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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

thx1139

Active Member
Aug 1, 2014
1,010
2,862
Lemont, IL
Lol, you have an oddly selective view. Yesterday Elon said the stock market is manic depressive. I think this proves he reads this forum. o_O

Firstly, he deliberately focused on US deliveries in 2018H2 in order to maximize US residents access to incentives. I believe his words last year were "We will do the right thing". That was a choice, and was motivated by good will. Same as Tesla sending powerwalls on priority delivery to Puerto Rico. The man is altruistic beyond doubt.

2019Q1 was a good plan, with a reasonable chance of success. Biggest hiccup was Panasonic under-delivering bty cells. To remedy that, Tesla will buy Maxwell becoming the sole source of the world's most advanced lithium battery cells. But it'll take time. Elon's will take that time. Will you? He says 'Maxwell bty day' will be later this year or next. That's how long it'll take. For reals.

Second biggest hiccup was delayed deliveries. 1-time teething pains can be expected, but not planned for in advance. But now those extra Euros and Yuan are safely in the bank, and production, shipments, and deliveries will go forward in a steadier stream.

Tesla doesn't need a capital raise urgently, they started Q2 with $2.2 B in cash and guided for positive FCF in Q2. With GF3/Shanghai already funded from local ABS bonds, there's no financial pressure there either, just tremendous latent demand for the best EV in the world. Let's wait and see what capital requirements are for Model Y production. Should be decided in a few weeks. Then the capital requirements can be assessed.

As far as "seriously raised uncertainty about the sustainable demand levels", Tesla was working on a major S/X production refit throughout Q1. So the problem is just they didn't tell everyone in advance? Osbourne here often? Or is it supposed to happened overnight?

Look I understand you feel disappointed in Q1 but both Elon and Tesla are working in good faith as fast as possible. NOT ONE SINGLE other company on earth made even remotely similar progress in even the past 10 years as Tesla did in the last 2 quarters.

Tesla and Elon should be congratulated for their achievement, not micro-managed by Thursday-morning Quarterbacks. Elon also this has long-standing guidance for investors: "If you don't like volatility, sell our stock".

Cheers!

I really think the biggest hiccup was all the price changes in Q1. They just had 2 many. I think it disrupts people and causes people to hold off. Especially during the 1st qtr of the year when in places with wintery conditions lots of people dont want to buy cars. I have only ever bought 1 car in winter and that was because it was our 1st car and well we needed at least 1 car. Other then that we have never bought a car with snow on the ground.
 

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
62,627
Ithaca, NY, USA
This reddit user bring up a good point
Was stuck in a backup due to an accident and had been behind this motorcycle for the past 30 minutes or so using autopilot. At 0:38 in the video you can see it looks as though AP has confused the motorcycle with the Volvo behind it and starts to pull forward before I intervened to avoid hitting him. : teslamotors

I was kind of surprised when they said they were training the system to recognize two different objects as one. A bike mounted on a car is one car. This is one of those instances where humen trains the ai in the wrong way. Edge cases will interfere with each other.
Agreed. :-(

Which is why, I am not very optimistic about the NN time line and that it is a linear progress not an exponential progress.

Sublinear.

That said, "best driver assist on the market by a huge factor" really should be worth a lot.
 

Toumal

Member
Mar 9, 2016
204
971
Austria
The whole bear case ultimately rests on a single assumption: That there is no significant demand for electric cars.
That's what it boils down to, really. Any past demand can be explained by "that's all the demand there is, and now it has been filled". Any future demand doesn't exist, because nobody wants electric cars.

The reason why every single possible competitor is a "Tesla killer" is because there is only a world market for 20.000 EVs so someone like Audi, already having 20.000 reservations, has gobbled up all there is to sell. QED.

If you believe that nobody wants EVs in general, and the Model 3 in particular, then bankwupcy is the only logical conclusion. We have plenty of people in online forums who believe that the e-tron has a higher range, more performance and more units sold than the Model S and X combined (point in case: Current comment section on Electrek, current comment section on heise.de) so of course you'd be stupid to even consider buying a Tesla, regardless of Model.

