Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

We're living in the future. Starlink site is up (if this hasn't been shared yet).

Starlink

Anyone else think the Ion thrusters make the number of satellites in this constellation a non-issue as they can move around based on the exit point of a spacecraft from Earth's orbit? I'm not credible in saying whether that's accurate or not, just imagining something cool.

attitude = optimistic?

 

[Garlands]

I actually think the next catalyst may be the release of smart/enhanced summon. If it is faster and more capable than the earlier videos we saw, and can actually navigate through a real parking lot with traffic, demand for the car may skyrocket. Viral videos will be everywhere. Also, people may actually start believing that Tesla may be in the lead for self driving cars.

 

[ZachShahan]

So, Elon's Mom?

Maye Musk on Twitter

Haha, I think someone tied into Tesla's operations a little more. But she is wonderful. Was great, too, that she followed @CleanTechnica and did such a good job highlighting those reports.

Incidentally, we all decided it was getting a bit too combative and then the Tesla factory tour messed up the routine of our Dutch guy leading that project and our YouTube channel, so it's "on pause."

She's wonderful at messaging the air quality and climate topics and would be cool to see her on TV some.

But I really don't understand why Tesla doesn't have someone who can go on CNBC or such and quickly knock down all the nonsense that gets passed around there.

 

[bdy0627]

Dropbox - TSLA-Morgan Stanley call-5-22-19.MP3 - Simplify your life
the whole call was under the impression that Tesla may have a lasting demand problem which is not proven at all.

It was all predicated on this - permanent softening of demand relative to Tesla's, and the market's, expectation. In a nutshell, the growth story is over. As you've indicated, it's a little early to be jumping to such a dramatic conclusion based upon one quarter of data when there was so much going on that would be expected to negatively impact deliveries. Clearly, the market has jumped to the same conclusion in a very dramatic fashion. It's certainly concerning when an institution owning 10% of the shares bails. However, my understanding is that TRP had a change in the growth fund manager that led to selling most of the TSLA shares. I believe much of the selling of those shares was done even before the feverish concerns over demand popped up. The real buyers of the demand softening narrative are of course the shorts, and they have shorted to the tune of over 14 million more shares over the last 5 months. Combine that with momentum traders and margin calls, and here we are.

 

[JohnDinger]

First time poster (long time lurker)...

As my user name suggests, I am about to make, by far, the largest bet of my life and will be buying 1,000 shares of Tesla once the funds clear in about a week or so. I will be using a good amount of borrowed money to make the purchase (which includes some margin from my broker as well).

Fortunately, I have a pretty good and steady job that would allow me to pay back any loses within 4-5 years or so if things go south (I am a CPA as well so even if I lose my job I should be able to fine another one fairly quickly in my market). The way I see it, I am borrowing from my future to buy Tesla at this level today, as opposed to buying the same number of shares over the next 4-5 years.

I would never recommend this to anyone and am still having second thoughts myself but on my death bed I will look back at this and say I am glad that I did it (whether it works out for me or not).

Good luck to all but especially Tesla!

This is a bad investment strategy. No one should be investing 4-5 years worth of savings into a single stock.


The wise regret of most wealthy men:

"I wish I'd bet more."

 

[ZachShahan]

So, Elon's Mom?

Maye Musk on Twitter

Haha, I think someone tied into Tesla's operations a little more. But she is wonderful. Was great, too, that she followed @CleanTechnica and did such a good job highlighting those reports.

Incidentally, we all decided it was getting a bit too combative and then the Tesla factory tour messed up the routine of our Dutch guy leading that project and our YouTube channel, so it's "on pause."

She's wonderful at messaging the air quality and climate topics and would be cool to see her on TV some.

But I really don't understand why Tesla doesn't have someone who can go on CNBC or such and quickly knock down all the nonsense that gets passed around there.

 

[Garlands]

I actually think the next catalyst may be the release of smart/enhanced summon. If it is faster and more capable than the earlier videos we saw, and can actually navigate through a real parking lot with traffic, demand for the car may skyrocket. Viral videos will be everywhere. Also, people may actually start believing that Tesla may be in the lead for self driving cars.

 

[printf42]

OT

If Starlink is successful and deploys their 12,000 satellites I think it is a guarantee Tesla will have their cars on that network.

The antenna size right now is the size of a pizza box for a slice. You don't think they could hide that within the car (Like they currently do with the FM antenna).

Besides this is 5 years out or so. Lots can change by then.

Lots of things could change in 5yrs, but probably physics is not among them.

