Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TNEVol]

SoGA Fan Club recently posted a quote from EM which basically promised profitability from Q3-4 on. I don't recall that because I thought it was cash flow positive but i may be wrong. One of you surely can provide the accurate language. I realize Q1 was likely an anomaly for many reasons but cash flow positive seems more likely than a profit prediction for the growth Tesla is expecting. Thanks

 

[trentbridge]

OT



This is just a totally weird list. No pattern to it at all.

Places where lots of people work shifts? If all the folks were working 9-5 it is hard to work in that "afternoon delight" and not be worried about where the spouse is...

 

[sparcs]

I want to believe, but man am I skeptical of "breakthroughs" these days.

it's just someone promoting some newly published research. Could be decades before there is any real world application.

 

[neroden]

OT

I agree. This reminds me of the newspaper articles that pop up a few times a year claiming some lab has found the cure for cancer. It's always in some rat model and means nothing for potential human use.

I always wonder why we don't have amazing cancer-free rats now.

(We don't.)

Those lab results mean even less than they appear to... they aren't even curing cancer in rats. My friend's pet rat died of cancer.

I always wonder why that particular lab's work percolated up to catch media's interest.

 

[shrspeedblade]

@Drax7 or anyone else, can you provide links or other information to back up this information that Tamberrino's clients are predominantly hedge funds that are short? I'm trying to get some solid information on the characteristics of his clients. Much appreciated, and I think the TMC investors would be interested as well. Thx!

Somebody with better finance detective skills than I have will have to turn up something, but the obvious on Tamberrino of course in regard to Tesla:

And certainly a monkey throwing darts (and I should know) would be a far more lucrative investment adviser.
Him giving Tesla a downgrade should be viewed in a similar vein as Trump calling CNN fake news: unsurprising and infuriating in how overblown it will be.

On a different note: I stumbled across that the Twitter "Quoth the Raven" permabear and Peter Schiff are buds! My what webs they weave...

 

[TradingInvest]

Honestly, we all know that CR has been negative on Tesla the last couple years, but there's a good reason the X is on their top 5 most unreliable cars list. We want an X, but after spending a couple years (after the X went into production) reading all the nightmarish problems people were having with them, I knew we'd never buy one. I had one for 2 weeks as a loaner - oh my!! What a car. In function, it's truly amazing. But, there's just too much that can go wrong - and often does.

What have your problems been? I'm hoping you say the falcon wing doors. I'd love to buy an X as it is, minus those doors. The self presenting doors are totally awesome. Wish the S had that also.

Did the Model X give you any trouble during that 2 weeks? or you just think lots of things could go wrong? I don't own a Model X. My friend has been driving one for more than a year, towing boats, he said everything has been perfect. Tesloop has 8 Model X, most of them passed 300,000 miles. You can read their blog about these cars. They wrote a detailed blog about their oldest Model X, it's for commercial use, those falcon wing doors are used many times everyday, based on their blog, never had a problem.

 

[Electroman]

My friend's pet rat died of cancer.

My pet cockraoch too. Once I knew he has cancer, I smashed him on the head three times and poor guy died. it is a travesty there is still no cure for cancer in roaches.

 

[SPadival]

Anyone save a copy of that Medium article? It seems to have been deleted.

Why??? It’s been deleted for a good reason - gross invasion of Lis’s privacy.

 

[EVNow]

So here is the highlight from GS research note.

GS sees 760k units by 2025. how stupid is that? Tesla could make >760k next year if China Giga is at full force.

View attachment 421311


Someone shared the the note on twitter.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9f2vcFWsAA0_o3?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9f2vcFWsAEHUYY?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9f2vcGX4AA60tL?format=jpg&name=large

This is so sloppy on so many levels.

According to ev sales blog - Total plugins is 2M in 2018, out of which 69% is BEV (1.4M) and with Tesla being 245k - that works out to 18%.

But this Goldman Genius thinks Tesla has a current market share of 30% ! Sloppy.

ps : He thinks in 2022 Tesla will sell 740k of S, X & 3. (no mention of Y). BUT, in 2025, they will only sell 760k of S, X, 3, Y, Pickup & Semi !!

Basically there are only a limited number of people who will ever buy a Tesla. As Tesla introduces more models, the same set of people buy different models, so we see 100% cannibalization and absolutely no expansion. That includes Semi

 

[EVNow]

Actually I experienced something very similar, only difference is that as I am trying to change to the lane to my right, the car screamed at me and the turning wheel refuse to budge.

Same here today. When I was about to change lane, it screamed - and I didn't change. It was perhaps a bit too close.

 

[TradingInvest]

This is so sloppy on so many levels.

According to ev sales blog - Total plugins is 2M in 2018, out of which 69% is BEV (1.4M) and with Tesla being 245k - that works out to 18%.

But this Goldman Genius thinks Tesla has a current market share of 30% ! Sloppy.

ps : He thinks in 2022 Tesla will sell 740k of S, X & 3. (no mention of Y). BUT, in 2025, they will only sell 760k of S, X, 3, Y, Pickup & Semi !!

Basically there are only a limited number of people who will ever buy a Tesla. As Tesla introduces more models, the same set of people buy different models, so we see 100% cannibalization and absolutely no expansion. That includes Semi

I think Tony Seba's prediction is very likely to come true, that is, "buy 2025 every new vehicle will be electric."

