Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

New 52wk low. Whole market is in an uptrend and TSLA is one of the only in a downtrend with no signs of relief

OK, so we got one of the yearly extremes broken, now its time to focus on the other one!
How long before we break the 52 week high ?
3 months maybe, 6 months definitely !?

 

[ZeApelido]

When did they order all tooling and equipment for the Model 3?

BTW I ask this because I still get the feeling they are sandbagging the beginning of Model Y production date, to not Osborne Model 3/X sales. From some news articles, seems like tooling and equipment were ordered in 2016 for a mid 2017 start.

I always thought they would start making Model Y in Fremont. Then they said Gigafactory but now are hedging. I don't know what the ploy is, but I still get the feeling Model is going into production in Q1 or Q2 2020 in Fremont.

 

[bdy0627]

The big problem is that there isn't a lot to counter this until the Q2 earnings report. Three month wait. Maybe two months if they at least meet their delivery guidance.

Pickup truck is going to be treated like Model Y reveal and Autonomy Investor Day since there's no immediate impact for Tesla. FUD is probably going to hit peak insanity and the media doesn't care enough to correct it.

Wildcard is maybe FSD, but it's hard to imagine significant software updates in the short term that show at least parity with Waymo and Cruise (even though they are rigging their system with lidar, HD mapping, and geofencing)

Probably won't take that long to move based upon market expectations. There will be signs and the market participants will position themselves accordingly. My guess would be about 4-6 weeks before moving based upon Q2 expectations. If deliveries are going well, I wouldn't be surprised to see some leaks...

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Is this good news or bad?

He'd tweeted on April 12th 2019 that RHD orders would begin within a few weeks and deliveries begin June or July.
(Although, he incorrect wrote LHD at first).
Expected, but likely a reaction to today's share nosedive.

Twitter

 

[Boomer19]

I'm noticing call prices are holding pretty stable through this last 5 point dip. I'm specifically looking at July $300 calls. It's not dropping in unison with the stock as it did earlier.

i managed to get a couple more nov 315c
the IV was 48% yesterday and is about 49.2% after today’s drop

also bought some more shares in batches. too good to pass up. still reserves for a sharper move downward

 

[anthonyj]

Now that Musk's realized that he might need more capital it will cost Tesla and it's shareholders a lot more. This has been a predictable outcome from the start, and if I could see it, why couldn't Musk or the board?

He probably thought Q3 would break TSLA's ATH and then he would raise at $450+

 

[mongo]

A $2B equity raise at $200/share would dilute current SP by about $2.67. It would be nice if they just did that instead of watching the SP slide on its own.

A 2 billion raise that goes into infrastructure (or other assets) increases the value of the company and thus the stock value would stay the same. If that infrastructure is a revenue generating factory, the value of the stock would go up.

Of course, selling at a discount impacts those numbers...

They will have to do that anyway when S/X switches to 2170.

If the Maxwell tech works, there would be no need to switch to 2170s. Improved 18650s would allow reuse of the current pack/ module design. Including a capacity improvement even if they deleted one or both of the front double stack modules.

 

[Causalien]

The big problem is that there isn't a lot to counter this until the Q2 earnings report. Three month wait. Maybe two months if they at least meet their delivery guidance.

Pickup truck is going to be treated like Model Y reveal and Autonomy Investor Day since there's no immediate impact for Tesla. FUD is probably going to hit peak insanity and the media doesn't care enough to correct it.

Wildcard is maybe FSD, but it's hard to imagine significant software updates in the short term that show at least parity with Waymo and Cruise (even though they are rigging their system with lidar, HD mapping, and geofencing)

Seeing where things stand now. The truck unveil won't do a thing. Keep it as the "one more thing" moment. No need to unveil until you can get it the next day.

 

[LytHka]

How do you figure? Current market cap is ~ $43b, $200 a share would be an 18.7% discount to current SP (200/246). That would value the equity at roughly $35b. Add in the $2b in cash received and the value should theoretically be somewhere around $37b. Seems like it would come out to more than $2.67 per share dilution. Rough math, am I missing something here?

$200 is a hypothetical discount price to potential investors, not saying Tesla would offer that much discount. But it wouldn't make sense for them to do an equity raise too close to actual SP otherwise investors could just buy at the open market. It wouldn't change the value of the open market SP.