Current iteration of Starlink is targeting high speed connections for (semi)stationary clients with no power constraints.
Superchargers(at least remote ones) would definitely be on the network.
If Elon has any plan for making it work on cars too, we should have known about it already.
(Don’t bring up SiriusXM, that doesn’t have uplink)

Next iteration might target mobile clients as well, but that’s probably >> 5yrs away.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Also planes and ships don't have line-of-site issues. I must admit I wouldn't have thought it could work from a plane until the last few minutes lol. So now I go to line-of-site issues. But I have to just throw up my hands and say 'who knows.' I'm sure it won't work in tunnels but anywhere else with so many satellites it might be able to find line-of-sight to one of them.

I’m sure repeaters can be set up for tunnels and subways the way cell coverage is now.

 

[Cherry Wine]

First time poster (long time lurker)...

As my user name suggests, I am about to make, by far, the largest bet of my life and will be buying 1,000 shares of Tesla once the funds clear in about a week or so. I will be using a good amount of borrowed money to make the purchase (which includes some margin from my broker as well).

Fortunately, I have a pretty good and steady job that would allow me to pay back any loses within 4-5 years or so if things go south (I am a CPA as well so even if I lose my job I should be able to fine another one fairly quickly in my market). The way I see it, I am borrowing from my future to buy Tesla at this level today, as opposed to buying the same number of shares over the next 4-5 years.

I would never recommend this to anyone and am still having second thoughts myself but on my death bed I will look back at this and say I am glad that I did it (whether it works out for me or not).

Good luck to all but especially Tesla!

I wish you luck. Since you're borrowing money, a hedge might not be a bad idea in case the unthinkable happens.

 

[ZachShahan]

You really need to read the Cleantechnica interview.



Jerome — The Man, The Myth, The Tesla Super-Engineer — #CleanTechnica Interview | CleanTechnica

BTW, @ZachShahan , how come no audio podcast version of this interview? Great work on the other podcasts and the youtube videos

Thanks.

The audio is fun. They didn't want us to record initially, but we agreed to not release it and just use for checking our notes — but also left open the possibility of publishing it as a podcast if they were cool with that in the end. Haven't checked yet, but still hoping for that.

If not ... I have another idea for special friends and supporters. We'll see...

 

[Boomer19]

Do you know where exactly it was posted and who posted it?
Do you know if there is more stuff like this (also research reports of the analysts) available somewhere?
I think it would be pretty cool to have a collection of it.

no i don’t sorry

there was a lot i disagree with in the call

he clearly has agenda to scare the hell out of the investors listening. he knew it would get out into the open. he had a chip on his shoulder after media questioned his $10 call, even tho his more likely targets are much higher.

that call was all about the $10 target though.
it was clearly manipulation. he orchestrated it to a tee...and that’s why he’s (and similar) viewed as slimy by most straight-shooters. but this isn’t surprising

 

[Nocturnal]

I met a friend who sells Audi this morning. Along with the coffee shop owner, we shared views of electric cars. Of course he was annoyed that I bought a Tesla. Regardless, the sales guy dissed Tesla, so far as saying how much he hates the CEO and the company as a whole. Reason #1 from his perspective, Tesla destroyed the auto (sales) industry. The sales guy quickly went on to talk about range, in that you have to keep these things charged. You know where that goes, no argument after I explained SC availability and recharging from 20% to 90% in 50 minutes and convenience of charging nightly from low amperage outlets in a pinch to the more typical 14-50 configuration. And that if neither of those are possible, we have PlugShare and ability to use the public charging infrastructure if all else fails. Thereafter it was the argument of maintenance, battery replacement, all the usual BS. I took a moment to explain maintenance concerns and warranty, suddenly he'd come around. We didn't even get into discussing AP, EAP, dare I say FSD, NoA, how it works, what works well, what doesn't, when to use, when not to, firmware updates that aim to improve the experience of riding the hardware. To me that is the icing on the cake. Maybe we just need more of the pro-EV writers to publish articles to distill and better inform those on the sideline or seemingly on the defense?

Next time you see him remind him that Audi has committed to have 50% of their vehicles be EVs by 2025.

 

[ZachShahan]

When I talked with him he didn’t seem against the idea. He said he was busy enough. He did say though dealing with corporate/business customers for the Semi is refreshing because it’s all about numbers and spreadsheets for them.

Always surprising when people open up and are so frank about things they probably wouldn't want to tell everyone. For some reason, he was a bit open about that.

The cool thing is how much he lit up every time he talked about the Semi project. Really loves this work. And seemed to be quite comfortable in the corner there with the program leads for Model 3, Y, S/X. Clearly, he works a lot, but I think he loves what he does.

Thanks for the link. Did @ZachShahan ever publish the second part of that interview?

