Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[commasign]

Selling TSLA now is like selling cause Iron Man II and Incredible Hulk kinda sucked. Stick around for the Endgame folks.

 

[larmor]

Ferrari makes 8k car a year, has market cap of 30B and a PE of 30. Yeah.. no fuss over the valuation here eh?

Why did the informational session of FSD have 'investor' in the title? They are trying to change the concept that tesla is an automobile company. What i understood from a 30,000 ft (or perhaps 300,000 ft) view is that they are making their own CPU/GPU and essentially you are not buying a car, but buying the hardware and software to run the car. Good comparison to ferrari, but soon to compare tesla with chipmaker and software maker.

 

[SOULPEDL]

It's all my brother's fault - he cancelled his order for his $35K barebones (ordered through sales office, yes you can order these, just not online). He claims there was no clear delivery data, many months away. At least we're not giving them away.

Did we hear anything in the ER on current Model 3 margins?

 

[DarrenHD]

.



Had Doubts myself. Had same thoughts today. Account is back to like 2015 numbers for me. ( I am now like 45-50% TSLA, 25% increase happened after the 420 debacle, each time thinking it was gonna get better ...)

However, I sold Jul covered-calls for 280
Added more Jan 21 calls (Accumulation in this is strong) ...

I don't know, I see nothing in the short term to move the stock up...it could go as low as 180 before turning around. I just wasn't prepared to hold paper losses, so I sold at a very small gain. I will keep watching to see what happens. I'm also not buying into this robotaxi talk, at least not for next year.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I've just bought another 50. I now must be one of Tesla's biggest shareholders, I own 7 millionths of the company!

I have a $350,000 share holding in Tesla

There are only four outcomes here. For theoretical purposes, lets give all four outcomes an equal weighting:
- Tesla goes bankrupt and I lose all my money.
- Tesla grows slowly to become "only" another car company in which EVs will always make up a small percentage of total vehicle sales. In which case based on competitor valuations, current valuation is more or less fair, therefore I hold my money, but gain nothing
- Tesla grows to sell over 10 million vehicles per year and heavily disrupts in car industry and energy storage and solar energy also take off. In which case, within 10 years, valuation is likely to be $300-500bn. My share holding becomes worth $3m
- Tesla does the above and also robotaxis change the world, valuation likely to be $2trillion. My share holding becomes worth $15m

Elon Musk has deliberately designed the business strategy in that Tesla can win via a number of different ways. Either scaling the cars, or via autonomous taxis, or via energy storage and solar. They don't all have to come off in order to win, only one or two have to come off big time.

It seems to me that the only way the current share price of Tesla is justified is if the market is given a 90% possibility to Tesla going bankrupt. If a private investor does not agree with this, and has available capital, they would be a fool not to invest in Tesla

This is like saying Amazon is going to dominate online book sales and do well selling other retail goods on the side. You are greatly underestimating to potential market, it's 65% of all energy and transport globally.

Think of HDTVs as solar. Not too long ago a 42" 720p plasma was $6000, then it got down below $1000 and people lost their minds. That's where energy is right now, $1000 42" Sony's. Moderate incremental progress from here and the "energy" piece will be essentially free. The companies capable of providing services to manage and store that energy will be the only folks making money in the industry. Trillions and trillions of dollars.

Cars will be the afterthought. Technically I guess you can still get books on Amazon.

 

[X Fan]

Bought a bunch at 242 and added $25K of ARKK.

 

[WarpedOne]

Why would anyone short at this level? That sounds as ill-informed as buying in at 375-380. Unless it's big players and/or small haters trying to break the stock.

We are still questioning what is going on after 5 years of this insanity?
We are still trying to see the reason in this insanity?
We still want to believe TSLA is an investment?

Wake up and smell the coffee... TSLA is an ideological battlefield and SP is not showing who is winning.
What is certain is there will be tears and lives lost.

 

[Mike Smith]

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

 

[SOULPEDL]

Why did the informational session of FSD have 'investor' in the title? They are trying to change the concept that tesla is an automobile company. What i understood from a 30,000 ft (or perhaps 300,000 ft) view is that they are making their own CPU/GPU and essentially you are not buying a car, but buying the hardware and software to run the car. Good comparison to ferrari, but soon to compare tesla with chipmaker and software maker.

Ya well chips aren't doing so hot either with Intel down to low 50's overnight.

 

[PANN]

Want to remind everybody that you are seeing these SP levels because there are ~$10B keep draging it downwards, the real SP is much higher. Once you see through this, you will be calm and refuse to be manipulated by shorts.

 

[keydiver]

Wow, just when you think the shorts can't stoop any lower, they pull this out of their desk drawer:

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I don't know, I see nothing in the short term to move the stock up...it could go as low as 180 before turning around. I just wasn't prepared to hold paper losses, so I sold at a very small gain. I will keep watching to see what happens. I'm also not buying into this robotaxi talk, at least not for next year.

• SEC settles with zero action against Elon. (60% likely)
• EV tax credit cap removed. (40% likely in an election cycle where deficits aren't being counted)
• More fleet merging deals signed.
• 2Q Model 3 production/delivery rebound.

Awfully gloomy around here considering you can buy a $35k Model 3 RIGHT NOW. My prediction is bullet 2 above causing the long-awaited short squeeze if it lands right after good M3 production/demand figures are released.

I'm not buying the robo-nonsense for next year either. I think it'll be possible, but who's going to allow it at scale? Maybe they'll do airport runs in Denver or something.

 

[anthonyj]

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

Obvious typo on the % of float shorted

 

[AMN]

Just picked up 500 shares in the 240.6-240.8 spread. This stuff is great! Will buy more if we get in $230s.
Cheers to all.

edit: ladies and gents, I strongly suspect there is quite a bit of naked shorting taking place, so hold on tight for a week, those positions will be covered.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Someone on Reddit found Tesla’s insurance paperwork.

New Tesla Insurance Program Filing in California 4,037 pages : RealTesla

It is a collaboration with State National insurance.

Interesting. Looks like NoA would, indeed, meet level 3 requirements under that doc.

EDIT: Also, if you have FSD or EAP package, you’d get 15% discount. AP only would get you 10%.

 

[Curt Renz]

Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave International is currently conducting a free webinar on its form of technical analysis.

Link : How to Spot Reliable Trade Setups in Any Market and Any Time Frame :: Elliott Wave International

You can choose to enter the webinar now in real time or to start from the beginning.

Bob was one of my first guests on my old TV show. We have endorsed each other's books.

 

[Boomer19]

Wow, just when you think the shorts can't stoop any lower, they pull this out of their desk drawer:

i wouldve thought she’d been corralled back to the farm by now. she’s a slippery one

 

[ZachF]

Lol, Tesla is massively vertically integrated. They even make their own seats. The other major manufacturer's are mostly GA lines plus an engine line. Compare apples to watermelon.

Cheers!

I don't think NUMMI of old made engines or transmissions.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Wow, just when you think the shorts can't stoop any lower, they pull this out of their desk drawer:

Linette Lopez. Reeeeally wish the Apple Stocks app would list the writer of the article before you go to it. I’ve taken to just avoiding BI entirely most of the time to avoid giving her clicks.

 

[kbM3]

Unless we start getting sequential revenue increases at this stage the stock price is unlikely to reverse course,
Demand may be abstract term , however sequential revenue increases which are a function of
Demand and supply is the key variable.

Sequential revenue along with gross margin. All Tesla has to do is keep revenue growing, plus have a good outlook for 20+% gross margins.