On one hand, the desirability of the Model 3 is something that is hard to measure, and a lot of people simply haven't cottoned on to what the Model 3 is, what it can do, and how fun it is to drive. They heard horror stories or hype stories, and even worse, some people think it's a concept car that is not being sold yet (true story!)

I think you have to be ignorant to believe there's no demand for the Model 3. You have to have no clue, no experience, and a considerable bias against Tesla or electric mobility. The question is whether the potential demand can be realized, or if the detractors are successful in inhibiting adoption - or rather, how successful they are in slowing things down. Everything else is just noise - including tens of thousands of cars slipping from one quarter to another. The real question is: Will potential customers find out the facts about the Model 3 over the next few months? Or will they be detracted by the actions of detractors or even Tesla's own actions.
 

Cloxxki

Active Member
Aug 20, 2016
1,362
147
Rotterdam
You keep using this phrase, despite:

- You not being the sole arbiter of what's needed

- Ignoring issues pointed out to you previously, such as:

- Cold weather reducing range by 1/3rd or more

- People living in areas more geographically spread out than you may

- Fast charging is not yet ubiquitous nor spaced such that cars with 28kWh pack can drive in a significant number of areas

- Etc...

You continue to ignore these issues.

(Didn't I earlier say I was justified in ignoring these responses? Character flaw of mine...)
I've addressed all I think. You just don't like my answers which is fine.
I command your energy in attacked whom you seem to be identifying as a troll but if you look a little deeper in my writing you'll find that I just hold TSLA and its fans to higher standards. I dare say I know my *sugar*.
People often make the error of identifying someone with an opinion and deciding to debate them, taking the opposite stance. The fundamental flaw with this is that they don't first consider how much thought may have gone into the presented opinion. And the opposite stance is taking from a desire to debate, perhaps even confidence that debate can make a losing stance win, without the benefit of said forethought.
Just give it up or come with better arguments. Or better: open your mind and reconsider your position. In debate we try to convince the other. Sometimes we need to be the ones convinced. I will admit I'd have to change my stance on many things I felt very passionately about, but had done insufficient research on.
 

Chocochip

Supporting Member
Nov 17, 2017
794
8,120
UK
We are very close to green already - I can see why TSLAQ folks would be losing their *sugar*. If TSLA is so resilient after a bad quarter, they have no hope ever seeing their $50 - $100 puts in the money.
This may be the reverse of the bulls' reaction yesterday when the letter was (eventually) released: "F* it, I'm done with this stock!"
 
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Cloxxki

Active Member
Aug 20, 2016
1,362
147
Rotterdam
The whole bear case ultimately rests on a single assumption: That there is no significant demand for electric cars.
Some analysts try that a little bit, but not exactly convincingly. It's not about demand, we can't deny that governments have signed the death certificate on ICEVs and now the transition needs to be made, or administration filed before that time.
 

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
62,627
Ithaca, NY, USA
It is encouraging to hear that. A decent comparison is Q4 2018, which was a blockbuster quarter with 90,700 deliveries. In transit coming into Q4 was very similar to now at 8,000 (Q4) vs 8,400. Deliveries target this quarter (90,000+) is very similar to what was delivered in Q4 (90,700).
In order to unwind the "wave", however, Tesla has to change from drawing down in-transit numbers (as they did in Q4) to ramping up in-transit numbers. In other words, they have to produce about 10000 - 15,000 more cars than they did in Q4.

This depends on getting enough cells and not hitting any further bottlenecks at Fremont.

Based upon what they are saying, so far this first month is showing higher deliveries even than the first month of Q4. It will be quite an amazing reversal from Q1 if Tesla is able to hit guidance for Q2, which is higher than I was expecting, but very much needed to hit the 360,000+ guidance for the entire year.
 

myt-e-s-l-a

Member
Jan 3, 2019
251
798
10280 , 91101
On Mar 22, 2019
...