2nd part was supposed to come this weekend, but I haven't gone through the audio to write it up yet. Got too caught up on this thread this week and too many good stories from here to cover. But will still try for tomorrow.

 

[ZachShahan]

It was all predicated on this - permanent softening of demand relative to Tesla's, and the market's, expectation. In a nutshell, the growth story is over. As you've indicated, it's a little early to be jumping to such a dramatic conclusion based upon one quarter of data when there was so much going on that would be expected to negatively impact deliveries. Clearly, the market has jumped to the same conclusion in a very dramatic fashion. It's certainly concerning when an institution owning 10% of the shares bails. However, my understanding is that TRP had a change in the growth fund manager that led to selling most of the TSLA shares. I believe much of the selling of those shares was done even before the feverish concerns over demand popped up. The real buyers of the demand softening narrative are of course the shorts, and they have shorted to the tune of over 14 million more shares over the last 5 months. Combine that with momentum traders and margin calls, and here we are.

I wish I could give this an "informative" and <3 rating. This is quite interesting: "However, my understanding is that TRP had a change in the growth fund manager that led to selling most of the TSLA shares." That makes sense and could explain a lot about this waterfall.

 

[avoigt]

Thanks for the informative post. But next time be a little bit more generic in your source and location. We love the inside scoops and news but we do not want to get anyone in trouble.

Doubting that an employee in Europe would be in the know about Tesla battery break through tech.

Its been two people actually interviewing him one of those me so he had no problem with disclosing information just did not want to be named.

You may doubt his insights into Tesla NA but be careful. He told me Tesla hired him directly without him having thought about leaving the German automaker at all. He had a very deep and profound knowledge so this is not a usual delivery or service clerk. He behaved differently too and made in an other situation sure I do not get specific information he did not feel comfortable with. So he acted like he knows very well what he is doing.

Still appreciate all your care for him and that makes sense.

P.S: I should add that the information posted is coming from two separate sources out of Germany too.

 

[elasalle]

First time poster (long time lurker)...

As my user name suggests, I am about to make, by far, the largest bet of my life and will be buying 1,000 shares of Tesla once the funds clear in about a week or so. I will be using a good amount of borrowed money to make the purchase (which includes some margin from my broker as well).

Fortunately, I have a pretty good and steady job that would allow me to pay back any loses within 4-5 years or so if things go south (I am a CPA as well so even if I lose my job I should be able to fine another one fairly quickly in my market). The way I see it, I am borrowing from my future to buy Tesla at this level today, as opposed to buying the same number of shares over the next 4-5 years.

I would never recommend this to anyone and am still having second thoughts myself but on my death bed I will look back at this and say I am glad that I did it (whether it works out for me or not).

Good luck to all but especially Tesla!

Looks like you got 1 disagree, hope that's not your spouse

All the best. There are a few cases of HELOC and bet the house in TMC from a while back ...

 

[avoigt]

I suggest you to delete this post ASAP, someone will be in trouble and lose his job

No worries he was disclosing this to two people present and did know even that I write articles without asking me to keep this for myself which I would have . Discussed with him that disclosing matter. Believe he does know very well what he is doing.

Don't worry but appreciate your care.

 

[goinfraftw]

OT

Lots of things could change in 5yrs, but probably physics is not among them.

Current iteration of Starlink is targeting high speed connections for (semi)stationary clients with no power constraints.
Superchargers(at least remote ones) would definitely be on the network.
If Elon has any plan for making it work on cars too, we should have known about it already.
(Don’t bring up SiriusXM, that doesn’t have uplink)

Next iteration might target mobile clients as well, but that’s probably >> 5yrs away.

:shrug:

Is it possible for an infrastructure to be set up to tack-on with the current LTE infra, that AT&T provides, with Starlink as kind of a BGP without the Border solution? It's similar to what Twilio and Google Voice provide trying to obfuscate the provider from the super network as you roam. Thus, you not only have redundancy of the connection between space and land networks, but you also don't need to worry about line-of-sight past what's already available (and could grow pretty easily). I'd assume that it's pretty significant from a ISP service for something like this that could generate a lot more revenue cross-country, roaming, and a variety of IoT use cases.

 

[elasalle]

Inside the mind of Adam Jonas:

1. New Company .. building a factory, < 20K cars (2013 Tesla, 2019 Rivian) ... lots of potential, buy, PT $450
2. Young company, > 250K cars. Struggling company .. PT$10

Inside the mind of Adam Jonas:
1. Encourage new company to take lots of debt, IPO etc. (with Morgan Stanley being one of the under writers). Encourage investors to buy the debt.
2. Once company takes on the debt, flip flop to unsustainable debt, restructuring.