...and expanding the building on the, quote, "west side". (I'm assuming that's the front or southwest side, and not the northwest side.) Employees will have to park remotely (or take BART).
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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The combined ratio for private passenger automobile insurance businesses in the past few years has been around 105%, which means they pay out $105 while take in $100 of premium.
If Tesla starts to report a combined ratio of 50%, the whole insurance world and investment community will notice Tesla cars indeed have less accidents.
If Tesla starts to report a combined ratio of 50%, the whole insurance world and investment community will notice Tesla cars indeed have less accidents.
I bet there is a gas station somewhere along the way. If not, the Alfa Romeo Quadrafoglio and awhole host of sportscars (I know I know, Alaska) will also not make it. Even Alaska will need to get its act together and build chargers at service station and the like. One charger can serve so many cars. But all people in your community will need to get an extended range BEV with associated environmental impact if there truly is nothing in terms of chargers on the way.
As an innovator, you don't need to make cars for all corner cases. RoboTaxis will drive before they can travers a city in say, India. Lots of cars need to be replaced with BEVs and those in Alaska are not top of the list, realistically. I do admire your drive to make that work, don't get me wrong. Especially if you drive so much.
I just want to take a moment to express how much I hate the tax credit structure. It royally screwed up the Model 3's production ramp. Tesla frontloaded a ton of high margin P and AWD variants to the US when in reality, if there was no tax credit reduction timeline, they should have started high margin production across all 3 territories, without doing the wave strategy. The high margin variants would have def filled up Q3 and Q4 production and would have helped absorb the hit of not doing the wave and as production ramps, they could then spread the cost of the wave as production ramps as well as introduce the Mid-Range and/or the SR + as the production ramped. The whole thing would have been so much smoother. Sure by doing all high end variants across all 3 territories without doing the wave strategy would likely meant little to no Q3 profit, but we wouldn't be looking at a 700 million loss in Q1.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Hating him aside, Adam Jonas question was a good one. Reflect on it. Is there any benefit in tsla staying public?
The small investors that he wants to keep instead saw their net worth cut off by a large chunk. They are held hostage by the wave. And having all media blasting fire everyday degrades the brand.
Honestly, I currently don't see a benefit of staying public.
How do they exist that way? There's overhead also...
ZachShahan
Active Member
Pras
Member
I think they will partner with other insurer so they will not reveal all the details.
Combined ratio of 70% / pre marketing is healthy..and is the norm. Tesla doesn’t need to market it so that will significantly reduce the premium as well. Any saving due to better underwriting and additional data can all be pocketed.
I'm not sure they're going to smooth S/X, which are still built to order according to the letter (whereas 3 is built to inventory). The numbers on S/X don't strain the delivery infrastructure the way the numbers for 3 do. I mean, S/X are more or less demand-limited in current markets, so they'll sort of have to auto-smooth, but I'm not sure how big an effect this is...
No, I'm overthinking it. In Q2, they have to build up new-model S&X inventory in transit because there's NONE at the moment. That means a 7000-car buildup in inventory in Q2, if we assume 25K/quarter steady state demand and mean days in transit of 25.
Meanwhile, whatever's left of the old model inventory will have to be discounted, which is an actual hit to profits. And, ooh, it could actually be meaningful. Total wild guess ass pull numbers, 7000 old inventory * 10,000 discount = 70 million hit to profits.
electrichapp
Member
probably gonna be flat. max pain is 267.5 so will probablu gravitate to that. my preferred method if i have enough cash for 100 shares is sell put options to set my limit target and collect option premium.
I have a feeling it will be near flat tomorrow with MMD potentially moving us $5 lower and then recovering. But then SEC news comes out and if big players move in afterwards, we may see some bump on Fri. It feels though like SP will stay depressed overall until Q2 ER.
Pretty sure I'm wrong
From Q1 letter "As a result of the pricing actions, we adjusted our sales return reserve for cars sold with a Resale Value Guarantee or Buy Back Guarantee. This one-time adjustment had a negative revenue impact of $501 million with a corresponding decrease in automotive cost of goods sold impact of $409 million resulting in a $92 million reduction in gross profit."
Does this mean Q1 revenue could have been $501 million more without the adjustment? Does this mean bulk of the $501 million will become revenue in Q2 (a mix of some no-buy-back-happen and buy-back-resold-at-lower-price)?
Please share your thoughts. Thanks in advance.
Does this mean Q1 revenue could have been $501 million more without the adjustment? Does this mean bulk of the $501 million will become revenue in Q2 (a mix of some no-buy-back-happen and buy-back-resold-at-lower-price)?