I used to think his prediction is too aggressive, maybe 1/3 of new vehicles will be electric by 2025. Now I think he could be right. In the next few years, EVs will continue to get better (we can see how fast Tesla is improving their cars), cost goes lower due to scale, autonomous driving may start to commercialize. Meanwhile, as ICE cars' demand goes down, their cost will go up. It's likely that by 2025 most of the vehicle demand will be EV, though supply may not be enough to meet the demand.

If 2025 EV demand is 40 million, Tesla takes 20% of the market, that would be 8 million Tesla demand per year by 2025. This is my base scenario.

 

[EVNow]

I think Tony Seba's prediction is very likely to come true, that is, "buy 2025 every new vehicle will be electric."

I used to think his prediction is too aggressive, maybe 1/3 of new vehicles will be electric by 2025. Now I think he could be right. In the next few years, EVs will continue to get better (we can see how fast Tesla is improving their cars), cost goes lower due to scale, autonomous driving may start to commercialize. Meanwhile, as ICE cars' demand goes down, their cost will go up. It's likely that by 2025 most of the vehicle demand will be EV, though supply may not be enough to meet the demand.

If 2025 EV demand is 40 million, Tesla takes 20% of the market, that would be 8 million Tesla demand per year by 2025. This is my base scenario.

I'd assign something like <1% chance of Seba's prediction being true. There is no way world can produce that many EVs by 2025. Essentially the demand has to increase 10x+ (from 3M to 40M) in 6 years. Current EV share is about 2 or 3%. I expect it to be about 15% to 25% i.e. 10M to 15M by 2025, which is quite bullish by itself at 3x growth in 6 years.

I mean, do you think all these OEMs the world over that produce <1% of EVs now, will suddenly produce 100% of EVs in 6 years, when the design of a new car takes 5 years ?!

ps : Goldman thinks in 2025 EVs will sell about 4M (from current 2M).

 

[X Fan]

Did the Model X give you any trouble during that 2 weeks? or you just think lots of things could go wrong? I don't own a Model X. My friend has been driving one for more than a year, towing boats, he said everything has been perfect. Tesloop has 8 Model X, most of them passed 300,000 miles. You can read their blog about these cars. They wrote a detailed blog about their oldest Model X, it's for commercial use, those falcon wing doors are used many times everyday, based on their blog, never had a problem.

The initial Xs had teething pains but the recent units coming off the line are quality products.

FWIW, I have 2 X's and first one <3xxx unit> now has run 35K without issues (for the first 5K we had door latch issues, quarter panel noise and a sensor failure...since then perfect); the second is 12K with no issues. I have no hesitancy referring the X to my friends and my neighbor just received one a couple of months ago based on our feedback (and they love it).

 

[traxila]

Best part of GS write up is no mention of China.

I'd assign something like <1% chance of Seba's prediction being true. There is no way world can produce that many EVs by 2025. Essentially the demand has to increase 10x+ (from 3M to 40M) in 6 years. Current EV share is about 2 or 3%. I expect it to be about 15% to 25% i.e. 10M to 15M by 2025, which is quite bullish by itself at 3x growth in 6 years.

I mean, do you think all these OEMs the world over that produce <1% of EVs now, will suddenly produce 100% of EVs in 6 years, when the design of a new car takes 5 years ?!

ps : Goldman thinks in 2025 EVs will sell about 4M (from current 2M).

The demand will be there. It will be the batteries that are missing.

Goldman is great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity. Not my line, but still 100% true.

Will keep my opinions as to how to deal with them to myself as I will get in trouble.

 

[EVNow]

The demand will be there.

Not at the price EVs will be selling for.

 

[traxila]

Not at the price EVs will be selling for.

Can’t even debate that as the batteries will be missing regardless. Is what it is.

 

[dc_h]

How are the comparative sizes between the GF being built in China over the one in Nevada? The Nevada one is much bigger I suppose?

I’m not sure. Phase one probably smaller, but I couldn’t find an estimate of the square feet. On the latest video I see the tall part of the building that may be offices is 10 stories tall. It will be interesting how dense the plant will be and if the plant will be multiple stories. I’d guess they’ll have the inventory distribution processes they wanted in Fremont.

 

[EVNow]

Oh, good catch. So there is prior evidence that Israeli spy / propaganda agencies are out to get Tesla. We still don't know why.

They are available for hire.

Harvey Weinstein’s Army of Spies

Reports: Intel Firm Was Hired To Discredit Former Obama Iran Deal Negotiators

Private Mossad for Hire

 

[Sancho]

We are reluctantly selling our MX because my wife finds the gullwing doors to be a nuisance. We will lease an ICE car for a few years until MY is available.

So, we stop by a Lexus dealership, and when we tell the salesman we currently have an MX, he says: "yeah, we've had several Tesla owners trade theirs in for a Lexus. Tesla seems like a good car at first, but then the kids get older, and the parents discover they don't have enough range to take their kids to college." When I described how superchargers work, he pretended not to know anything about them.

In our little bubble on this thread, we react in a tizzy to each new FUD spun on a daily basis by the foolish and the manipulators. But in doing so we lose sight of what people are really concerned about: range anxiety.

So here's the advertisement I want to see: Parents take kid to college in their Tesla. As the car pulls up to the dorm, it stops just in front of a recruiting table for the Environmental Action Club. Hugs all around.

 

[SPadival]

They are available for hire.

Harvey Weinstein’s Army of Spies

Reports: Intel Firm Was Hired To Discredit Former Obama Iran Deal Negotiators

Private Mossad for Hire

They are everywhere. Closer to home, a Melbourne man who was an agent was “disappeared” when he fell on the wrong side
Death of Ben Zygier - Wikipedia