Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[InDaClub]

Because they are rats and they only come out in darkness (pun intended).

Oh nooooooooo - it's the ghost of Anstandswauwau

 

[elasalle]

Oh nooooooooo - it's the ghost of Anstandswauwau

View attachment 409954

Oh No!! Elvis hasn't left the building

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I have no concerns about demand for the following reasons:

• RHD model 3 isn't even available yet. I predict strong demand in the UK. We have high fuel prices and narrow roads. M3 is way better suited to us than S/X. Plus we have no rolling coal style nonsense.
• The massive price swings confused and annoyed people. We need some time to pass with stable prices so people feel confident that the price wont drop tomorrow.
• A bunch of people probably believed the hype about e-tron, I-pace etc. Thats fading now, and direct comparisons are showing people tesla is the best choice in most cases.
• It was a long time without an S/X refresh. This may not be the final change, but it is *a* change, which reduces FOMO.
• Autopilot progress has been described in greater detail. It seems very unlikely that HW3 will be old tech for a long time, so people are more likely to accept that they can buy an FSD car now, and not worry that it doesnt have HW3.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This car will never self drive.

Wait, doesn't this Alfa count as competition for the Roadster2 ? See, no driver.

Spoiler

Cheers!

 

[FreqFlyer]

We've achieved a new low!

No, not talking SP - the complete garbage, emotion and drivel being spewed here. Can you please raise it up a notch - 20 pages in a day and I have learnt nothing. What a waste of talent.

20 pages on GOT would have been a much more enjoyable waste of time!

Are you signing the petition to have Season 8 redone? .............................I kid, I kid.

 

[neroden]

More... By far. Progress has been incredible, but putting up walls and a roof is very different than building out a factory that can produce a finished product as complicated as a car.

Is it? The major advantage the Shanghai factory has is that they're mostly copying an existing line. I'm sure they're planning a few improvements in layout (no packing things too close together),... but they've probably already ordered essentially all the equipment and know where it's going. We know they've ordered the Model *Y* machines already, so I think we can assume the Shanghai machines have also been ordered. If it's essentially the same as the Fremont line, it's a pretty cut-and-dried installation job. They should have cars coming out in September.

...which is not to say that they'll have a lot of cars coming out in September. Remember how long it took to ramp up from the first Model 3 to 3000/week?

 

[ebyard]

RHD model 3 isn't even available yet. I predict strong demand in the UK.

We know for a fact that around 4500 orders have been placed so far, possibly more. That is from a reliable Tesla source.

 

[Majorgroove]

Anyone else notice that used Model S inventory is only 100 in USA where a few months ago it was over 1k. I think Tesla is getting hit by their generous warranty repairs hence Tesla are trying to get out of used car business by lowballing the trade ins, converting lease returns to loaners. Thoughts?

 

[jerry33]

Anyone else notice that used Model S inventory is only 100 in USA where a few months ago it was over 1k. I think Tesla is getting hit by their generous warranty repairs hence Tesla are trying to get out of used car business by lowballing the trade ins, converting lease returns to loaners. Thoughts?

Tesla has always paid wholesale on trade-ins. That hasn't changed. Using returns as service loaners is just good business because the cost is lower and it frees up a new car sale.

 

[LJS22]

Most insane stock I’ve seen. TSLA is one good quarterly report away from returning from the “grave” and getting its losses this year back.

 

[neroden]

I just read a report that I think may be relevant:
Who is winning the global lithium ion battery arms race? | Benchmark Minerals

Shows a big difference between capacity and manufacturing. Tesla and Panasonic seem to be wining in manufacturing, but LG Chem and CATL seem to have more capacity.

LG Chem's attitude of blackmailing its customers (they did it to VW) is not going to go over well. They also appear to be a high cost producer. They'll be around for a while, but I'm sort of writing them off now.

BYD is serious, of course. CATL is very serious and I've even been tempted to invest.

 

[elasalle]

Comparable savings are probably available for trucks delivering cars from the factory to the delivery centers. Even if they have to start slow with Giga-Fremont runs first, then California car deliveries, if Tesla saves $100K/year for each truck they build, that's pretty close to being a one-year payback period; it is well worth spending the money on. If they then have to build a couple of Megachargers costing a few milion each to support the longer delivery routes, as long as there are a lot of trucks running each route, it'll still be worth it. Extension to the Seattle/Portland/Vancouver route would come next, or the Phoenix. One car delivery route at a time.

Currently we have 2 Semi's. (In Q1 they delivered to a few customers and bought it up as a big accomplishment in Conf call)

One good way to test, advertise etc all at the same time would be for Tesla to increase their Semi prototypes to like 10-20. These Semi's could then be seen on route b/w Fre and Giga constantly -- no more Sci-Fi anymore

 

[neroden]

Maybe someone close to him is buying these shares, no idea

Well, there are some institutions which have decided to buy big at these fire-sale prices.

Ross Gerber on Twitter

There will be more. The current price really assumes total failure of the company, and seems to be based on ridiculous, lunatic ideas about "demand shortages" which are hilarious.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla is the 6th most popular brand in California!