New position for Q1 earnings play and Q1 softer deliveries.Q1 has been preannounced as “not as profitable” by EM. Let’s see how bad it is in 10 days. Will recalibrated afterwards

SOLD TSLA 190426 250 put 3x @ 13.90/contract.
Max profit 4170$

Well played.
Closed above position for a huge profit $3885

BUY to Close TSLA 190426 250 put 3x @ .95/contract.

Added 15.17 free tsla shrs @256 to Long acct.
 

jerry33

(S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20
Mar 8, 2012
19,705
22,701
Texas
Am I right in saying that turned out the reason for S/X sales falling off a cliff is largely production, and we have no evidence that demand fell off as much?
In my opinion, it's largely the elimination of the 75 battery option which accounted for just under half the sales. Any sales not accounted for are because of the lack of refresh which made the S/X appear less appealing than the 3. That should now turn around. I'm pretty sure the original plan was that there would be enough 3 to more than cover the S/X reduction, but because of battery constraints that didn't happen.
 

Cloxxki

Active Member
Aug 20, 2016
1,362
147
Rotterdam
You are conveniently forgetting that charge and power rates are lower with smaller packs. Also you are increasing cycle rate so overall battery life gets shorter.

The only advantage to smaller battery is weight that you have to carry around, that is it.
Not at all. Charge rate have come a long way. Well, sortof.
Model 3 built in 2017 can take >3C. S and X delivered until now peaked at 1.5C, recent cars 1.1C, to be upgraded OTA to 1.4C.
Let's not pretend Tesla doesn't have the tech to make a 60 kWh car charge at 180 kW.
And let's not forget that Porsche is openly targeting for closer to 4C.

Doubling the C rate of a pack (cooling is a factor) does impact cost to a slight extend, but in the long run not by much. Case in point, Tesla boasting the cheapest cells and packs on the market and >3C. This sets the bar, to themselves and their (education of) customers foremost.

With double the charge rate between cars, in region where the majority of BEV customers live being well covered by DC chargers, a smaller battery simply suffices for the same overall travel speed. Most days are well under a single charge even on base Teslas. Longer days tend to be vastly longer and may need multiple stops. The double charge rate halves stop times and even with a 25% or more reduced capacity, range suffices to make it to the next charge with a wooden bum that calls for a walk off to get circulation back. I can't see myself survive 3 hours on end in the back of a Model 3, for instance. Happy to take a walk after less than two. And we'd travel 1,000 km in much less time, if in a hurry.
 

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
62,627
Ithaca, NY, USA
Am I right in saying that turned out the reason for S/X sales falling off a cliff is largely production, and we have no evidence that demand fell off as much?
Unfortunately, we do have some evidence that demand dropped, in that there was an inventory buildup of S & X in Q1.

Within the US, the tax credit pullforward effect appears to have been very substantial (more than expected?) and probably accounts for more than all of the demand drop -- sales were really unusually high in Q4.

That said, the evidence is that sales dropped much more overseas than in the US in Q1. (I forget who got those numbers.) S&X have always been huge cars for Europe and cannibalization by Model 3 might be expected to be higher in Europe? Or it might have been *delivery* problems rather than production problems -- actually, I believe this.

So I think it's largely production retooling, partly delivery failures, and the expected tax credit hangover. There may have been some underlying demand drop; I figure the new longer range will address a lot of that, though European preference for smaller cars may still have an effect.
 

Remus

Active Member
Apr 14, 2016
1,381
6,326
California
In order to unwind the "wave", however, Tesla has to change from drawing down in-transit numbers (as they did in Q4) to ramping up in-transit numbers. In other words, they have to produce about 10000 - 15,000 more cars than they did in Q4.

This depends on getting enough cells and not hitting any further bottlenecks at Fremont.
Given a much calmer Elon on Twitter this several months, he must have been pretty annoyed to call out Panasonic
 
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