I think that killing the 75 was because they ran out of some component that was going to change with the new configurations. You can now order "standard range" again.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think they were trying out things - and when one thing didn't work, they tried something else.
May be they should just do deals than change prices. This is what others do - and people are used to it.
No.
Q3 2018 + Q4 + Q1 + Q2 positive requires too high a profit in Q2 to be likely.
Q4 + Q1 + Q2 + Q3 is a possibility, but requires great Q2 and Q3.
Q1 + Q2 + Q3 + Q4 is a possibility, but I doubt it.
Q2 + Q3 + Q4 + Q1 2020 seems extremely likely, so S&P inclusion in 2020 probably.
Haven't they finished yet?Safety. Can't afford to risk the company against adverse events.
BTW, has anyone posted this yet?
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Sean Wagner
Member
That's the conundrum to me. While it's smart to keep the enterprise lean and clean of ballast [I don't like mean companies], even a very lithe and agile Tesla may fare badly in a downturn. So if Musk does both [ie. also raises capital], kudos to him. Timing really need not be as perfect as Alan Mulally's at Ford when he securitized just about everything possible just before the last crisis, enabling the company to live another day and have a shot at survival.
The bigger the Tesla brand the more detractors you have and the noise will multiply almost exponentially. For us "old timers" we've seen this with Model S. Now it's just way more because of the 3.
OT:
But it wasn't a commercial success. It was only really "saved" when Jobs forced Apple to purchase it as a condition to his returning to save the company.
That's correct. But think about the results.
The result of smoothing everything out is that the average (mean) days in transit predicts how many cars there will be in transit.
What Tesla *was* doing was producing for China, shipping, producing for the EU, shipping, then producing for the East Coast, shipping, and then producing for California and shipping, so that all the cars landed at the end of the quarter and there was essentially nothing in transit. Artificially low numbers in transit.
Unwinding this leads to higher, more *normal* numbers of cars in transit.
Puzzling indeed. Another one I don't understand
TSLA 2019Q1 shareholder letter said:
What has a future resale value guarantee to do with a negative revenue impact today?
Also : was gross margin calculated on this deflated number? Likely doesn't change the number that much, but still. Sounds weird to me.
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Pezpunk
Active Member
to be honest i understand where he's coming from. the Model S for example has had constant incremental improvements, but it's still basically the same car from 2012 in terms of interior and exterior styling (nosecone excepted).
the counterarguments are:
- The software has improved by leaps and bounds
- The battery and drivetrain (performance, reliability, life expectancy, and range) have improved by leaps and bounds
- The electronics hardware (computer capabilities and responsiveness) have improved dramatically
- The self-driving capabilities (both hardware and software) have improved tremendously as well, and cars built today with the 3.0 computer and camera suite are phenomenally, revolutionarily more capable than 2012 Model S vehicles.
although the cars LOOK virtually identical to the 2012 car (again, nosecone aside), every tangible feature -- performance, range, reliability, self-driving, UI, even handling and ride feel, have improved a ton.
it's not fair, but humans just aren't going to fully register all those accomplishments without a significant visible refresh of the interior and/or exterior of the vehicle. it's dumb, but unless Elon has a plan to make humans less dumb, it's something that has to be accounted for and catered to (assuming the plan is still to sell cars to humans).
Good to hear the "institutional view". I visualize you as a small glass fronted skyscraper.
They said that and gave no detail. I really hope there doesn't turn out to be another supply bottleneck, but given Tesla's history, I wouldn't bet on it. Come Q2 report, I wouldn't be at all surprised if something else was bottlenecking them below their targeted production rate. This is my primary cross-fingers worry.
I'm pretty confident they're telling the truth. There's several alternative data providers (no I'm not going to tell you which!) that monitor Tesla production very accurately. I've seen a big step up since mid-March.
Instead of dumping people out, why not wait for a minute to reach a remote driver?
That guy needs a intervention ...he is seriously mentally ill.
Part of the bond sales was recorded to equity on a speculative basis due to the accounting for conversion features. Paying off the bond was then reduction in equity, and due to the elimination of most forms of "other comprehensive income" in a recent GAAP change, it ended up in operating cash flow. I think that's right! (Sigh. The accounting rules here are ugly and I may be totally wrong)
The revenue from the car was originally reduced by the allowance for the resale value guarantee, i.e. the booked revenue was revenue - (expected value of buyback). The expected buybacks just increased -- they expect more people to take advantage of the resale value guarantee-- so it has to be booked as a retroactive reduction in revenue, which is accumulated and dumped on the balance sheet this quarter.
They expect more people to use the RVG because the market value of their old cars just dropped with the price cuts to the comparable new versions of Model S and X. In fact, I expect to see a second charge like this in Q2 due to the introduction of the "new" Model S and X reducing the value of the old Model S and X again.
Thanks, that's super helpful.
Ha! I just happened to check out the current Model S Standard Range, and it outperforms my 2012 P85 in every way for about half the price.
Yep. You can't reach the goal if you're dead.
Let's not kid ourselves about the potential for adverse events to slam Tesla. Picture an all-out trade war with the EU, for example. That would seriously, seriously hurt. You have to have cash reserves to deal with the unexpected.
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