Brand....CA March YTD..................YTD % Share

1. Toyota........75,730...........,............................16.3
2. Honda........59,859........................................12.9
3. Ford...........39,811.........................................8.6
4. Chevrolet...34,833.........................................7.5
5. Nissan........26,914........................................5.8
6. Tesla...........20,491..................................4.4
7. Subaru........17,803............................,...........3.8
8. Merc Benz...17,776.......................................3.8
9. Kia...............16.073......................................3.5
10. Hyundai......14,790........................................3.2
11. Lexus............14,597......................................3.1
12. Jeep............14.545.......................................3.1
13. BMW.............14,434.....................................3.1
14. Volkswagen..11,447......................................2.5
15. Mazda...........11,155......................................2.4
16. Ram.............8,983........................................1.9
17. Dodge..........8,964........................................1.9
18. Audi..............8,803........................................1.9
19. GMC............7.114 ........................................1.5
20. Acura ...........5,306........................................1.1
21. Land Rover ...4,808.......................................1.0
22. Infiniti............4,588........................................1.0
23. Porsche........3,668........................................0.8
24. Mitsubishi.....3,176.........................................0.7
25. Volvo.............2,750........................................0.6
26. Chrysler........2,712........................................0.6
27. Cadillac.........2,545........................................0.5
28. Buick.............2,043.........................................0.4
29. Mini................2,000........................................0.4
30. Jaguar............1,745........................................0.4
31. Lincoln...........1,439........................................0.3
32. Alfa Romeo.....935..........................................0.2
33. Fiat..................351..........................................0.1
34. Genesis...........149..........................................0.0

Total............... 463,835..................................100


https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-19.pdf
Info Released today 5/20/2019

 

[acoste]

Tesla can't sell the new S and X right now due to government regulators not yet approving them, as a result deliveries are delayed.

Search for "Tesla Not Allowed to Sell the New Model S & X Cars" on Youtube.

Five people managed to disagree with something I guess they don't know about and didn't bother checking it.

The source is Eli Burton

 

[Remus]

Take it from me: Tesla's sales/delivery experience has been a crappy mess since 2013. I remember when they didn't understand how NY's car insurance system worked and kept asking for insurance before giving me a VIN number -- you can't get insurance without a VIN number. Had to demand the phone number of a local NY person to get the problem straightened out, took weeks.

In other words, the crappiness of sales/delivery experience hasn't really changed. :-( The Q4 deliveries just brought it into sharp relief, and maybe finally brought it to the attention of top management, who had been ignoring it for five years. They REALLY need to fix it. But it hasn't deterred too many people from buying the cars for the last 6 years....

same here. we took delivery april 2018 when the delivery center was not that busy. They kept us there for four hours and we were really pissed off, especially my wife who did not understand what's the fuss about the damn car in the first place.

 

[Joe F]

These kinds of things are done in secret. Not so secretly, Loup Ventures recently attempted to count Model 3's coming out of the factory back in Q2 2018 I believe. I'm not sure how much they have under management but its not that expensive to have boots on the ground to count things.

Haven't you or Loopy heard? Elon has a boring machine: Can't count cars you can't see. They're safely transported to a parking lots everywhere, where they just sit collecting dust, waiting to be dropped off the back of a RORO.

What a sad thing to do: What do you do for a living?
I count cars. I'm an excellent counter.

What next, some jerk is going to follow Tesla's around and try to crash into them?

 

[neroden]

What are the chances of the following:
TSLA EV growth to 1M cars a year in next 5 years? I say 25%.

In FIVE years? 100%.

MXWL integration next 3 years? 50%

100%

Increased capacity for all models next 3 years using MXWL tech to scale? 10%

100%

TAAS as being sold by EM next 3 years? 5%

0%

Your probabilities make no sense.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Tesla is the 6th most popular brand in California!

Brand....CA March YTD..................YTD % Share

1. Toyota........75,730...........,............................16.3
2. Honda........59,859........................................12.9
3. Ford...........39,811.........................................8.6
4. Chevrolet...34,833.........................................7.5
5. Nissan........26,914........................................5.8
6. Tesla...........20,491..................................4.4
7. Subaru........17,803............................,...........3.8
8. Merc Benz...17,776.......................................3.8
9. Kia...............16.073......................................3.5
10. Hyundai......14,790........................................3.2
11. Lexus............14,597......................................3.1
12. Jeep............14.545.......................................3.1
13. BMW.............14,434.....................................3.1
14. Volkswagen..11,447......................................2.5
15. Mazda...........11,155......................................2.4
16. Ram.............8,983........................................1.9
17. Dodge..........8,964........................................1.9
18. Audi..............8,803........................................1.9
19. GMC............7.114 ........................................1.5
20. Acura ...........5,306........................................1.1
21. Land Rover ...4,808.......................................1.0
22. Infiniti............4,588........................................1.0
23. Porsche........3,668........................................0.8
24. Mitsubishi.....3,176.........................................0.7
25. Volvo.............2,750........................................0.6
26. Chrysler........2,712........................................0.6
27. Cadillac.........2,545........................................0.5
28. Buick.............2,043.........................................0.4
29. Mini................2,000........................................0.4
30. Jaguar............1,745........................................0.4
31. Lincoln...........1,439........................................0.3
32. Alfa Romeo.....935..........................................0.2
33. Fiat..................351..........................................0.1
34. Genesis...........149..........................................0.0

Total............... 463,835..................................100


https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-19.pdf
Info Released today 5/20/2019

Well obviously everyone in that list below Tesla is going bankrupt...

 

[kakamora]

Musk would have gained a lot with a "serious" public figure for the company like Erich Schmidt was for Larry Page / Sergey Brin (not the products / vision / fun, just the boring, financial stuff).

How about Erlich Bachman for the public figure head. Hear he is available now.