Please share your thoughts. Thanks in advance.
This has nothing to do with margins, it has to do with capex. Half as much capex.
ZachShahan
Active Member
th
the wave, dude. the wave.
i expect that means there won't be a big end of quarter delivery rush, which will hurt Tesla.
the wave, dude. the wave.
i expect that means there won't be a big end of quarter delivery rush, which will hurt Tesla.
Well, here's some general stats but of course every design/team/fab process/etc is different, and the article is from 2015 :
Semiconductor Engineering - FinFET Rollout Slower Than Expected
The current cost per-wafer (ignoring development costs, mask costs, etc, just the incremental cost of each wafer) could be anywhere in the $4000-$8000 range, I am using what little outdated and non-Samsung-specific info I could find and throwing in some great big error bars to arrive at that number.
If we make use of Die Per Wafer Calculator - and assume the die is 20.4mm X 12.75mm (stated size is 260mm^2 and the aspect ratio of the die shot is just above 1.6:1), then we get 302 potential dies per 300mm wafer before removing any failed dies. We don't really have any insight into their defect rate but let's say pessimistically that about 50 of those dies are failures. That gets us about 250 usable dies, and a per-die wafer cost of $16-$32, before testing, packaging, etc. The actual effective cost per ready-to-use device is going to be higher, and I'm not really well versed enough in the right aspects of semiconductor manufacturing to begin ferreting those out, and don't feel like spending more time on this at the moment ...
But the per die cost even after testing, packaging, etc, is certainly well below $500 per die. Probably it is below $100 per die, certainly below $200 per die. Consider that AMD is selling CPUs at a profit for around $300 retail that are a bit smaller but on a slightly more expensive (probably, at least "higher performance", though it's from a different vendor so apples and oranges) process, and that includes AMD's margins, retailer margins, etc - and that many of the partially working (or fully working but sold as partially working to supply the demand for cheaper parts - reportedly their yields are very high so they're actually selling fully working parts as low end parts often) can be had for as little as $75. Margins may be lower on these parts, but they're probably still above zero.
So TL;DR chances are Tesla's (per-board, not including development etc) costs per HW3 chip is less than $100 each, though the total board level cost may be north of $500 (2x HW3 chips, plus 2x of everything to power them, RAM chips, flash storage, etc, plus the board itself and assembly / shipping / etc costs).
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Some new phenomenom in overpriced Vancouver with gas price. At around $2/liter is where most people start cutting back on travel.
Was out with friends and one of them forgot cash, so i asked someone with a car to taker her to the bank. His response "with gas at this price, no way". So I took her in my EV. I think an impression was made to the group at that moment. Freedom of movement is severely affected.
Was out with friends and one of them forgot cash, so i asked someone with a car to taker her to the bank. His response "with gas at this price, no way". So I took her in my EV. I think an impression was made to the group at that moment. Freedom of movement is severely affected.
Ehhhh, doubt it. Final assembly still appears to be the least efficient and most manual part of the line; there are already multiple lines just for Model 3; and doing two models on one line would probably slow things down. Everything ELSE is more likely to be shareable and adjustable between the models.
bdy0627
Active Member
Elon has said a couple of times that only a very small percentage of model S are being traded in for model 3. That's largely due to the price offered by Tesla being not generally competitive for a used model S. I sold mine via Vroom. I don't remember exactly, but I got a lot more from Vroom than Tesla offered for my S. The fact that Tesla has a small percentage of model S owners trading in their S with them for a model 3 does not mean that a small percentage of model S owners have sold their S for a model 3. I don't know what the percentage is, but it's certainly higher than the 2% that Elon mentioned have traded in with Tesla.
Same goes for buyers of the $35k short range model 3. They say they aren't getting very many orders for it, but is that because there is very little interest or because Tesla doesn't offer it online with the other trims? Customers have to go out of their way to learn that it is even available and then call to order it. Tesla are very strongly biasing what they are seeing. I'm very much ok with a low percentage of sales of the $35k model 3.
Same goes for buyers of the $35k short range model 3. They say they aren't getting very many orders for it, but is that because there is very little interest or because Tesla doesn't offer it online with the other trims? Customers have to go out of their way to learn that it is even available and then call to order it. Tesla are very strongly biasing what they are seeing. I'm very much ok with a low percentage of sales of the $35k model 3.
If there is a TMC member with some twitter clout (I have none sadly) that would kindly tweet Elon to ask: "Will P100D orders that are currently in transit get ludacris included?" I would be supremely grateful. The OA's in the stores seem quite confused.
Not practical vs not possible.
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