't have a bigger effect on the stock. it didn't, quite literally nothing.

And as well, I'm surprised that the ceasing of investment by Panasonic in the GF1 didn't have a bigger effect on the stock.

You all already know what I think that means...

Each did have an effect, though. +/- $10 from each. And I’m too dense to know what you think that means - maybe you can spell it out for me.

 

[ClownMouth]

I usually don’t do the latter. People already find my memory annoying.

Just your memory?

 

[Krugerrand]

The suspension of air suspension, the not-a-recall missing/loose seat bolt recall, the OMG missing HP and subsequent panic over battery specifications, the 0-60 is it a rolling or not-a-rolling start, the many introductions of new features not preannounced 6 months in advance - I bought my car yesterday and Tesla ripped me off, the Broder fiasco, heck, the first picture of a Tesla being flatbedded, the drive unit failures, the first child’s finger to get pinched by a Model S door handle, ack!! no cupholders wth?!?

I can go on and on.

And I will go on; the first time GM announced their 35k EV with all the same specs that Tesla announced 5 years earlier would beat Tesla to market by a full year+, the not folding second row of seats in the X, the first CR report saying Model S would not be their recommendation, oh, oh, the huge delay just before Christmas because back order on seats that affected deliveries that quarter (later discovered it was for a redesign of the seat because the first one didn’t pass Elon’s 5* safety requirements, and who could forget the Solar City merger?

I stop there even though many more historical moments of hysteria and SP plummeting exist.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Epic battle between good and evil. This is what we are witnessing in our time. If only Joseph Campbell were alive today; the mythic tales are being written right before our eyes!

Yeah, I think with a touch of George MacDonald too.

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

Just your memory?

Absolutely not. They get annoyed I always have an answer (usually not one they want to hear), that I’m always right, that the sarcasm oozes from my pores. There’s other less attractive traits, but I am funny as heck, honest, fair and fiercely loyal.

All the fault of my parents.

 

[ZsoZso]

Boosters landed again? Satellites launched for Saudi Arabia? Time to buy more stock.
TSLAQ my a**!

Oh, no! We are in danger of "Funding Secured!" tweet V2.0 now

 

[BornToFly]

P100D was like $140k 6 months ago.

No the P100DL was. P100D is a little slower and cheaper. They had stopped offering the Performance non-Ludicrous option for a while, which was a mistake. Nice to have it back.

 

[TNEVol]

Nor I on my '13 @ 139K

And me on my 13 p85 with 117k

 

[EVNow]

And as well, I'm surprised that the ceasing of investment by Panasonic in the GF1 didn't have a bigger effect on the stock.

Since the market & bears already assume a problem with demand, this would indeed reinforce that belief - but all this is already priced in.

All this kind of "news" (which was corrected later to say "contradictory info") does is for shorts to get more bold and sell more. We can see a short interest spike every time one of these events happen.

Looks to me we need some kind of definitive proof before the "demand" issue goes away - so that would have to be a delivery report.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Other news sites now calling out the Nikkei for not citing sources in its Tesla story today (can we all say FUD?):

Tesla, Panasonic to seek productivity gains before new battery investments - Reuters

Tesla still isn’t getting enough batteries from Panasonic

 

[Todd Burch]

Let me summarize today:

Nikkei: “Someone said Tesla isn’t able to sell anything!”

Stock drops $8.

Tesla: “Nikkei’s report is nonsense.”

Stock rises 50 cents.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Each did have an effect, though. +/- $10 from each. And I’m too dense to know what you think that means - maybe you can spell it out for me.

@Cherry Wine good call on those 270 calls you sold. Did you buy them back today or are you going to wait till tomorrow? If I had sold those calls, I would have panicked and bought them back when Tesla hit 280 earlier in the week. But if you had the perseverance to hold, you would have been rewarded today. On the other hand, I picked up a few more Nov and Jan 400 calls today. That's more my play. I also bought some 365 puts yesterday that came in handy today.

 

[Fact Checking]

I've to wonder how tslaq squares their Elon is a fraud thesis with Space-X obvious achievements.

In moments like this, when SpaceX is producing spectacular achievements, TSLAQ cult members try to pretend that Elon has very little to do with SpaceX - just like they are downplaying Elon's role in founding the company that later became PayPal.