Theoretical diluted value = ((O x OP)+(N x IP))/(O + N)

O = original number of shares = 173,710,000
OP = Current share price = $249.08
N = number of new shares to be issued = 10,000,000
IP = issue price of new shares = $200.00

You can plug those numbers in if you want.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Interesting. Do you have a source for that? I always wondered if it was conscious or unconscious EV backlash (“Hey greenies! Look at my giant air-breathing grille!”).

Not specifically, no, but they were introduced around the same time as the Mirai(which has a similar grille), and such grilles are necessary for HFCVs.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I've never seen such insanity about the true value of a company. No doubt a lot of shorters and idiots, and plain old manipulators are trying to drive it even lower today, but in the days and weeks to come sanity will prevail.
Every day that goes by puts another 1,000 people in a new tesla, who will likely be tesla customers for life, and every day that goes by is another day when the audi e-tron has still not made any progress whatsoever, and another day of learning data for better autopilot.

I have short term shares and long term. I'd like to get out of the short term ones (im currently sitting on a loss on them, and paying overnight fees as they are on margin), but my long term ones will be held at least a decade, come what may. I'm sick of the insane manipulation around such an innovative company.

 

[humbaba]

I see no bank affiliation on Tesla's website. In the car design studio, there's an option to pay via loan or cash or lease. I'm specifically concerned about the loan. Do you know off-hand which bank Tesla uses for this process?

That depends, Tesla isn't bound to use only a single bank. Mine is with ... dang, the name escapes me. A major bank, but not one I've ever done business with.

Why are you concerned?

 

[RoadsterPlease]

just doubled down, best buying price since 2017 for me

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I know that Tesla and especially Elon are against giving monthly deliveries/production numbers but IF they are thinking about doing a cap raise at the end of Q2 or Q3, it's in their best interest to give monthly updates during Q2 to show that they are in fact tracking towards their guidance. They're saying that they will unwind the "wave" during Q2(or least start unwinding) and they need to show it. They have lost a lot of credibility with their estimates at this point and practically no one thinks they're going to hit 90k deliveries....and def not 100k deliveries in Q2.

 

[LytHka]

Conversely if Tesla had raised during Q4 last year they could have raised $5B with a $1.52/sh dilution going from $370->$368.48/sh. Imagine what shape the stock would be in now, but hindsight is always 20/20.

Edit: prounouns

 

[jhm]

Scooping up more shares at $247.

The thing about the stock price dropping before a capital raise is that it will rebound after the raise is complete. I suspect that the SP has lacked for upside because Tesla has been on this capital diet. So I think breaking this capital fast will do a lot of good for the share price.

 

[elasalle]

I know that Tesla and especially Elon are against giving monthly deliveries/production numbers but IF they are thinking about doing a cap raise at the end of Q2 or Q3, it's in their best interest to give monthly updates during Q2 to show that they are in fact tracking towards their guidance. They're saying that they will unwind the "wave" during Q2(or least start unwinding) and they need to show it. They have lost a lot of credibility with their estimates at this point and practically no one thinks they're going to hit 90k deliveries....and def not 100k deliveries in Q2.

Even GM etc stopped doing monthly ...
I think Alpha Hat etc are already providing these kind of services to them ...

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Keeping an eye on TSLA, will liquidate all remaining 45 out of 400 shares on a move upwards.
I've taken a position in ARKK and will sit on that for awhile and see how it goes.
I'm not anticipating touching TSLA again for another 60 days minimum to ensure that all losses are fully booked, after that I will move into short term plays around big news like earnings reports to harvest short term gains. I have no further interest in holding TSLA long term until S&P 500 inclusion seems imminent or GF3 approaches completion, so likely Q4 2019 at the earliest before I consider ever holding TSLA again.
Sorry Elon, you treat your shareholders like crap and you're a massive loose cannon. It's put up or shut up time in terms of actually proving you create shareholder value.
Anyone want to play ROKU with me going into earnings? Could be a fun flip for quick gains.

 

[KSilver2000]

Seeing where things stand now. The truck unveil won't do a thing. Keep it as the "one more thing" moment. No need to unveil until you can get it the next day.

Umm. They should have been doing that for everything instead of showing things that are 2-3 years out as if it’s a concept for something.

 

[X Fan]

Regarding Panasonic building 2170 capacity in Japan, this concerns me because it means they don't see a clear route to optimizing the already installed capacity at GF1. One issue may be finding enough quality workers in Nevada. GF expansion must have soaked up a large portion of the work force already.

RE: Japan...due to declining & aging of their population I don't think the worker situation for Panasonic there is much different.