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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I'm not so sure about EV tax credit. I'd like to believe, but the current administration, along with a good portion of congress don't care to invest in EVs.
POTUS and Congress don't care about anything.....except maintaining their position. I think the EV credit will be de-capped or otherwise expanded simply as a combination of mostly pandering and some progressive push. Climate change pandering will be HUGE this cycle.

At the State level we see them actively working to discourage their purchase.
State level reps rely entirely on the entities supporting their campaigns. In the instance of Pennsylvania, that's fracking interests. Not counting on them for much.
 
Market cap is approaching $40b with only two thirds of the shares on the stock exchange.
In other words, not much more than the combined market caps of Lyft (LYFT) and Shopify (SHOP), currently $15B and $22B, respectively. Crazy! If you had $40B, what would you rather own for the long term, Lyft and Shopify, or Tesla? Considered this way, I wonder if perhaps I should cash out of a bit of SHOP (which I bought low) and buy TSLA. Hmmm.
 
I'm not worried about Tesla dying, no matter what any of the idiot Q crowd says it's not worth 0... I'm worried about Tesla getting gobbled up by the wrong entity if the SP gets too low.

Why would it get gobbled up if Tesla/Musk doesn't want to sell it. Which in all likelihood they won't want to. As others are suggesting there is a lot of big money that I think can throw funds into this in preference to a buyout.
 
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Here's a question...

Market cap is approaching $40b with only two thirds of the shares on the stock exchange.

At what point can Elon friends just buy back the whole goddamn company? Either they could do it in one shot "Considering taking private at $280" or get some allies to steadily increase their institutional holdings? Obviously that would drive the share price back up...

3 friends with net worth over $50 billion (Larry Page*, Sergei, Larry Ellison)

a few single digit billionaire friends (Branson, Jeffrey Skoll, perhaps more)

of course, net worth is not same as liquid assets

then there is China... both the government itself and various companies/tech billionaires. while friend may not be quite the term to use, they have strong determination to see Tesla’s mission succeed (and, I think, it’s fair to say Elon is more appreciated by the government in China than in the US).

I look at this more as a potential cap raise group at this point, but, yes, if needed, potentially take private part 2.

*Worth noting that a few years back, Page publicly mused that if he were to be hit by a bus, leaving his money to Elon might be better than leaving it to charities given that with Elon the money would go to doing so many things Page believes in.
 
Why would it get gobbled up if Tesla/Musk doesn't want to sell it. Which in all likelihood they won't want to.

Hostile takeover. Elon does not have a controlling share in the company.

If people think GM's stupid Cruze technology is worth $14 billion, a large tech firm might be willing to pay much more for Tesla's self-driving IP alone. Buying a controlling share in Tesla if SP drops under $200 will be about that same amount (~$16b).
 
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Debating on trying to take advantage of the low stock price for probably the next 2-4 month. I'd welcome any chiming in.

I have a few buys in the 310-315 range. Thinking of selling those shares to book in the loss and then buying back those shares in 30 days. I'm pretty sure the stock won't be significantly higher in 30 days, definitely not back to 315/share. I know I'm going to be selling some other stocks later in the year and I will have gains on those stocks. So I'm thinking I might as well try to eliminate the tax I'll pay on those gains.

I was really hoping we'd get the SEC agreement yesterday. The fact that we didn't and the stock dropped another 10% between yesterday and today has me kicking myself for not doing my tax strategy sooner lol
 
Hostile takeover. Elon does not have a controlling share in the company.

If people think GM's stupid Cruze technology is worth $14 billion, a large tech firm might be willing to pay much more for Tesla's self-driving IP alone. Buying a controlling share in Tesla if SP drops under $200 will be about that same amount (~$16b).

But Elon still has a large stake and then only a minority of the remaining shareholders would need to vote against the takeover. I doubt it would get to that stage, but if it did I also doubt it would go further.
 
OK, TSLA for this one time give us the high April delivery count from the horses mouth and put some confidence back.

tweet from Tesla account, that due to investor concerns of demand, here are April numbers .. cheers
At this point it's about sufficient cash on hand to fund future projects. No way can they fund Semi, Roadster, Y, Pickup even if the lines were free. $2b in cash is insufficient for these projects. I bet he has funding lined up for a cap raise
 
My perspective on this. When I did my master thesis we could choose between doing Lidar SLAM or Camera SLAM. We choose Lidar because we felt it suited us better compared to the other team who were more suited for the camera project.

The camera team had it somewhat easier because they could pretty much just download ORBSLAM and have a fancy demo running without too much work. We as the Lidar team had struggle with many of the steps ourselves, such as key point extraction and feature descriptors, which back then was far from trivial. But we had an easier time with particle filters etc for positioning.

It seems that we have two fields converging:
- Probabilistic Robotics, Sebastian Thrun et al. Particle filter, graphSLAM and classical hand made tools trying a little bit of Machine Learning
- Computer Vision, Andrej Karpathy et al. CNN and other computer science tools trying a little bit of Robotics

The probabilistic robotics guys love their Lidars, it works in the same bird’s eye framework as they see the world. The Computer Vision guys love their cameras, the input comes in a nice structured matrix, the same way as they see the world.

We are now seeing deep learning making great depth maps out of camera images and we are seeing classical point clouds from camera images making great object detections. The first runs great on GPUs/TPUs, the latter will complicate how to pipe the code a lot... But the main takeaway is that the two fields are starting to overlap. A very interesting fusion of domains that will confuse a lot of people in both domains.

We are at a time where we have a lot more computer scientists coding than we have roboticists coding, but we have more roboticists building vehicles than we have computer scientists building vehicles. Cameras are cheaper, they are passive sensors. Lidars are getting cheaper fast but there will likely always be a difference of some magnitudes. Lidars rely less on intelligence, if you don’t get a reading in front of you, you can be pretty certain that there is free space in front of you. But with some clever software and a gigantic amount of data the camera is catching up. Thus the price and power benefits starts to favor the camera.

Imo at this point, cameras are easier to work with but hard to do well. Lidars are hard to work with, but easier to do well. I think Teslas approach will turn out to be the right one and I am very impressed by Elon’s ability of coming to this conclusion much earlier than most other experts. I was wrong on this.
Comments like this are why I love this forum. Someone with intimate knowledge of a relevant topic willing to provide a great summary of the situation.