Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neroden]

Here's the 10 page thread on TMC on NEMA 14-50 adapters no longer being included

NEMA 14-50 adapter no longer included with vehicles

Well, that's $35 extra gross revenue per vehicle, but a lot of people will probably be pushed to spend $500, so from an investor point of view, more profit.

I don't think that's why Tesla did it; I think Tesla did it due to harassment emanating ultimately, from electrical code authorities, unfortunately. There's some real nonsense going on with bogus GFCI requirements (my electrical inspector was actually rolling his eyes at the "requirements" and telling my electrician to replace the GFCI breakers with non-GFCI breakers if there was another GFCI later in the chain).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well, do you tell them that they're just flat out wrong, that Tesla is profitable and has $4 billion in cash, and that even if something happened to the company there are so many cars on the road that someone else would just buy Tesla, like Google offered to do back in 2013? That's what I say. Tends to change their minds.

While the misinformation narrative is out there thanks to the bias media, with drastically more Tesla's out there thanks to 60k new model 3's every quarter, that false narrative gets remedied organically just by people seeing so many........herd mentality

 

[SPadival]

Guys, just remember that the plural of anecdote is not data.

Even though the positive anecdotes that I hear about both offline and online vastly outnumber the FUD, I will not cite that as evidence:

* Google search trend for Tesla is spiking up.
* Elon and Tesla have more followers on twitter than any other car maker.
* Some MobileEye videos on YouTube had 200 views while Tesla’s are at a minimum in 100ks.
* Various Consumer Reports surveys come with Tesla on top despite CR trying to spike the ball (they released a press release dissing the investor Autonomy day!!)
* Tesla was named the most-loved car brand by AutoTrader

Also remember that regulations in various countries are on the side of Tesla, even if paradoxically some of governments are not.

 

[Matias]

I honestly don’t understand, how it changed from “profitable every quarter from now on “ to “only ten months time to stop bleeding” in few months.

Can someone explain?

 

[ccorda]

I honestly don’t understand, how it changed from “profitable every quarter from now on “ to “only ten months time to stop bleeding” in few months.

Can someone explain?

Sep 29, 2018, in an email to employees with one day left in Q3:

We are very close to achieving profitability and proving the naysayers wrong, but, to be certain, we must execute really well tomorrow.
​

A month later they reported GAAP net income of $312M, non-GAAP net income of $516M.

Elon is prone to exaggeration, take statements and timing estimates with a grain of salt. He wants Tesla to stay on their Spartan diet even with 4B+ in the bank.

 

[kyzhk]

I honestly don’t understand, how it changed from “profitable every quarter from now on “ to “only ten months time to stop bleeding” in few months.

Can someone explain?

quote:

“This is a lot of money, but actually only gives us about 10 months at the Q1 burn rate to achieve breakeven!”

I think he is just trying to point out to the employee that 2.2 billion + ~2.3 billion cash they recently raised seems like a lot of money that could last a long time (to an individual thats way more money than needed to last a lifetime) - which is not true for a company at Tesla's scale and expenses.

I don't really think constantly sending messages to employee painting an urgent situation would have the desired effect EM hoped. He has sent too much of these emails in the past year that I think people are simply desensitized.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I’m pretty pumped that I now live near a Tesla factory. I hope to see caravans of Tesla semis loaded with dry electrode batteries driving down I-10 soon. It’s just too bad Fremont isn’t within the 500 mile range of the semi.

 

[schonelucht]

A ship arrived.

No. This is older inventory.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I honestly don’t understand, how it changed from “profitable every quarter from now on “ to “only ten months time to stop bleeding” in few months.

Can someone explain?

That’s probably because the latter isn’t what was said.

 

[Remus]

Let us know when customers start receiving those refreshed S/X. Been a few weeks now since they opened orders for them.

Based on information in this thread the delay was caused by regulation issue and it was already resolved as people began to take delivery.

 

[RobStark]

 

[dqd88]

I sure hope so, but didn't we already say that about 2018? and 2019?

Well last year, my thought was that 2019 could be a "down year" relatively speaking, namely due to the forward pushing of deliveries in late 2018 due to the tax credit phase out. I wish Elon would have conveyed the impact of pushing forward deliveries... he could have mitigated some damage by just saying last year "hey take an average of eps over Q3 2018 to Q2 2019". With the big beats on eps late last year that gave them some PR capital but they didn't spend it.
But to me it doesn't matter all that much as I am longer term. I would rather look at 2-3 year spans. Quarterly is slightly important, yearly is much more so but even that can be lumpy. 2019 may be a down year, 2020 will likely be up and 2021 will be way up and then probably exponential growth from there.

 

[Matias]

But to me it doesn't matter all that much as I am longer term. I would rather look at 2-3 year spans. Quarterly is slightly important, yearly is much more so but even that can be lumpy. 2019 may be a down year, 2020 will likely be up and 2021 will be way up and then probably exponential growth from there.

If someone would two or three years ago said, what the share price today is, no-one would have believed him here.

 

[dqd88]

@dqd88 : Agree with 'bdy0627' on this one. The SP may go to your range BUT those of us that have been around since 2015 have heard..'next year will be the year that the shorts get burned and the SP will skyrocket'.....Guess I am a bit jaded as the SBOTC turned into the LBOTC....

My advice: Diversify, consider ARKK If you like disruptive companies.

