powertoold
Active Member
Oh God, not this again. Bankwupt narrative is back. I thought this would be over with after the capital raise. We already went through 2 layoffs in the last year alone. How much more cost cutting do we need?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I agree with some of this but strongly disagree with 3-4. This may just seem that way when you read the daily FUD and have an overextended and overleveraged portfolio, but if you actually look at whats been happening, or just take your Model 3 for a spin and see all the other happy Model 3 owners on the road, we are actually in pretty good shape.
1. maxwell acquisition went through, I bet this lays the groundwork for the Tesla Semi and Roadster 2.0 and the clock isnt just starting to tick now on that.
2. capraise happened before recession or 'the-one-who-we-should-not-name' starts his 'lets get you all behind me to support me' Iran war
3. canada deliveries are rumored to have picked up because of incentives
4. sentry mode and dashcam feature gets more press lately, great story talking to people
5. tesla insurance is going to make many people switch
6. FSD may not mean robotaxi yet, but the demo of what it can do today was amazing, and I can't wait to get my HW3 upgrade and incremental software updates that take us way past what NoA does today. For sure I expect Uber and Lyft valuation to shift over to tesla along the way.
7. 370 mile range on Model S-LR, 325 on Model X-LR. I did not see that coming that quickly.
8. FCA may not be the only carmaker stuffing tesla with bailout money. Outside of the US and Russia, global warming is actually being prioritized and we will see more pressure to buy electric cars in the near future, in Europe and China.
9. Home batteries / Powerpacks demand with growing solar buildout is another consequence of that.
10. Increasing operational efficiency helps be the ones that can meet demand of tigher margin products unlike legacy carmakers that now still think they can just subsidize their upcoming EV fleet of high priced cars. ICE inventory may become a burden sooner than they expected.
I really hope tesla stays independent and figures it all out themselves, like they have been for the last 10 years. I think they are on the right track.
So besides the fact that Q1 sucked what is the other evidence at this point that Tesla can't deliver 90k this quarter? The Model S/X is refreshed and they have a good reason to clear out all old inventory. The SR+ is available in Europe and China. RHD cars might make this quarter. To me I see margin being low but I don't see 90k as an impossible delivery number.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I am happy to see so many Tesla’s on the road. But by no means does that indicate that we are in great shape. Every layperson I talk to thinks Tesla is going bankrupt. To us who love Tesla and see plenty of Tesla’s - we are simply reinforcing our own personal bias. The reality is the general public has a very negative perception of Tesla due to the FUD you cited.
To respond to some of your other points, Maxwell acquisition is great but will likely have a 1-2 year period of R&D and then implementation. Nothing imminent happening here. Tesla insurance is unlikely to be a money maker for Tesla, I’m not even sure it will be a compelling usable product. I do agree with your Canada, sentry mode, FCA points.
Maxwell had already been working with a partner and had akready demonstrated a 20% boost over current cells. Your 1-2 year period may have started a while ago.
I do think the Maxwell tech is not needed for the Semi and Roaster, but it wouldn't hurt.
Tesla would not set rates to make money, the point is to pull costs in house on repairs and lower total cost of ownership. It may also be a necessity in the Tesla Network and higher value FSD space (real cost vs future revenue value) .
Let us know when customers start receiving those refreshed S/X. Been a few weeks now since they opened orders for them.
Customers have started receiving the raven refreshed vehicles...
I particularly agree with #3. In my view the core Tesla mission is robotaxis and they have to focus on those things most directly supportive of that mission. I’d like to see a partnership with Daimler or similar on the semi program. It’s a great opportunity but they don’t have the sufficient cushion for the risk required. Tesla has screwed the pooch so badly the last 2 years they need to face their situation a little more soberly than lists of high risk road map projects.
You're wrong. "Same consideration" means "same consideration", i.e. 0.0193 shares of TSLA stock for each share of MXWL. The reason the term "consideration" is used rather than "payment" is specificially because the consideration is non-cash.
This is not a question open to debate. I am correct, you are incorrect. This is easy enough to verify from the merger documents or the Delaware tender offer laws. Sorry to get snippy, but you should do your homework before you post.
Plenty of speculation there, but the 41% California assumptions are historically correct.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
No "is great but" about the Maxwell acquisition. People will look back and scoff at the negativity and be baffled at the market action at the time this happened.
You can fool some of the people, ... but then you know the rest.
Don’t spend the nickel you make off my response all in one place.
Nice word "scoff." Thanks @Krugerrand.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Not just shareholders - he doesn't help Tesla with such statements. The message anyway was directed to people who do procurements. That is not a lot of people - Musk should have called a meeting and told them this - instead sending email.
I've said this before - a large number of people shy away from buying Tesla because of FUD about financial stability. Musk should not give ammunition to Fudsters. It hurts Tesla sales.
S/X production rates for the first half of the quarter, while the Raven switchover was still happening, were poor, meaning they'll probably come in at 15K-20K produced (and they did say they wouldn't be back to the usual 25K run rate in Q2). They're actually trying to *increase* Model 3 inventory in transit at the end of the quarter, so to hit the total target, they need to produce 75K-85K Model 3, or 5800/week - 6500/week average. Model 3 has never yet sustained a weekly production rate that high for a whole quarter. The Gigafactory cell production -- which was a Q1 bottleneck -- is supposed to get new, faster machines/tooling in *June*, not earlier. Although some breathing room on cell supply was created by shipping more shorter-range cars, the late date of line improvement makes it seem unlikely that they're already up to the target rate. There's the evidence.
It's certainly not impossible, but it would require that Model 3 is up to a consistent, reliable production rate higher than it has ever reached before. Would be great news if they achieved it, especially if they achieved it without drawing inventory in transit down.
Here's the 10 page thread on TMC on NEMA 14-50 adapters no longer being included
NEMA 14-50 adapter no longer included with vehicles
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Shush, are you crazy? The rules are that you have to talk about 1 bullish item at a time on this thread. Anymore and you get labelled. I setup this thread a while back for less enlightened folk like you:
Super Bulls Only
Note: it's secret so don't tell anyone.
@DocZ, About the layperson, I am not sure if I agree with this or disagree. Most people do not follow Tesla like we do. Nor do they follow the FUD like we do. I, like you, live in California. I meet plenty of layperson who are impressed with Tesla and are not tuned into the FUD at all. I meet a few who believe in the FUD of which I explain to them the disinformation from the shorts and oil barons of which they seem to then understand. But my favorites are the people I meet who are not Tesla fanatics at all but quickly, and on their own realize and state to me, "of course that's all fake news and FUD, whatya' expect from the oil companies and climate deniers".
We have laypersons at all these levels of beliefs about Tesla, the big question is what is positive layperson vs. negative layperson ratio? With the huge numbers we see of Model 3's, it's possible the FUD (outside of stock price) is not all that effective on the car buying public.
Oh yeah, and of course, where there are a lot of Tesla's, there is a lot of people getting to ride or drive in their friend's Tesla's. It becomes the Lilly Pad Effect.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Well, do you tell them that they're just flat out wrong, that Tesla is profitable and has $4 billion in cash, and that even if something happened to the company there are so many cars on the road that someone else would just buy Tesla, like Google offered to do back in 2013? That's what I say. Tends to change their minds.
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