At the same time when there's some negative SpaceX news (a delay or a complication), in an amazing turnaround it's all Elon's fault again, fraud and SpaceXQ.

So the TSLAQ argument is that SpaceX successes are not Elon's achievements, but SpaceX setbacks are all Elon's fault.

I'm not making this up.

 

[Fact Checking]

One problem with your numbers, $10k worth of cells makes way more than $10k worth of Powerwalls.

Model 3 LR is 80kWh or so, PW is 14kWh ish, so 5:1 ratio. PW lists at $6,700, so 5 of them cost $33,500. Say $2k for electronics and housing each $10k for 5 plus $10k cells, $20k total. That yields $13,500 net. Call it $10k to be conservative and cover manufacturing overhead.

So it's possibly 4-5x your estimate and on par with the 3 profit (assuming no AP or FSD upgrades)

I suspect part of the current PowerWall pricing is the high corporate overhead the low scale has to cover: they are still selling an order of magnitude fewer cells than automotive and overall margins are below target.

But once they are up in scale the planned margins are the usual 25% - which would be mostly on top of cells.

I suspect industrial scale storage projects have similar margins.

Plus there's the recent report that apparently Tesla is still cell starved:

Tesla still isn’t getting enough batteries from Panasonic

"The supply of batteries made by Panasonic is still the “fundamental constraint” on the production of Tesla products, the company said Thursday."​

So I guess the Nikkei report was mostly false and misleading, but used in a bear raid trying to nullify the early ER date announcement and the Autonomy Investor Day.

TSLA accumulators accepted the price discount offered yesterday, to the tune of ~10 million shares.

 

[tslalala]

After one article, the stock drops and all this chatter... This *sugar* is ridiculous.

Remember that "one article" didn't cause this big stock price drop. It's one FUD in concert with the massive short interests. There are no coincidences especially since the day before Tesla's stock price had sthot up to ~$280. Today was a coordinated take down of TSLA.

 

[Fact Checking]

Hmm, is there any particular reason why Tesla would want to ship cells from Nevada to China? It seems Japan and China would suffice.

Yes, the reason for shipping from Nevada to Shanghai is that currently GF1 is the only factory making high energy density 2170 cells which are required by the battery packs made in Shanghai. So for a few quarters we'll probably see 2170 cells shipped from Nevada to Shanghai.

Since cells have high mass density the shipment costs should be comparatively low.

Another reason is that Tesla is probably performing high stakes negotiations with cell suppliers right now, which means that at this stage Tesla wants to keep as many options open as possible. (To be able to credibly walk away from any of the offers.)

 

[Mkorpal]

An Update to Our Vehicle Lineup

Um, did they just release a massive nugget of news tonight.

 

[Papafox]

Any flavor appreciated on this issue of whether Tesla is getting a sufficient supply of batteries from Panasonic. I'm referencing this story from Verge:

Tesla still isn't getting enough batteries from Panasonic

In particular, look at this first paragraph:

The supply of batteries made by Panasonic is still the “fundamental constraint” on the production of Tesla products, the company said Thursday. The electric car maker isn’t getting enough batteries from the production lines that Panasonic operates in the automaker’s Reno, Nevada Gigafactory to keep up with the number of cars and home energy storage products it wants to make. The two companies believe more batteries can be made using the equipment in place at the factory though, Tesla said.

My guess is that Tesla made this statement to put to bed the idea that demand for Tesla products has constrained the number of battery cells that Panasonic is making at GF1. Tesla is basically saying, "Demand for Tesla products is not the bottleneck. If we had more battery cells made by Panasonic, we'd be putting them to use."

Notice the wording that the supply of batteries made by Panasonic is still the "fundamental constraint" on production of Tesla products. As @Fact Checking pointed out, those cells are more valuable to Tesla in Model 3s than in Tesla Energy products, and so Tesla will opt for production of automotive chemistry cells over TE cells if push comes to shove.

The big question is whether Panasonic battery cell quantity will impact Tesla's ability to produce noticeably larger numbers of M3s in Q2 vs. Q1. My guess is that cells will not be the problem and TE lines can be converted to automotive cell lines as needed. What do you think?

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

"Please note, customers who choose leasing over owning will not have the option to purchase their car at the end of the lease, because with full autonomy coming in the future via an over-the-air software update, we plan to use those vehicles in the Tesla ride-hailing network."