I digested a lot of arguments (mostly BS yes) from the short side. I think their point about the credit phase out has some merit. It was grossly exagerated by them BUT that doesn't mean the phase out has zero impact. And it's not even the impact of the phase out per se as much as the impact of how Tesla pulls forward deliveries to capture or maximally help the consumers exploit the credits.
There's sort of a round robin approach, where they started with closest region (US west coast, then rest of US) to optimize for US credit, then on the the same thing in other countries (this year in Norway et al), so shifting delivery momentum to outside US, which such narrative could be manipulated (as it was) to show a drop in demand. Anywho, I think after that bear thesis is fully flushed out and demand/deliveries normalized (this year and next) will we see major hikes in SP.
Also, more products (Roadster/Semi/Y) will help smooth out numbers.

 

[dqd88]

If someone would two or three years ago said, what the share price today is, no-one would have believed him here.

Agreed, I don't think anyone, myself included, thought we'd be this low. But then no one thought the Q1 miss would be as big as it was. So here we are. Long term, though it doesn't change much.
What is your prediction for SP range for rest of this year? Next year?

 

[Krugerrand]

Agree it's for melodramatically justifying any and all cost cuts to Tesla employees, but Elon also knows this will leak. From that perspective, isn't he also trying to signal extremely low Q2 expectations for the market? The email conveys a strong sense of urgency to improve the financials, as if to say they have not improved from Q1 yet. This suggests a worse Q2 financial expectation than he guided for a few weeks ago.

I just finished my tea and you need more practice, so here’s my cup.

 

[Causalien]

Guys, just remember that the plural of anecdote is not data.

Even though the positive anecdotes that I hear about both offline and online vastly outnumber the FUD, I will not cite that as evidence:

* Google search trend for Tesla is spiking up.
* Elon and Tesla have more followers on twitter than any other car maker.
* Some MobileEye videos on YouTube had 200 views while Tesla’s are at a minimum in 100ks.
* Various Consumer Reports surveys come with Tesla on top despite CR trying to spike the ball (they released a press release dissing the investor Autonomy day!!)
* Tesla was named the most-loved car brand by AutoTrader

Also remember that regulations in various countries are on the side of Tesla, even if paradoxically some of governments are not.

True Tesla gets more interests... We just need the millenials and the new zoomer generations to start getting rich so they can afford Tesla. I am appalled at the financial state of some of the girls I am dating which belongs to those generations. Even those who self proclaim to be good with money (i.e. spend only what they make and take a second job if they ever want to spend more) are still paying off their student loan.

 

[Matias]

What is your prediction for SP range for rest of this year? Next year?

No-one can know. I don't even try to predict. The only thing we know, is that in the long long (meaning during several decades) diversified stock portfolio is a good investement. So my only advice is; diversify. 10 % of my own investements are on Tesla and it is my limit.

 

[Krugerrand]

I actually don't agree with this when Elon knows damn well his emails will leak to the media. Every communication of his will have multiple effects, well beyond the direct recipient. He would do well to consider that and use that power to improve perception of Tesla's financial condition rather than actually fanning the fire. I already have a couple of friends who have driven my model 3 and love it, but expressed major reservations, not about the vehicle, but about buying it from a company they perceive to be in dire straits financially. They don't spend time trying to find forums to dig up information about Tesla like we do. They just hear that Tesla is burning massive amounts of cash and may run out soon, possible bankruptcy, yada yada. It makes them extremely hesitant to buy a Tesla. I can't say I blame them for being gunshy about buying a vehicle with technology that is already quite unknown to them when the company producing them, by all apparent accounts, appears to be on the verge of financial collapse. Elon continues to help foster that narrative. It's great to keep trying to cut costs and control expenses, but it's damaging to the public perception of Tesla to over-dramatize the challenging financial situation it is in.

Right. He’s suppose to beat around the bush, hedge every word, and basically bs his employees because one of them can’t follow the simply rule of not leaking information to the media, so that the crooks, thieves and bandits of this world can’t twist his words, make crap up and manipulate the SP. Oh, wait...

Here’s the truth of the matter. He’s not going to change and he shouldn’t have to to make you or anyone else happy because you wouldn’t actually be happy with the result of him changing. You just think you would because you aren’t realizing the gain in your investment that you think you should have to this point. And rather than place the blame on the shoulders of the manipulating money men, you want to blame the guy who’s doing what no one else dared to do. You want that one guy to bend over.

Here’s another truth. People will perceive whatever they feel like perceiving; the media, you, your friends, me. I wouldn’t care how many times you told me the sky is falling, I’m going to look for myself and verify before taking your word for it. If your friends want to listen to and believe the media’s narrative of Tesla’s financial state, that’s on them for not being independently informed or caring to be. Any time they want to take personal responsibility for gathering accurate information that’d be awesome.

FYI, I don’t perceive the email to be an overdramatization. It seems pretty straightforward to me. Keep cutting unnecessary costs and increase efficiencies, we’re going to check every expenditure so get your individual houses in order or you’ll have some explaining to do, money doesn’t grow on trees and thusly we can not afford a repeat of Q1. Simple. Fact based.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here’s the truth of the matter. He’s not going to change and he shouldn’t have to to make you or anyone else happy because you wouldn’t actually be happy with the result of him changing.

But he can get 597 replies 6,359 retweets, and 29,513 likes in 16 minutes with a 5 word tweet and a childhood memory. That's my Elon! I think I'll hodl, thank you very much.

EDIT: 1 Hour

• 16,467 Retweets
• 81,955 Likes

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 16m16 minutes ago​

"And I am forever grateful"​

597 replies 6,359 retweets 29,513 likes